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XVM, "Chance to Win" and Player Behavior.

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Abacab81 #1 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:22

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I use XVM, I started a couple of months ago, just to see what it does, and how it could help.  Well, it does help me in some small ways, but's its nice to be able to see what I am going up against.

Now, all the talk about "team stacking" aside (I have never seen MM do this on a consistent, continuous basis) I have found XVM to have one annoying factor.

"Chance to Win."

And, it's annoying, because of the reaction it gets from the players on the team(s).  I have been on both sides, where my team has been given an 18% chance to win, and where we have been given a 79% chance to win (Those are the lowest and highest chances I have personally witnessed)

If, and this just happened, I am on a team that has a high chance to win (60%+) I sometimes notice that players take that high percentage as a given, or a "guarantee" that they are going to win, regardless of how they play.  I have seen AFK's more than a few times in games like this.  I have seen player performance just fall through the floor on the part of some, because XVM "said" we were going to win .

On the other side of the coin, I have seen rage quits, and suicides on teams where the chance to win is below 40%.

The "chance to win" percentage given my XVM is meaningless, and I wish some players would realize that, and just play.  I have been on teams that have been given a 25% chance to win, and we wind up rolling the other team, simply because we decided we didn't want to lose.

This behavior is largely present among those with win rates below 47%.  I rarely see it among players above that level, and even rarer among players over 50%.  I think for many XVM has become a crutch, and they use it to determine how much effort they are going to put into a game.  I feel that quite a few sub 47% players are looking to be carried by those that play better,. When they are given poor odds, they give up,figuring there is no way they can win,  and when they are given good odds, they sit back figuring there is no way they can lose.  

The best games come when the "Chance to WIn" according to XVM is between 45% and 55%, then, the teams are more evenly matched, and most, if not all of the players in those games go out to fight, and the game becomes pretty close.

XVM is a useful tool, but the "Chance to Win" percentage is a guide, or a prediction.  It's not set in stone, not by any stretch of the imagination.

Off-topic posting.
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PTwr #2 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:23

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XVM whores are to stupid to notice that giving up on battle is what really brings down chance for victory. After all they are perfect stat padders and defeat is always fault of their team mates.

Pinko_Zinko #3 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:26

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If anyone mentions XVM in chat, especially the chance to win, I do my best to let them know I don't want them to hear it. I also don't want them telling anyone. It's best to not have your team over-confident or psyched out. I think it's best to keep it to yourself, or stay classy and just say something like "focus fire on X, they are really good."

If someone is using it to mock others with stats, then I try my best to troll them. I don't do well, but I think it's a good use of my time.

Pink_Panzer86 #4 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:27

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yeah i'll agree with OP & thats why i removed the winning percentage from my xvm

12048910 #5 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:27

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This is why I chose not to install the chance to win when I installed mm, I can still guess our chance to win looking at everyones w/r, but it's not as demoralizing/false hope as an actual chance to win

Erichkruger #6 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:27

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I removed the chance to win option on XVM months ago. It never had a positive effect mentally.  I keep XVM to look at relative reliability and who to watch out for on enemy team.

If you start of with a low percentage you begin demoralized, and if you had a high percentage and begin losing it is also is demoralizing

Brunswicker #7 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:28

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I installed XVM without the win calculator, so i get the benefit of knowing in advance if any stellar players are on a team without all the crap about calculating victory.

Mydragonsfly #8 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:28

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View PostPTwr, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:23, said:

XVM whores are to stupid to notice that giving up on battle is what really brings down chance for victory.

Why they have such a low chance of winning in the first place.

Just one of the many reasons I never liked xvm. :mellow:

urnotpaul #9 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:30

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i removed the winning percentages but it does get depressing of some of the numbers you see on your team.

wh1skybarrel #10 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:31

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Uninstalled XVM a couple of months ago.  Enjoy the game much more without it.

PTwr #11 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:33

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View PostMydragonsfly, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:28, said:

Why they have such a low chance of winning in the first place.

Just one of the many reasons I never liked xvm. :mellow:
Because they are in a platoon with two other XVM whores contributing to victory only by spamming cHEAT shells from their beloved stat padding Derpmans, and when three out of fifteen give up then defeat is rather more likely, which explains why for them XVM predictions are mostly true.

Nightspear #12 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:35

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if the xvm chance to win is less than 50%, it is time to quit that game.

Edited by Eeeek, Jun 13 2013 - 19:35.


vladvirus #13 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:36

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I stopped running it all together.
Its a psychological. Its either you give too much respect to an opponent that you wouldnt have otherwise. Or you think you're too awesome for the enemy team and take risks you otherwise wouldnt have. Yeah, many say - "oh it doesnt matter, i run it cause i want to know". It still does affect you regardless if you want to admit it.

drew13064 #14 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:37

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XVM is probably the main culprit for AFKs

String1701E #15 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:39

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I love the xvm extra stats in the player stats.I dont mind the win % at start so much because since i installed it I've had many games where it shows 40% or less and end up wiping their team hard.On the other hand I've had many where it shows 65% or better and ended up with a miserable loss.Just all depends on how well the team plays together.So yeah,what you see isnt always what you're gonna get.

to qoute Forrest Gump..."Life is like a box of chocolates,You never know what you're gonna get.".... :smile:

marafv #16 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:40

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Another issue with XVM is when it gives a fairly high win rate from one or two people on a team with good stats. I remember one match with about a 65% chance because of myself and a high green on a red team vs a complete red team. If the high rated players don't carry - bad luck, tank is poor choice to carry, bad play from high win chance- then you'll get a loss.

During one recent battle of reds and yellows vs greens and blues (with a 29% chance to win), I could tell I was not doing my best.- just demoralized before the battle started. I've stopped using full xvm for that reason.

Trailer_Tank_Boy #17 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:40

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View PostAbacab81, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:22, said:

I use XVM, I started a couple of months ago, just to see what it does, and how it could help.  Well, it does help me in some small ways, but's its nice to be able to see what I am going up against.

Now, all the talk about "team stacking" aside (I have never seen MM do this on a consistent, continuous basis) I have found XVM to have one annoying factor.

"Chance to Win."

And, it's annoying, because of the reaction it gets from the players on the team(s).  I have been on both sides, where my team has been given an 18% chance to win, and where we have been given a 79% chance to win (Those are the lowest and highest chances I have personally witnessed)

If, and this just happened, I am on a team that has a high chance to win (60%+) I sometimes notice that players take that high percentage as a given, or a "guarantee" that they are going to win, regardless of how they play.  I have seen AFK's more than a few times in games like this.  I have seen player performance just fall through the floor on the part of some, because XVM "said" we were going to win .

On the other side of the coin, I have seen rage quits, and suicides on teams where the chance to win is below 40%.

The "chance to win" percentage given my XVM is meaningless, and I wish some players would realize that, and just play.  I have been on teams that have been given a 25% chance to win, and we wind up rolling the other team, simply because we decided we didn't want to lose.

This behavior is largely present among those with win rates below 47%.  I rarely see it among players above that level, and even rarer among players over 50%.  I think for many XVM has become a crutch, and they use it to determine how much effort they are going to put into a game.  I feel that quite a few sub 47% players are looking to be carried by those that play better,. When they are given poor odds, they give up,figuring there is no way they can win,  and when they are given good odds, they sit back figuring there is no way they can lose.  

The best games come when the "Chance to WIn" according to XVM is between 45% and 55%, then, the teams are more evenly matched, and most, if not all of the players in those games go out to fight, and the game becomes pretty close.

XVM is a useful tool, but the "Chance to Win" percentage is a guide, or a prediction.  It's not set in stone, not by any stretch of the imagination.

I don't and have never used xvm, but it's my favorite mod to date!  I know a lot of the those who have Stat-hardons love it.  But they failed to realise what it actually is.  It's not a stat mod.. its a psycological warfare mod!  Any military commander in the world would LOVE going into battle against an enemy that's already convinced they're beaten.  It neatly sums up my contempt for stat-worshipers.  I love it!!

View PostPinko_Zinko, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:26, said:

If anyone mentions XVM in chat, especially the chance to win, I do my best to let them know I don't want them to hear it.

...

If someone is using it to mock others with stats, then I try my best to troll them. I don't do well, but I think it's a good use of my time.

Mocking the stat people is good wholesome fun the whole family can enjoy!

viglundr #18 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:41

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I leave it on and do look at it, if I see a low %chance for us I do seem to focus more and try to do the things that will make the difference in the match, it does feel good when it says you had a 35% chance to win and you win :)

Red_Ensign #19 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:42

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god I hate people who give up.

I go totally ape when the siren's going and some idiot says 'too late to go back' as he continues to drive the other way.  jesus, just f***ing TRY.

it's even more ridiculous when people bail at the start.

WetRock #20 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:47

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It is amusing that people will follow that number religiously even though it's basically made up out of thin air.  Until someone studies which metrics mean a lot and do some regression to find out if they can use them for prediction any of these things are worthless. But that's the state of math education these days.





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