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XVM, "Chance to Win" and Player Behavior.

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Tracker40 #21 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:49

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XVM I never installed it and never will. Every match I have respect for what the other team brings not knowing if they are good or not. Play every game as if your going up vs the pest players, Sometime you get owned other times you are the ones rolling over them,

What I hate more is the Lemmings that all go one way and leave you and one other tank to try to hold the weak side even when your saying and pinging the map for a few others to help on the weak side.

TheChumFamineOf59 #22 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:54

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View PostAbacab81, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:22, said:

I use XVM, I started a couple of months ago, just to see what it does, and how it could help.  Well, it does help me in some small ways, but's its nice to be able to see what I am going up against.

Now, all the talk about "team stacking" aside (I have never seen MM do this on a consistent, continuous basis) I have found XVM to have one annoying factor.

"Chance to Win."

And, it's annoying, because of the reaction it gets from the players on the team(s).  I have been on both sides, where my team has been given an 18% chance to win, and where we have been given a 79% chance to win (Those are the lowest and highest chances I have personally witnessed)

If, and this just happened, I am on a team that has a high chance to win (60%+) I sometimes notice that players take that high percentage as a given, or a "guarantee" that they are going to win, regardless of how they play.  I have seen AFK's more than a few times in games like this.  I have seen player performance just fall through the floor on the part of some, because XVM "said" we were going to win .

On the other side of the coin, I have seen rage quits, and suicides on teams where the chance to win is below 40%.

The "chance to win" percentage given my XVM is meaningless, and I wish some players would realize that, and just play.  I have been on teams that have been given a 25% chance to win, and we wind up rolling the other team, simply because we decided we didn't want to lose.

This behavior is largely present among those with win rates below 47%.  I rarely see it among players above that level, and even rarer among players over 50%.  I think for many XVM has become a crutch, and they use it to determine how much effort they are going to put into a game.  I feel that quite a few sub 47% players are looking to be carried by those that play better,. When they are given poor odds, they give up,figuring there is no way they can win,  and when they are given good odds, they sit back figuring there is no way they can lose.  

The best games come when the "Chance to WIn" according to XVM is between 45% and 55%, then, the teams are more evenly matched, and most, if not all of the players in those games go out to fight, and the game becomes pretty close.

XVM is a useful tool, but the "Chance to Win" percentage is a guide, or a prediction.  It's not set in stone, not by any stretch of the imagination.

Had a 65% chance to win just now; got slaughtered.  The other team was a bunch of reds and ours was greens and yellows...

bhawk1 #23 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 19:55

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I was in a match three days ago where XVM told me we had a 38% chance to win.

During the pre-battle timer, a teammate asked us if anyone had XVM installed, and if so, what was the %.  I immediately told him "58%, so as long as we all play our best, we've got this."

We rolled, winning 15-7.

The XVM win % is a rough estimate based on each player's average skill level.  It doesn't take into consideration a whole lot of other things - like if the player is running a stock tank, or a tank they're not familiar with, or if they're about to have a bad game.  In the case of the game I just mentioned, one of the reasons the enemy was favored to win was that they had a Comet who was a very good player.  Unfortunately for him, he had a bad game.  He got tracked in the open and focus fired quickly within the first two minutes, so his impact on the game wasn't what it could have been.

Chance To Win is just like any other gaming odds statistic.  It can give you some info about who's favored and who's not, but you still have to play the game.

Hurk #24 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:00

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View Postdrew13064, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:37, said:

XVM is probably the main culprit for AFKs
false.

QuicksilverJPR #25 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:01

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View PostPink_Panzer86, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:27, said:

yeah i'll agree with OP & thats why i removed the winning percentage from my xvm

Same.  I just let people know what tank(s)/person(s) to look out for, and that's it.

Ricox #26 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:02

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You can't change the intelligence level of those people by making this topic.

If they think that a chance to win is a guide that should be followed like some sort of a holy book or the law book - they lack one of the most important components in being contributive to the team - intelligence. You know people aren't bright when they fail to read the "chance" part in a 3 word sentence.

Hurk #27 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:03

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View Postcavman276, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:54, said:

Had a 65% chance to win just now; got slaughtered.  The other team was a bunch of reds and ours was greens and yellows...
and this is the failure. most people see colors and ignore the rest of the data.
a player that is purple is to be feared... until you notice he only has 100 battles played and is in a platoon with a ~55% player.
a red player is to be scorned, until you see that he has ~1k battles and is 60% win rate in the current tank.

also configure wn6 etc, so you can see actual player performance, not just a color. its very telling. there are a lot players who played badly for thousands of matches, but in certain tanks they are kick ass.

Redsand79 #28 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:06

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Chance to win is a BS stat but if someone wants to throw up that a 3 tank platoon of purples vs a 3 tank platoon of oranges doesn't matter, hasn't been paying attention, especially at the top of the tier at a battle.  The reason they have a high rating is because they consistantly perform.  Sure they are going to have games where they are one shot in the first minute but on average they play well.

I'm an average to better than average player (green).  I look forward to the challenges of going against teals and purples cause I usually learn something and it's good to keep their ego in check.  Make no mistake though that I have a hell of a time going one on one against a purple as opposed to red or orange that snap shots your turrett every shot.

So call em stat whores or whatever but XVM does indidcate on average a set of better performing players and 2 greens, 5 yellows and a bunch of orange and red going up against 5 teals, 4 greens and 6 yellows is one hell of a challenge and 9 out of 10 times a loss.

It would be great if MM could take this into consideration but I understand it is an independent tool.

So on your 17% chance to win, yeah even the sun shines on a dogs ass once in awhile but what it meant was that you guys took a unique strat, stuck together and caught the other team off guard.

String1701E #29 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:12

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View PostHurk, on Jun 13 2013 - 20:03, said:

and this is the failure. most people see colors and ignore the rest of the data.
a player that is purple is to be feared... until you notice he only has 100 battles played and is in a platoon with a ~55% player.
a red player is to be scorned, until you see that he has ~1k battles and is 60% win rate in the current tank.

also configure wn6 etc, so you can see actual player performance, not just a color. its very telling. there are a lot players who played badly for thousands of matches, but in certain tanks they are kick ass.

Personally I would like to know how to do this.I would rather know how they perform in the current tank rather than overall.I was qouted once as to my 46% w/r at the time,but my w/r in that particular tank was 56%, 6:1230 eff or something like that.I had to chuckle when he died soon after battle start,we won the match,and i had descent dmg and kills.So yeah,overall doesnt always tell the tale.

Guido1212 #30 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:14

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View Postviglundr, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:41, said:

I leave it on and do look at it, if I see a low %chance for us I do seem to focus more and try to do the things that will make the difference in the match, it does feel good when it says you had a 35% chance to win and you win :)

Yes, calculating a low chance to victory is a challenge if you are on the low team.

Anything from 40-60 is essentially a crap shoot.

Anything from 60-70 or 30-40 is a "likely"

Anything above or below those is a "Very Likely"

Of course there are exceptions to those rules, as there are in anything.  Single data points however do not disprove the rule.

_PoliticallyIncorrect #31 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:19

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If your in a 3 man platoon the chance to win is 100%, because if you do your job as a platoon and carry the team it's a win. The way i see it if a 3 man platoon loses it's their fought for not carrying the team.(Which is why i don't hang around people that be like "OMG OUR ENTIRE TEAM IS RED".) Like who cares, carry the team and lets win. If your solopubbing it's a bit different, but not much. Your still carrying.

The way i see it people who think they are good players, but complain when their entire team is red, or when the enemy team has a unicum platoon, they are not as good as they think they are. (Players who know they arent good i don't see why they run XVM in the first place, it just shows them they are the worse players on the team constantly.)  Just my 2 cents.

Dockmaster #32 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:20

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My favorite subject.

I think the OP gives too much credit to the general WoT population. I bet 90% of the players have either never heard about XVM or the mechanics of installing and configuring it is way above their computer skills.

I really don't care if someone uses XVM or not. My issue is when they use it to belittle other players or mention the projected win percentage.

If you use XVM please simply keep it to yourself as I don't want to hear it.

ClassAct #33 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:21

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XVM is a great tool a to better understand youself.  It does open up the ability to use the info in a derogatory manner, and is often abused.  I myself on occasion have pointed out someones stats in game, but only if they are raging and are poor.

In game "Chance to Win" is just distracting and I learned to shut it off quickly.  Gameplay should not change due to chances or the ability of your opponents.  That is true in all games and sports as it was recently proven by the Boston Bruins/Pittsburgh Penquins series.  Play your game always.

Edited by ClassAct, Jun 13 2013 - 20:22.


SumiXam #34 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:21

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Players still have the chance to win turned on? Hmm...I disabled that as soon as they made it possible to disable it. Of all the features of XVM, the outcome predictor is bottom of the list for usefulness.

matthewdelta #35 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:23

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I keep track of my stats, but I refuse to install XVM.  I have been in many games where some of my team mates pretty much just lied down to die because some magical stat-program told them we wouldn't win.  Stats are cool to help you improve your gameplay, but THEY AREN'T EVERYTHING! I hate it when people just give up like that, even if you think you're gonna lose at least try.

Husarski #36 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:24

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I love when two of our arty suicided in the first 30 seconds of the game because XVM told them less than 50% chance to win... we lost, but it was close (down to 2 tanks v 1 tank on our side) and with those arty players. we would have won.

XVM is useful for telling you what kind of team you have.. but for chance of win, not so much.

Kumacho #37 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:25

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If I see a low chance to win I concentrate harder on taking out the tanks that give the higher chance to win to the other team.  

XVM is a good tool.  But like any tool if it is used incorrectly it will cause more harm than good.

W4RM0NG3R #38 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:26

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I leave XVM for the Stat-Padders, Seal Clubbers and the Unicums and Wannabes. I don't need it to be able to tell when I possibly have a bad team. It's a gut feeling.

I never quit matches, even during the ones where within the first 3 minutes half my team gets rolled right over. I fight it out to the end, and win or lose; In the end it's just a game.

I personally believe that a true Pro doesn't count on some BS stat-caller that doesn't include all the necessary variables to even be remotely accurate in it's representation of what the exact chance percentage is at one team winning the match. And as many others have said; It's a psychological thing. It can demoralize just as easily as it can rally.

XVM is not required inorder to be a good, sensible player with plenty of tact. And that's just basic common sense.

Mirage01 #39 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:27

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It's great, it's a faceless statistical overlay tool - the human response is amazing.

What really needs to happen is to have MM incorporate those statistics, and try to have games arrive nearer to the 50% OVERALL chance to win, so people stop jumping to conclusions during the countdown.

Windows_Are_Tasty #40 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:32

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i use that win chance to know what to expect, but i try to play the same either way





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