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XVM, "Chance to Win" and Player Behavior.

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gremlin181 #41 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:33

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XVM even without stats can be depressing you look at the two teams and wonder why they have 4 players 52+ and we have no one in the green at all.

kapsiolaaaa #42 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:36

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A question to OP: in a open map, high tier 5 arty game - your team has only one med - a patton who is lets say yellow.

Enemy has 2 good blue lights. XVM says your w/r is 60 up due to good arties or heavies.

That is bs. Ain't it. You know lights will run the show and once patton is dead will be able to assist arty in owning you ...

Abacab81 #43 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:40

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I don't go by the "Chance to Win".  I know it's an arbitrary number that XVM pretty much pulls out of thin air.  When I see win rates, I also look at the number of games played as well.  I just want to know who the top players are on the other team, and what they are driving. That tells me who to target, and  who to look out for.  Same goes for my teammates. I want to know who to look out for.

SMScannonfodder #44 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:42

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I just say "Never tell me the odds"

Dockmaster #45 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:47

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I'd like to add another sentiment about XVM.

Ignorance is bliss. I just assume EVERYONE is better then me. In my ignorance I'm just as thrilled in killing a baddie as I am in killing a unicum.

MerryPrankster #46 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:49

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My sig says it all...

Tricericon #47 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:53

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View PostAbacab81, on Jun 13 2013 - 20:40, said:

I don't go by the "Chance to Win".  I know it's an arbitrary number that XVM pretty much pulls out of thin air.  When I see win rates, I also look at the number of games played as well.  I just want to know who the top players are on the other team, and what they are driving. That tells me who to target, and  who to look out for.  Same goes for my teammates. I want to know who to look out for.

It certainly never struck me as statistically rigorous, that's for sure.

+1 for av

Hurk #48 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:53

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to configure XVM:
http://www.koreanran...гов-xvm-editor/

its a webapp, so its not a picture, load your current XVMconf file and edit it or create a new one from scratch.

the extra setting that i add is to the scoreboard load screen and extended tanks view is TDV (average damage efficiency for the current tank) and TEFF (current tank efficiency)

Sylvado #49 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:53

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View PostSMScannonfodder, on Jun 13 2013 - 20:42, said:

I just say "Never tell me the odds"

I used that line in a battle the other night. I have xvm but chance is not configured.

stumpjumper8 #50 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:57

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Someone with 55+% WR will skew the chance to win prediction in most matches due to the sea of reds.  I have gotten to the point where I tell myself (and platoon mates if I'm platooning) that every battle, I can only count on myself and if I do well, I've got a good chance to win.

PwntUpRage #51 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:58

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From using it for several hundred games now:

35-59%= pretty much anything can happen.

60-68%= assured horrific one sided loss for our team....it makes no sense, but it seems to be what I get with those numbers.

69% and up= win.

I have won probably more 35% range predictions than I have lost.  I have lost almost all of the 60-68% predictions.

Harxen #52 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 20:59

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This is why my XVM does not tell me chance to win. It's never over till the last tank explodes.

SMScannonfodder #53 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 21:02

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View PostSylvado, on Jun 13 2013 - 20:53, said:

I used that line in a battle the other night. I have xvm but chance is not configured.
I had XVM working, but it stopped working for me in the 8.5 patch, just the parts that show WR and EFF, it still shows the odss but it is based only on the tanks for each side so up to +/- 3%. I really don't miss it much, I know the big clans so I can guess how they are going to do and I really don't trust anyone else on my team, so it's all good.

Darklink69 #54 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 21:06

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I feel pretty much the same thing as the OP yesterday i had a game with a 79% win in Himmeldorf(spelling?) encounter and with many high W/R on my side and they ALL rush the hill exept me(T-43) a T-32-2 and a T71 we endup infront of 5 ennemies on the tracks: 2 T8 heavies, 2 T8 med, 1 light and 1 arty we got killed quite fast when they realise wew were alone and cap. Our team cleared the hill but 15 sec left on timer when they did so we lost like noobs. I know some ppl on our side had great rating but it seem they were so sure to win that they forgot how help or event check the mini map and chat.

Mirage01 #55 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 21:08

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View PostAbacab81, on Jun 13 2013 - 20:40, said:

I don't go by the "Chance to Win".  I know it's an arbitrary number that XVM pretty much pulls out of thin air. .

Didn't XVM start using WN7 calculations to pull through the proxy? I don't think it's truly thin air, it's a reasonable aggregation of stats that produces a chance to win. There are a lot of really terrible players and bots, and there are a lot of really amazing expert players. WN7 is a reasonable assessment of players' output on the factors of the game. (well, without any love to potential damage received on my Maus...  :sad: )

Now, the main issue is having MM aware of that, and during the 30 second countdown... MM can SHUFFLE THE TEAMS AROUND to try and arrive at a 50% overall chance.

XVM in and of itself is fine, it's the interpretation behind the keyboard that is troubling - and MORE troubling is the fact that MM is not aware of it.

cupAsoup #56 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 21:08

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The XVM chance to win is pretty dumb, and I can only imagine the most garbage of players giving up because of what xvm says. Good players will take matters into their own hands and dictate the pace and flow of battle.

That being said, if someone blurbs out a chance to win and it affects the "psyche" of the team, then you need your diaper changed and a nap.

T_om #57 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 21:08

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View PostAbacab81, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:22, said:

I have found XVM to have one annoying factor.

"Chance to Win."

Sigh.  Another XVM whine by someone that does not even know enough to know you can turn that off.

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  I have seen player performance just fall through the floor on the part of some, because XVM "said" we were going to win .

Baloney.  Zero credibility here.  You are a 48% player not qualified to comment on other players performance "falling off".

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On the other side of the coin, I have seen rage quits, and suicides on teams where the chance to win is below 40%..

In many thousands of battles more than you I have seen this only a handful of times.  And I can't even remember the last time I saw it.  The last suicide I saw was actually from a very good player that had been called away to do a Clan Wars battle on the spur of the moment... and he told us what happened and apologized when he did it.

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The "chance to win" percentage given my XVM is meaningless, and I wish some players would realize that, and just play.  I have been on teams that have been given a 25% chance to win, and we wind up rolling the other team, simply because we decided we didn't want to lose.

And this nails the lid on the coffin of your ignorance of what XVM statistics mean.  Your team did not "simply decide" they wanted to win.  Statistically they would win 2.5 games out of every 10, no matter WHAT they "decided".  Welcome to numbers.  Having a poor chance doesn't mean NO chance.  See the difference?

Tom

TheOctagon #58 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 21:09

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My feeling has always been that stats are made to be broken..:)

Never_Lucky #59 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 21:11

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It's funny how your chance to win is significantly higher when you are a great player.

Telepath #60 Posted Jun 13 2013 - 21:15

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I installed XVM becasue the map mods which insert tank types next to the symbols, and dots for "last known locations" are amazing informationaly useful tools. I specifically excluded all that stats BS for the very reason the OP listed.I do love when people boohoo before the match even starts and we win anyway though ^_^





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