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Alternate History Scenario with a Side of Tanks


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Daigensui #1 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 17:35

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I've started considering what kind of tanks would be developed in a long term alternate history project I'm working on. Premise is this:

 

View PostDaigensui, on Jul 12 2013 - 17:16, said:

It starts from here.


Posted Image

A proposed state by some crackpot Japanese ultranationalists. Name will be "Daikoraikoku" (Great Koryo State), and will be the bulwark against Russia. Also, this will be a Korean-centric state with its capital at Yongcheon.

It's a Japanese puppet state. The map was made sometime around 1908, when the population of Manchuria and Korea were someone similar (15,834,000 to 12,960,0000). Assimilation plans were made to have the Manchu and Mongols recognize themselves as cousins of the Koreans while also stopping Chinese immigration, leading to a Korean-dominated country that would be in an "alliance" with Japan against the Russians.

What's strange about this plan was that Sun Yat-sen's Tongmenghui agreed to it, saying that to them Manchuria and Mongolia didn't mean much to them as long as the "Tatar barbarians" are expelled of China Proper and the Russians are stopped. Since the Tongmenghui was funded by Kokuryukai (who were the ones pushing for this resurrection of Koryo), it did make in a Machiavellian way.

After the annexation of Korea, the plan was sunk until 1921 when an even more serious crackpot plan was came up to continue the original legacy. Here's the map from a news article on April 1st, 1921 (no, it wasn't an April Fool's Joke) in the Taisho Daily News, as part of a series that started in March:

Posted Image

So, the basic idea is that we have a dynastic link between Japan and Korea, and this Korea is basically the Germany of East Asia based on the large mineral reserves and labor it has.




Basic Outline

1. An assassination attempt in 1909 does not succeed.
2. Korea is not annexed in 1910, but still remains a de facto colony of Japan as a protectorate.
3. Xinhai Revolution occurs, with Manchuria/Mongolia becoming a Japanese/Korean joint protectorate.
4. Siberian Intervention of 1918 ends with the establishment of a Far Eastern Republic under Kolchak, with Transamur coming under Japanese/Korean joint protectorate.
5. The Great War is done similarly to OTL, with the exception of Korean royal observers being able to see what kind of military reforms are needed.
6. Industrialization programs with much German input changes Korea into a major industrial country of East Asia, second only to Japan with a focus on heavy industry and agriculture. Chemical industry effectively reaches German levels on a per capita basis. Basically, Korea takes the place of China in a German-Korean cooperation.
7. Large numbers of Koreans move to Manchuria, effectively turning the southern part into a Korean majority area.
8. In late 1920's Transamur/Manchuria/Korea are unified into a single empire of Daikoraikoku under Prince Chichibu.
9. Europe until 1939 is similar to OTL. Reinhard Heydrich manages to be in de facto control of Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia from the start as opposed to 1941, thus accelerating various things in the Protectorate.
10. WW2 occurs on schedule, and is similar until 1942. Starting from there, Hitler is influenced by a certain semi-official "adviser" (more like annoyance) who manages to get the Führer to face reality, much to the anger of the Nazi Old Guard. This leads to Hitler making some sensible moves. Among other things, this timeline's equivalent of the Battle of Kursk (undecided whether it is forehand or backhand operation) succeeds in forcing an already exhausted Red Army (limited Lend Lease due to no Pacific Route strains logistics) to delay various operations. This and other previous changes extends the war into 1946.
11. Asia/Pacific is similar to OTL, although Japan makes greater inroads into China due to the support of Daikoraikoku. Things change in 1944 when Japan and Daikoraikoku clash, leading to the "War of the Brothers" and eventual regime change in Japan. USSR takes advantage of this to invade and annex the Far Eastern Republic.
12. Mark Oliphant of the MAUD committee in 1941 dies in a plane accident, thus not getting the US all worked up about nuclear weapons. This delays the development of Western Allies' nuclear weapons.
13. With the defeat of Germany, the final campaign starts against Daikoraikoku/Japan by the Allies in August 1946, eventually ending in the start of the nuclear era.


Side Stories

- Ferdinand Porsche goes to Daikoraikoku for an year between 1929 and 1930 after meeting with a member of the Imperial Family. This will have future influences on tank designs.




The above is what I have in mind so far. I'm open to suggestions to make this a more fleshed out scenario.

 

 

Link to Cheonho



Life_In_Black #2 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 17:40

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One suggestion. Instead of a mystery adviser causing Hitler to make some sane decisions, why not have Hitler have a stroke (thus putting him in a coma) when he finds out about Paulus' surrender to the Soviets? Alternately, you could have Paulus' surrender cause him to actually take notice that his empire is crumbling, and have him make better choices to try and save it.

Daigensui #3 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 17:46

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It's not really a mystery adviser, but more of someone who is high enough to be immune and blunt enough to call Hitler out on a few things.

cupAsoup #4 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 17:47

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The best alternate history follows close to actual history with PLAUSIBLE differences making large impacts or forcing significant tangents. You take a large number of highly improbably leaps that are just not simply believable given the bias, cultures, access to resources, and governing ability of the time.

Daigensui #5 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 17:48

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View PostcupAsoup, on Jul 13 2013 - 17:47, said:

The best alternate history follows close to actual history with PLAUSIBLE differences making large impacts or forcing significant tangents. You take a large number of highly improbably leaps that are just not simply believable given the bias, cultures, access to resources, and governing ability of the time.

Examples?

sharlin648 #6 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 17:55

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View PostDaigensui, on Jul 13 2013 - 17:46, said:

It's not really a mystery adviser, but more of someone who is high enough to be immune and blunt enough to call Hitler out on a few things.

No such person existed in the OTL.  I think the only person to stand up to one of Adolf's screaming 'briefings' was Guderian and after that he needed to go and lie down as he felt ill.  What Guderian did was basically state the same thing again and again whilst Hitler got more and more worked up. This was during the build up to the battle of Berlin, Hitler had put Himmler in charge of an attack or counter offensive but the scumbag had no military training and didn't know how to command military forces in the field. Guderian wanted some experienced staff appointed to Himmler's entorage to 'advise' (in reality run the battle for him), Hitler would not permit Guderian to say the National Leader was not up to the job and when Guderian repeated his request Hitler went ape and screamed at him for about a hour before finally agreeing and buggering off as if nothing had happened.

Oh then Kitel and other cronies came along and had a go at Guderian who had his head buried in his hands and was 'shaking with shock' because he was contradicting the Fuhrer.

You did not disagree with Hitler or be blunt with him. If you did you was retired from your post, if you pushed it you would probably end out as a guest of the Gestapo, tortured and then shot.

Edited by sharlin648, Jul 13 2013 - 18:07.


Life_In_Black #7 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 17:55

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View PostDaigensui, on Jul 13 2013 - 17:46, said:

It's not really a mystery adviser, but more of someone who is high enough to be immune and blunt enough to call Hitler out on a few things.

In late '42 to early '43, I don't think there was anybody like that who could call him out and actually influence him. Late war, he tended to trust Martin Bormann and Skorzeny, but Bormann only gained favor as Himmler fell out of favor, and Skorzeny didn't earn that place until after rescuing Mussolini.

Daigensui #8 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 17:58

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View Postsharlin648, on Jul 13 2013 - 17:55, said:

No such person existed in the OTL.  I think the only person to stand up to one of Adolf's screaming 'briefings' was Guderian and after that he needed to go and lie down as he felt ill.

View PostLife_In_Black, on Jul 13 2013 - 17:55, said:

In late '42 to early '43, I don't think there was anybody like that who could call him out and actually influence him. Late war, he tended to trust Martin Bormann and Skorzeny, but Bormann only gained favor as Himmler fell out of favor, and Skorzeny didn't earn that place until after rescuing Mussolini.

We'll see how it goes. I do say I'm inclined towards your suggestion, though.

sharlin648 #9 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 18:02

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View PostDaigensui, on Jul 13 2013 - 17:48, said:

Examples?

The Japanese had a rather nasty habit of treating the Koreans as barely human, there's still a lot of dislike for the Japanese because of their actions in 1920s - 1945  in Korea to this very day.  Suddenly having the Koreans go "I for one welcome our Japanese overlords!" ignores decades of mistrust and dislike and then the IJA letting its men do little things..you know things they deny happening.  Rape of Nanking etc, they treated the Koreans just as badly.

sharlin648 #10 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 18:03

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View PostLife_In_Black, on Jul 13 2013 - 17:55, said:

In late '42 to early '43, I don't think there was anybody like that who could call him out and actually influence him. Late war, he tended to trust Martin Bormann and Skorzeny, but Bormann only gained favor as Himmler fell out of favor, and Skorzeny didn't earn that place until after rescuing Mussolini.

Bormann was in it for his own good though, he'd view you as a rival for Hitlers power and 'affection' and that could end with you getting a 9mm in the brain pan.  Maybe Speer could do it but he was no military leader, he was an industrialist.

Edited by sharlin648, Jul 13 2013 - 18:03.


Life_In_Black #11 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 18:08

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View Postsharlin648, on Jul 13 2013 - 18:03, said:

Bormann was in it for his own good though, he'd view you as a rival for Hitlers power and 'affection' and that could end with you getting a 9mm in the brain pan.  Maybe Speer could do it but he was no military leader, he was an industrialist.

Like I said, Bormann gained favor as Himmler lost it. Bormann became late war, the voice whispering in the Führer's ear. But he didn't have that influence in late '42 or early '43. In '43, Himmler was still very much the golden boy in '43, as he pushed Hitler (and succeeded) in getting all foreign volunteers under control of the SS. As for Speer, like you say he's an industrialist. And even then I don't believe he was in charge of putting German industry on a war footing until sometime in '43.

Daigensui #12 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 18:09

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View Postsharlin648, on Jul 13 2013 - 18:02, said:

The Japanese had a rather nasty habit of treating the Koreans as barely human, there's still a lot of dislike for the Japanese because of their actions in 1920s - 1945 in Korea to this very day. Suddenly having the Koreans go "I for one welcome our Japanese overlords!" ignores decades of mistrust and dislike and then the IJA letting its men do little things..you know things they deny happening. Rape of Nanking etc, they treated the Koreans just as badly.

You seem to have missed the point of the PoD: Due to Ito managing to survive assassination and Terauchi Masatake not becoming Resident-General of Korea, Korea does not face the humiliation of becoming an official colony by annexation, with the Korean Imperial Family still being nominal rulers. This itself causes enough butterflies to change things.

sharlin648 #13 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 18:09

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Aye it was in 43 when he got put in charge, can't remember the date when he became the production minister.

BlackSunRising #14 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 18:21

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bormann was terrible. Skorneny was cool but what did he know about anything that could help the Wehrmacht as a whole.  I have no idea why hitler ever thought his organizationally enchanted desk jockey the reichsfuhrer could lead troops in battle... its almost as if  he was setting himmler up to look like an idiot. its too bad he did that cuz it  would just make the waffen SS loose trust in their leader.

Edited by BlackSunRising, Jul 13 2013 - 18:21.


Life_In_Black #15 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 18:30

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View PostBlackSunRising, on Jul 13 2013 - 18:21, said:

bormann was terrible. Skorneny was cool but what did he know about anything that could help the Wehrmacht as a whole.  I have no idea why hitler ever thought his organizationally enchanted desk jockey the reichsfuhrer could lead troops in battle... its almost as if  he was setting himmler up to look like an idiot. its too bad he did that cuz it  would just make the waffen SS loose trust in their leader.

Himmler wasn't supposed to lead troops in battle, as he was for all intents and purposes, a politician. When Himmler did try his hand at commanding troops, he was dismal at it, with all the nasty details that entails.

Skorzeny actually seemed to have a grasp of things at both the operational and the strategic levels, but like I said, he didn't become truly known until after the success of Unternehmen Eiche.

BlackSunRising #16 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 19:27

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everything i read bout skorzeny is more like and adventure in a ww2 bakground.  He took part in so many random missions and tasks. like being a civil engineer who ends up  on the eastern front who ends up on a spy mission in the Mediterranean traveling from island to island following leads on Mussolinis whereabouts.  Then he puts together and trains a team of mixed unit guys for a daring mountain rescue ( like right out of a 70'ww2 action movie)  then he hanges out with hanna reitsch testing rocket planes and all sorts. then he leads a secret behinde enemy lines task force in enemy uniforms. Then helps hide documents. then he gets captured tried and escapes by the possible help of an american  because they like him. then for his greatest accomplishment he sets up ODESSA to save his kommeraden from death and imprisonment. Then he runs a succesful engineering company and dies a happy man

Edited by BlackSunRising, Jul 13 2013 - 19:28.


Daigensui #17 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 19:37

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I think the discussion is going slightly off-track.

Life_In_Black #18 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 19:43

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View PostBlackSunRising, on Jul 13 2013 - 19:27, said:

everything i read bout skorzeny is more like and adventure in a ww2 bakground.  He took part in so many random missions and tasks. like being a civil engineer who ends up  on the eastern front who ends up on a spy mission in the Mediterranean traveling from island to island following leads on Mussolinis whereabouts.  Then he puts together and trains a team of mixed unit guys for a daring mountain rescue ( like right out of a 70'ww2 action movie)  then he hanges out with hanna reitsch testing rocket planes and all sorts. then he leads a secret behinde enemy lines task force in enemy uniforms. Then helps hide documents. then he gets captured tried and escapes by the possible help of an american  because they like him. then for his greatest accomplishment he sets up ODESSA to save his kommeraden from death and imprisonment. Then he runs a succesful engineering company and dies a happy man

Eh, most of that is embellishment. He took most of the credit for Unternehmen Eiche, even though it was a primarily Luftwaffe operation. He was tried at Nuremberg for his role in Unternehmen Greif, and he was acquitted after a British commando spoke in his defense that British operatives working behind enemy lines often wore German uniforms. After Unternehmen Eiche, he became a golden boy of Hitler's, and was involved in quite a few different operations and events. But he did seem to have a grasp of both the strategic and operational levels. The reason I brought him up, is because he's one of the few people Hitler would have listened too, had Skorzeny offered his opinion. But that wasn't until late '43 to early '44, which is too late for Daigensui's premise.

Other Skorzeny facts of note:
  • Operation Panzerfaust
  • Spending 36hrs in charge of the Wehrmacht's command center in Berlin in order to maintain control and put down the attempted rebellion following the July 20th bomb attack
  • Despite only being a Lieutenant Colonel in the Waffen-SS, Skorzeny spent January and February 1945 commanding regular troops in the defence of the German provinces of East Prussia and Pomerania as an acting major general.


Life_In_Black #19 Posted Jul 13 2013 - 19:44

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View PostDaigensui, on Jul 13 2013 - 19:37, said:

I think the discussion is going slightly off-track.

Agreed. As I said, I only mentioned him because he's one of the few people Hitler would listen too, but that happened too late to be of any good for your scenario.

Zinegata #20 Posted Jul 14 2013 - 16:04

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View PostDaigensui, on Jul 13 2013 - 17:35, said:

Side Stories

- Ferdinand Porsche goes to Daikoraikoku for an year between 1929 and 1930 after meeting with a member of the Imperial Family. This will have future influences on tank designs.

Offhand, the biggest problem that the IJA will encounter is not a lack of tanks, but the general lack of motorized transport, artillery, and anti-tank capability of any sort.

A much stronger option would be to have Ford or one of the major US automobile companies setup or buy one of the Japanese car makers as a major subsidiary. This results in a considerably stronger Japanese automative industry. An analogue would be how General Motors actually owned and modernized Opel (getting majority stakeholder status by 1929, and becoming the sole owner by 1931), which was Germany's leading wartime truck manufacturer.

The truck factories can then subequently end up building tanks (but most likely armored cars and self-propelled assault guns) as needed.




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