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XVM, "Chance to Win" and Player Behavior.

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Sudden_Impacts #81 Posted Jun 18 2013 - 05:00


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Don't use it.  It is a stupid mod

Triple_Sixes #82 Posted Jun 23 2013 - 17:31


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View PostZhao_Zilong, on Jun 14 2013 - 00:37, said:

No it's not meaningless for certain ranges of XVM predicted victory. If it's less than 40%, I basically know it's going to be a write-off. Note that I am a 63% win player. So if my presence in my team is not enough to bring my team's predicted win chance to at least 45%, then my teammates by definition is a fail team anyway. And what I see them do in-game basically backs up that prediction.

You can also see that the 40-49% decile prediction is very accurate: My actual wins in that bracket matches predicted wins.
If XVM says 60%+, I smile, because I actually win those 60+% predicted matches 80% of the time.

See my own 1K games with XVM experiment spreadsheet:


I do not come here often, mostly just to read... and by the way, this forums search engine SUCKS DICKS.

But I have been searching the forums all day to see if I could validate what I am seeing.  

Up until the last two days I had about a 60% + win rate. All pubs, no platooning, no clan help.  The HUGE number of just idiotic players in this game the last two days have dropped me about one percentage point though.

But one constant and consistent observation has made me decide the following:

If XVM tells me we have less than a 35% chance to win and I am the only purple/blue player in a sea of bleeding red PubShit, then it is WAY more efficient for me to just suicide immediately and move to another tank and game than stay and waste time on that pile of Pubshit players.  Especially as I do not run a premium account.  Some maps are prime examples of time sinks anyway... El Haluf, Redshire, the REAL POS Pearl River... any map where PubShits can cost you more time than it takes to play two games elsewhere.

So guys, neg rep away, but I am gone when it is a waste of my time to stay.


Zickefoose #83 Posted Jun 23 2013 - 19:08


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Mostly, if I see a bad win chance it really depends how I handle the battle. and it WILL change how I play. If there is a unicum platoon on the enemy team, it is very clear who needs to die and VERY early in the game. If that fails, the match is failed. Or when you have a bunch of 0k 30% winrates on your team. YOU KNOW they will be stupid... BUT, they will be stupid to the point that they SHOULD light someone up. Take advantage of it. People that take advantage of XVM get wins, the same way that people that understand the games mechanics will exploit them into there favor. Very FEW times will you see a team win that has a sub 30% win chance... VERY RARELY. It's for good reason.

Rojo_Jebaited #84 Posted Jun 24 2013 - 01:10

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Very nice post, I would like to say this and it's that war is unpredictable, and stats can not predicate things like the randomness of an ammo rack explosion to a tank, or a devastating fire to a high tier heavy tank.

AurenNorizawa #85 Posted Jun 24 2013 - 01:22

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In all honesty I felt I played more cautious, maybe somewhat better, when xvm wasn't in use(test server)

I do use xvm on live, but my recent experiences without it may make me drop it

Greenfish486 #86 Posted Jun 24 2013 - 10:29


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View PostRed_Ensign, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:42, said:

god I hate people who give up.

I go totally ape when the siren's going and some idiot says 'too late to go back' as he continues to drive the other way.  jesus, just f***ing TRY.

it's even more ridiculous when people bail at the start.

When your in a slow tank and almost across the map by the time you turn around and get there it will hit 100% best bet is to continue pushing forward and try and take out the other team or hope you have a lot of people near the capture point.

trackfolife #87 Posted Jul 27 2013 - 06:03


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I don't like the "Chance to Win" feature, with that said, when I installed XVM the Chance to Win feature did not appear by default?!? Did I install XVM incorrectly?

_Smoken_ #88 Posted Jul 27 2013 - 15:29

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View PostPTwr, on Jun 13 2013 - 19:23, said:

XVM whores are to stupid to notice that giving up on battle is what really brings down chance for victory. After all they are perfect stat padders and defeat is always fault of their team mates.
lol for the most part ya

Lower tier matches 1-6 , if your as good as your stats say then you mite have to work for it but you can be the game changer most of the time.

_MATTY_ #89 Posted Jul 29 2013 - 01:21


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I initially configured my XVM to not show the win chances at all for the exact reason in the OP, although now I have it setup to show it in the battle results only. Mostly for my own curiosity.

Hittman6 #90 Posted Jul 29 2013 - 01:45

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Some of those suicide runs aren't suicide runs. If I can see that there is no way my team is going to win if we play in typical pub fashion, I'll either take a lot of risks to try to take out the top players on the other team, or try to get my team to form some sort of swarm/caprush/camp strategy depending on the map.

40-95% - I don't change my game at all.

20-40% - I'm more cautious, pay even more attention to situational awareness, and, depending on the tank I'm in, may stay close enough to get back to base for a reset.

Below 20% - that's the time to get whacky, to try something goofy you've been thinking about trying, to take dumb risks on the off chance it might work.


If XVM tells me we have less than a 35% chance to win and I am the only purple/blue player in a sea of bleeding red PubShit, then it is WAY more efficient for me to just suicide immediately and move to another tank and game than stay and waste time on that pile of Pubshit players.

AFKholes like you should be severely penalized for leaving games, with high and ever escalating repair costs. WoT needs to make it impossible to start a new game when an AFKhole has a live tank in a current battle.

Sometimes you get good teams. Sometimes you get crap. When you exit a crap team, you just screwed over 14 other players because you're too dammed important to spend your time with those peons. Well la-de-effin da, we're all so impressed. You and people like you make the game suck.


YOU KNOW they will be stupid... BUT, they will be stupid to the point that they SHOULD light someone up.

I've been in some battles where the better players held back a bit, all the red players rushed out and got killed (maybe doing a bit of damage in the process) and we've gone on to win, because the meatshields, having served their purpose, were no longer around to get in the way.

funhuji #91 Posted Jul 29 2013 - 11:18


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The XVM winchance is just that: chance.
Having said that, below tier 6 winchance is just a funny number, when each team has 10 guys with 2k games or less there is just too much randomness. In the higher tiers the prediction seems valid to me.
Player behaviour varies. There are special tankers that just quit when the chance is low, but they are less common than afklers and bots I think. I don't feel it hurts the game and I use that prediction to fit my playstyle.
Afaik the prediction is based on the efficiency values. I calculate chances by different values and I think my predictions beat xvm's more often than not.

Edited by funhuji, Jul 29 2013 - 11:24.

Torlek #92 Posted Aug 16 2013 - 06:46


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Does this mod take into account the fact that you've raised your win% with a certain tank by 10%? I have much improved with my tiger since I started sniping/ supporting with it. The low rate of fire and low alpha don't save me when the rest of my team dies like a bunch of lemmings and I get bum rushed by 6 tanks. Getting overrun sucks, no matter how good you think you are. But AFKHoles need to be banned when they get complained about. I've had a few wins where our top tier tank quit on us. I've also deliberately led an enemy right into an AFKHole  to guarantee his repair bill, nice guy that I am. This tactic works best when I'm driving my luchs of course... and my luchs has a 64% win ratio on it.

Edited by Torlek, Aug 16 2013 - 06:47.

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