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thundersaver #1 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:10

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To make this short for those who want this straight forward: There is possibly a probability factor which affects RNG, which can lead to a lot of game balances and silent nerfs or buffs.


Long Version of the Theory/story/wall of text/misery read/blemish/bullsh*t/in-comprehensive stuff/made up thing

Start the Read:

Ok so let's get down to business about this theory of RNG of mine. I was wondering, since RNG factor plays a part in determining the damage of tanks, such as + - 25%, was there a second mechanism which is in placed which actually breaks up RNG further to different activation stages?

What this means is like a second circuit to the prime circuit which has a logic gate in between which waits for the inputs to react and produce a few different outcomes. This would follow an idea which was swirling in my mind which i would call : "probability factor."

So how this probability factor works is simple, just think of a logic gate with 3 outputs. One is high, the other is neutral and the final one is low.

So with this different stages, when a shell hits the tank, the input is given. Once the input is given it is chosen the stages is chosen and the damage dealt upon the tank varies at which stage of the output is activated.

So this would follow the idea that for example, you hit and penetrate a tank, the following one would expect is a damage given by RNG. So here is how the theory comes into play, before RNG takes affect, one of the three activation stages are picked which are all accompanied by a set chance/ probability of occurring. The set gate would determine a +25%, a 0%, or a -25% multiplier.

So thus the damage is given to the tank as respectively decided upon by RNG from +1 to 25% or -1 to -25% or simply 0%

The reason why this theory can support ninja nerfs, buffs, tank balances or soft stats difference is because the activation of each gate is set by different chance a values. Possibly there maybe only be 2 gates, but who hows, this is just a theory.

So an example would be let's say a Tiger with the 88mm L/71. So firstly a shot from the gun travels to the tank and penetrates it. Now let's give it a random probability factor of 50% chance of a high, 10% chance of a neutral and a 40 % chance of a low. The percentages does not necessarily need to add up to 100%, but i shall do it for this example since is it easier to illustrate the example.

So back to the example, let's say the probability factor of 40% low is taken, thus RNG would decide the numbers of -1 to -25% which is multiplied to the damage. This would thus be a low-roll. But if it happens to hit 50% high, it would range from +1 to +25%.

So in conclusion, if this was in the game, it is a possibility that all guns have different probability factor or possibly a probability coefficient(it can go either way) which would decide on the damage. This is very significant for example, certain tanks seem to hit the chance of a high roll very often, while others are riddled with low-rolls.

In addition, possibly tank guns with almost no improvement in stats such as the 122mm D-25-T and the 122mm D-2-5-T, may have a change not only in reload but also probability factor. Another one would be the M1A2 and the M1A1 75mm tank gun for the American tanks.

However the bad side of this, certain tanks, possibly many of the tank destroyers may suffer from low probability factors. This would be set in place to not only balance the Tank destroyers or tanks with larger tank guns, but also help to maintain their alpha from going too high.

I cannot test this out, but a proposed method would be if anyone is kind enough, to shoot a tank 10 times(if it can stay alive) record the shots whether it is a high or low. Do this for 10 times to get a sample of 100 shots. if more accurate results are desired, 10 to 100 samples can be acquired to determined the tank's probability factor.

However if you are to perform this, you would need to shoot at the same spot of the tank and this places should not(if possible) include tank crew or module. Once result are acquired, see which is the mode figure(figure which occurs the most number of times) of a high or low role. Possibly a neutral role could also be the answer.

This result could be the possible probability factor of the tank gun or perhaps even shell.

There are other possibly theories which include the mass of tank shells(although which is very vague now.) Or onces which could also follow the constant value of normalization, in which there is a coefficient which affects whether the tank gun roles a high or low.

End of long read

So for those who read this i thank you, but i would like the views of everyone who has viewed this on whether it is a possible soft-stat in game, or whether this is pure whatever. Thank you :Smile_Default:

rhino1111 #2 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:30

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Here's what RNG is using 1000 less words.

RNG = Random Number Generator

Every gun has a range for;
Penetration
Damage

Whenever a shell is fired, the RNG randomly selects a number from that range, for both penetration and damage.


All of the other stuff you wrote is nonsense to be honest, no offence.

Edited by rhino1111, Aug 18 2012 - 14:32.


thundersaver #3 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:31

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View Postrhino1111, on Aug 18 2012 - 14:30, said:

Here's what RNG is using 1000 less words.

RNG = Random Number Generator

Every gun has a range for;
Penetration
Damage

Whenever a shell is fired, the RNG randomly selects a number from that range, for both penetration and damage.

:Smile_mellow:

BanzaiBonsai #4 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:34

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I wonder, what part of random is it that people do not understand? RANDOM.... means it is RANDOM... got it? It's the same for every gun and it's all RANDOM, penetration and damage... -+25% for all guns, no exception.... there is no higher probability or ninja buffs/nerfs or anything, at least not in the RNG, take of your tinfoil head..

For those who didn't understand, here the meanings of the word random:
1. Having no specific pattern, purpose, or objective: random movements. See Synonyms at chance.
2. Mathematics & Statistics Of or relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution.
3. Of or relating to an event in which all outcomes are equally likely, as in the testing of a blood sample for the presence of a substance.

thundersaver #5 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:38

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View PostBanzaiBonsai, on Aug 18 2012 - 14:34, said:

I wonder, what part of random is it that people do not understand? RANDOM.... means it is RANDOM... got it? It's the same for every gun, it's all RANDOM... -+25% for all guns, no exception.... there is no higher probability or ninja buffs/nerfs or anything, at least not in the RNG, take of your tinfoil head..

ok, just a thought, but thank you for your view :Smile-hiding:

AK_Stalker #6 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:39

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It's interesting to see people shoot down the OP as if they actually possessed direct knowledge of how the RNG works.

Please... tell us where you got this important information about the internal workings of the game.

rhino1111 #7 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:42

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View PostAK_Stalker, on Aug 18 2012 - 14:39, said:

It's interesting to see people shoot down the OP as if they actually possessed direct knowledge of how the RNG works.

Please... tell us where you got this important information about the internal workings of the game.

http://wiki.worldoft...attle_Mechanics


feel free to read through some of the stuff.

Most importantly these:

http://wiki.worldoft...e_Randomization
http://wiki.worldoft...n_Randomization

Edited by rhino1111, Aug 18 2012 - 14:43.


BanzaiBonsai #8 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:42

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View PostAK_Stalker, on Aug 18 2012 - 14:39, said:

It's interesting to see people shoot down the OP as if they actually possessed direct knowledge of how the RNG works.

Please... tell us where you got this important information about the internal workings of the game.
Well, you can either just trust the devs a little bit (bad idea I know), look at the name and see Random Number Generator and take it as that (also bad idea), or you go into a training battle several times and test it for yourself how many times you get good/bad damage by shooting other tanks ( requires work, bad idea).
The best idea is to just write some stuff down with no source or testing or whatsoever, I mean everyone is free to make a "theory" on anything, but you should try to base it on some evidence at least. Or people will not believe you.

View Postrhino1111, on Aug 18 2012 - 14:42, said:

http://wiki.worldoft...attle_Mechanics

feel free to read through some of the stuff.
Yeah, I guess it's the best not to try and explain anything anymore, just post the wiki link, it's all in there.
But then again, who wrote that wiki anyway? Aliens? Who would believe what's written in there...

thundersaver #9 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:43

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View PostAK_Stalker, on Aug 18 2012 - 14:39, said:

It's interesting to see people shoot down the OP as if they actually possessed direct knowledge of how the RNG works.

Please... tell us where you got this important information about the internal workings of the game.

There is no need for challenging, just like the views provided, whether they are curt. However i do wish they are not :Smile-hiding:

Togashi_Yuuta #10 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:51

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i love all this computer sci stuff. however your method of figuring it out is not complete. you need 2 diffrent tanks with the same gun perferibly same stats.
that would prove that after about 1000 round fired if there are any major deviations to the depressions.
my sugestions would be ether the kv3/is3 with the 122 d2-5t or d25t.
or the e8 and e2 with the m1a2. if you want to see if the same gun over tiers get any small buffs to its random nature. you could do the e8 e2 up to the m26. which i think can mount the a2. also try the t29 and if the t32 has it that as well.
anyway. nice thinking.

CanadianCracker #11 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:54

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sadly, there is no random generator for a computer, it is all math. the only way to achieve random is through overloading your processor intake of packets, but then again even that loops eventually. Take minecraft for example, in order to achieve a random generator, you have to burn out a red stone torch by overloading its inputs, but then again that loops at around 188 activation's. If anything, they have spent a long time having a team come up with a long list of numbers for each gun in the game that the gun mechanic chooses from in order and because it is server based, it would choose a number from that list in order for every person who fires that gun, but who knows how long the list is, it could be 200 numbers long or so. So it is random to us because we can not control who fires a certain gun and when, but it is not random to the game.

thundersaver #12 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 14:57

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View Postkanami314, on Aug 18 2012 - 14:51, said:

i love all this computer sci stuff. however your method of figuring it out is not complete. you need 2 diffrent tanks with the same gun perferibly same stats.
that would prove that after about 1000 round fired if there are any major deviations to the depressions.
my sugestions would be ether the kv3/is3 with the 122 d2-5t or d25t.
or the e8 and e2 with the m1a2. if you want to see if the same gun over tiers get any small buffs to its random nature. you could do the e8 e2 up to the m26. which i think can mount the a2. also try the t29 and if the t32 has it that as well.
anyway. nice thinking.

View PostCanadianCracker, on Aug 18 2012 - 14:54, said:

sadly, there is no random generator for a computer, it is all math. the only way to achieve random is through overloading your processor intake of packets, but then again even that loops eventually. Take minecraft for example, in order to achieve a random generator, you have to burn out a red stone torch by overloading its inputs, but then again that loops at around 188 activation's. If anything, they have spent a long time having a team come up with a long list of numbers for each gun in the game that the gun mechanic chooses from in order and because it is server based, it would choose a number from that list in order for every person who fires that gun, but who knows how long the list is, it could be 200 numbers long or so. So it is random to us because we can not control who fires a certain gun and when, but it is not random to the game.

Thank you for both your inputs.

@Kanami: I will try that next time if i can when i have the available tanks and in-game credits.

@CanadianCracker: so what your trying to say, is that this is a possible idea/theory to RNG?

zmaint #13 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 15:04

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View Postrhino1111, on Aug 18 2012 - 14:30, said:

Here's what RNG is using 1000 less words.

RNG = Random Number Generator

Every gun has a range for;
Penetration
Damage

Whenever a shell is fired, the RNG randomly selects a number from that range, for both penetration and damage.


All of the other stuff you wrote is nonsense to be honest, no offence.

We're only assuming it's entirely random, because they won't share with us how it actually works.   Who's to say every gun gets entirely the same "randomness".   It would not be beyond them to "tweak" the "randomness" (tighten, limit, increase, etc.. the number spread), for some tanks differently than others.   If it truly is a legitimate random number generator, and every tank has exactly the same parameters for randomness, then yes you are indeed correct.

We simply do not know for 100% certain.

thundersaver #14 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 15:11

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View Postzmaint, on Aug 18 2012 - 15:04, said:

We're only assuming it's entirely random, because they won't share with us how it actually works.   Who's to say every gun gets entirely the same "randomness".   It would not be beyond them to "tweak" the "randomness" (tighten, limit, increase, etc.. the number spread), for some tanks differently than others.   If it truly is a legitimate random number generator, and every tank has exactly the same parameters for randomness, then yes you are indeed correct.

We simply do not know for 100% certain.

thank you for pointing that out .


Aside from the main point
Thank you to whoever fixed the -1 :Smile_great:

Edited by thundersaver, Aug 18 2012 - 15:11.


CanadianCracker #15 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 15:13

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View Postthundersaver, on Aug 18 2012 - 14:57, said:

Thank you for both your inputs.

@CanadianCracker: so what your trying to say, is that this is a possible idea/theory to RNG?

it is random due to human input.

for example you shoot the 122 d2-5t from the IS, you are sending a request to the server for the next number in line containing damage, penetration...... , then the next person in another match shoots the122 d2-5t, they get the next number then someone else shoots and it becomes impossible to control who is using the 122 d2-5t at any given time on the server, so you could not track the actual list of numbers unless you some how gained access to it offline and did the tests. So technically its not random, we just cant control everyone on the server.

rhino1111 #16 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 15:14

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View Postzmaint, on Aug 18 2012 - 15:04, said:

We're only assuming it's entirely random, because they won't share with us how it actually works.   Who's to say every gun gets entirely the same "randomness".   It would not be beyond them to "tweak" the "randomness" (tighten, limit, increase, etc.. the number spread), for some tanks differently than others.   If it truly is a legitimate random number generator, and every tank has exactly the same parameters for randomness, then yes you are indeed correct.

We simply do not know for 100% certain.

this kinda falls under something like Conspiracy theories.

Who's to say some tanks dont have extra bounciness factors applied to their armor? And Certain tanks have access to telescopes in their cabin?
Anything can be assumed, but unless it can be proven it holds no merit at all. The only reliable source of information is from the dev's themselves. How do you know "They won't actually share with us how it works". What makes you think this? Does this statement have any merit behind it? Or is it just an opinion from an individual player, based upon his or her own assumptions?



As for the achieving randomness is impossible in computers, that is entirely false. I have a little bit of programming knowledge and have actually coded a simple game which uses a basic Random Number Generator.
There is a function called "Randomize" (or something similiar, built into VB.net programming language) where you can have it randomly pick a number through a range.

Coward_Of_The_County #17 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 15:25

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But computerized RNG aren't exactly that random. After a while a pattern emerges.

That's why the Canadian Lotto numbers are drawn by balls rather than computerized RNG's.

thundersaver #18 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 15:29

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View PostCoward_Of_The_County, on Aug 18 2012 - 15:25, said:

But computerized RNG aren't exactly that random. After a while a pattern emerges.

That's why the Canadian Lotto numbers are drawn by balls rather than computerized RNG's.

you have a point there :Smile_sceptic:

hoom #19 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 15:51

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Pseudo Random generators often have high & low streaks, so what feels like the game intentionally making your shots all bounce/miss while all the enemies shots hit & penetrate is actually just a bad sequence.
You should get the good sequences where you make all the borderline shots & marginal penetrations essentially just as often too.

In my experience the WoT RNG is indeed prone to high/low streaks but the chance of advantage/disadvantage seems well distributed.
I like to think of that as a representation of manufacturing quality variations: Sometimes you get the good tank with extra bouncy armor, sometimes the one with a particularly good accuracy gun, other times you get the one where everything only just barely fits together, a bad batch of armor steel & a gun that can't hit a barn at this dist...

Edited by hoom, Aug 18 2012 - 16:09.


SMScannonfodder #20 Posted Aug 18 2012 - 16:06

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View PostCoward_Of_The_County, on Aug 18 2012 - 15:25, said:

But computerized RNG aren't exactly that random. After a while a pattern emerges.

That's why the Canadian Lotto numbers are drawn by balls rather than computerized RNG's.
Exactly, I too have done plenty of programing and know that a computer can not do truely random numbers. To the OP, I see what you are driving at with your theory, but the only way to prove it would be with hugh numbers to see a pattern develop. One could also take your thought and instead of applying to the gun or tank firing it, to the tank receiving the shot. That a partcular tank, over a thousands shots, seems to have high or lower than average damage or penetartions or even bounces. But that would require way too much testing to confirm. Still and interesting theory.