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Higher Skilled Players Like Artillery Less - Confirmed, But Why?

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_Intrepid #1 Posted May 03 2014 - 21:57

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A note to moderation: Again, I see nothing wrong with this post. I'm not calling out any individual (the chart shows ambiguous data points). I'm not jumping to hyperbole, nor attempting to incite unrest. I would like to, since they took the time to participate in the poll, discuss with the community what they think the results mean. Who knows, it may be instructive for Wargaming as well given I'm unaware of any such study being done previously. I'd love it if the time and work put into this were kept in mind and moderation were kept to removing those posts that attempt to derail or repurpose the discussion onto unproductive subjects. I also hope those replying self-moderate and realize this is not an artillery whine and worthy of more than the usual pithy replies.

 

Process

 

I ran a poll on the official forums asking players to give their opinions on artillery (found here). The poll votes were made public, allowing me to have record of each person's individual vote. I then went to WoTLabs and gathered:

 

  • Recent WN8
  • Recent Winrate
  • Overall WN8
  • Overall Winrate
  • Number of Battles Fought
  • Average Tier

 

For each player that voted. Because the vote options were in English, I created a numeric scale that corresponds to each vote. This scale was made public in the opening post for the poll. It's as follows:

 

10 = I strongly dislike artillery. Remove them or the puppy gets it.

9 = Remove artillery

8 = Overhaul, but remove artillery if that's not enough

6 = Overhaul, but keep artillery

3 = Modify artillery, but no overhaul needed

2 = Artillery is fine

1 = I love artillery

 

The middle option, overhaul but keep, was given a value of 6 instead of 5 as any overhaul would leave the class of vehicles unrecognizable to their current form. This did not feel like it was appropriately represented by a perfectly middle numeric value. Otherwise, the options are perfectly balanced against one another. 3 options for satisfaction with artillery in varying degrees, two of which require no changes. 3 options for disatisfaction with artillery, two of which believe removal should happen. 

 

With these two sets of data, I choose to run a simple bivariate regression analysis. This is a test against data sets, one for each of two related variables, that provides a mathematical confirmation of a correlation between the two related values. In short, it looks at these two sets of data and determines whether or not one influences or predicts the outcome of the other. If you believe my personal artillery opinions make me an unreliable source for this summary, you can head over to wikipedia and get started looking into the process by clicking here.

 

I have two data sets to work with, from (other than small word differences that account for the audience/moderation staff at each location) this location and another popular English speaking WoT forum known as a haven of players of high skill. However, I ran the results separately for this poll to avoid any accusation of influence as well as one with the two combined. Because the official result was so clear, I've decided not to post the combined results (despite it showing even more correlation and a much higher % calling for the removal of artillery). For this first post, I choose to use Recent WN8 as the skill representation per player.

 

WN8 is a numerical rating that uses per tank values as a basis for determining a mean from which it can compare each player and determine their skill in that tank. Perfect? No, but it's the best numeric rating we have at hand currently. Most of its issues are also exclusive to the very extreme ratings, greater than 3000. It's very reliable in the 0-3000 range. If you have questions about WN8, you can view in depth details by clicking here.

 

As for data cleanliness, I opted to only ignore votes from players with less than 100 battles. If they lacked a recent rating, I used their overall rating. Otherwise, everyone's vote counted.

 

Update: You can find the data in this open office file.

 

http://www.speedyshare.com/JRKjC/OfficialForumDataSet.ods

 

Results

 

At the time of recording for the official forum poll, there were 193 votes. The breakdown by percentage was as follows: 

 

I strongly dislike artillery. Remove them or the puppy gets it: 32 votes, 16.58%

Remove artillery: 14 votes, 7.25%

Overhaul, but remove artillery if that's not enough: 23 votes, 11.92%

Overhaul, but keep artillery: 23 votes, 11.92%

Modify artillery, but no overhaul needed: 18, 9.33%

Artillery is fine, or I don't care: 43, 22.28%

I love artillery: 40 votes, 20.73%

 

For those that are interested, even though they were not the point of the poll, the three "Artillery are in a pretty good spot" options represented 52.34% of the results. The three "Artillery should probably be removed" options represented 35.75% of the results. The "Needs major changes, but the class is necessary" option was 11.92%. (Note that rounding differences will make these not slightly add up, but they're recorded as they were displayed by the forum software). If you wish to divide among "They're mostly fine" and "Needs major work", the community here (at least those that responded) is nearly split with "artillery is fine" having a ~4% edge.

 

However, this was not the goal of the poll. The goal of the poll was to run the regression analysis against the two. Below you'll find a chart of a linear plot from that analysis.

 

 

To the left is a scale from 1-10. You can relate that back to the votes based on the table I provided at the top of this post, where 10 is the strongest dislike for artillery and 1 is the strongest like for artillery. On the bottom, running left to right, is the axis representing each player's recent WN8, from 0-5500 (I went to 5500 because I wanted the graphs to align between both only the official forum results and the combined results)

 

A key result from the regression analysis to look out to determine whether or not two related variables are highly correlated is the p-value. A p-value of < 0.05 is considered statistically significant, meaning, it's highly unlikely the relationship is random. The closer you get to 0 the more certain you can be of the relationship between the two. Our p-value for this test was .000000000799. Meaning, it's impossible to believe that the relationship between the two is random.

 

The conclusion is that, the better you are at WoT, as measured by WN8, the more likely you are to strongly dislike artillery. The orange line of dots shows you what the analysis would predict your opinion is based on your recent WN8. The orange line is what the analysis predicts your vote would be at each recent WN8 point along the way based on the total influence of all votes and recent WN8's. Not how far below 1000 the lowest point is and how well above 3000 the highest points are. Essentially, it predicts that unicums are likely to want artillery removed, blues want an overhaul and greens and below are either happy with it or want much smaller changes.

 

If we do the same analysis for recent winrate as we did for recent WN8, we find a strong correleation again. Our p-value for this test was .00000000145. Though it appears there are fewer data points, that is only because I only had whole numbers to work with for winrate. The larger the glow bubble, the more players were at that given whole number winrate. Again, the correlation is too strong for a null hypothesis by a wide margin. As with recent WN8, player skill measured by winrate shows that the better you are at WoT, the less satisfied you are with artillery.

 

 

Updated the post with the location of the data for any skeptics. Note that people's WN8 ratings are always shifting slightly as they play, so you may find numbers slightly different from mine, but not by much. I gathered the data in one huge block so it's as accurate as it can be relative to itself.

 

Conclusion

 

This shows a relationship, an undeniable relationship that shows the more skill you have at WoT the less likely you are to be satisfied with artillery. What it doesn't show or explain is why. That is what is worth discussion. What might the reason be? I have my own thoughts as to why this is the case which I've shared on this forum previously. However, when I did so, some actually objected that this relationship existed to begin with. With that objection removed, I'm curious what their explanations for this relationship would be.

 

Why is it that the less skilled you are at World of Tanks, the more likely you are to be satisfied with artillery?

 



Buddha1369 #2 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:00

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[content moderated.non-constructive]
~Moderation Team


RyanGetzIaf #3 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:02

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View Post_Intrepid, on May 03 2014 - 16:57, said:

 

Why is it that the less skilled you are at World of Tanks, the more likely you are to be satisfied with artillery?

 

 

Because you don't need to understand half the game mechanics (or even know they exist) to be able to 1 shot anyone. 



Armored21st #4 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:07

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or because if you have good stats it seem no matter what tank you are or what tier you are you have an arty target on your back.

Weapons_Grade_Autisms #5 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:09

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because you only need 1/3rd the skill-set of a tanker to be a top1% arty player compared to 1% of tanker

 

 

 

and it's a lot rng based also


Edited by _Smiley, May 03 2014 - 22:09.


HardcoreOne #6 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:09

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Wow what a post  +1

 

Bottom line Arty is a passive tank....you sit back wait for someone to get lit up and then take your shots

 

and half the time you are on the losing side and you get popped

 

This is not attractive to the aggressive spit spewing denizens who haunt the upper tiers...IMO


Edited by HardcoreOne, May 03 2014 - 22:09.


_Intrepid #7 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:09

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View PostArmored21st, on May 03 2014 - 23:07, said:

or because if you have good stats it seem no matter what tank you are or what tier you are you have an arty target on your back.

 

That's an interesting thing to look at. Since XVM uses overall rather than recent, I can run it again versus overall WN8 and see if the relationship is weaker or stronger. If this was the reason, you would expect an even stronger relationship from overall WN8 than recent WN8. Even better, because so many have recents much better than their overalls, that should be a very noticable shift in the quantity of votes. Testable, I'll add this to the list of things to do with the data.



Decos #8 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:11

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I think that the more skill you get in the game relates to arty becoming less fun to play.  You are at the mercy of your team in arty.  In a tank you have more options.

FluffyBadBad #9 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:13

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Depends on the mood for me.

 

When I want to play for real then I play a tank and aim for weak spots. I like the challenge and I try to bring my A game.

 

When I don't care, or i'm tired, or sick of a losing streak, then...

 

"whack a mole" gives me happy sensations even in a bad game. The random 1 shots are always good for a smile and trolling opportunities come built in to the mechanics :)



Red_Ensign #10 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:16

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*yawn*

akoaih #11 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:18

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WNx measures individual performance in a team game.  Arty is a very team-based game mechanic.

_Kiyo #12 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:20

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I'd be less bothered by arty if XVM would tell me if the enemy arty was using XVM too. It'd be nice to know whether or not I can be aggressive or stick with passively supporting my team.

lamplight #13 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:23

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Arty is also an extremely random mechanic, and that is largely why the more skilled player base doesn't like it. Artillery takes less skill to do well in and is more forgiving to bad players. Hence good players frustration with it.

LonelyGuardian #14 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:23

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My main is grinding French arty for the on-track mission. He thinks that Arty is too RNG-based instead of skill, he can lead a target perfectly about 50% of the time he tries... and RNG tells him either "lolnope" or hits even if he failed at leading. You can shoot at a T95 in the open and miss 5 times in a row even if he is not moving. That is why higher skilled players hate it, it nullfies their skill and makes it a slot machine. Lower skilled players like it because it helps them deal damage they otherwise would have failed to do.

 

BTW did u use my main for WN8? (see sig) or did u use this posting account?



Buddha1369 #15 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:23

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Possibly:

 

0.  High quality players who enjoy support classes are EXTREMELY RARE.  Its true for any game from WoT to STO to WoW.

1.  The shame of having your T9 killed by a T4.

2.  Arty is 100% team reliant for both offence and defense.

3.  Arty can not push and very rarely carries, they are a utility not a force.

4.  Its boring, more so as your battle count grows.  30k games in arty? kill me now.

5.  Most T10 matches are basically campfests, whoever camps harder usually wins.  More camping=more being shot by arty.

Honestly I don't know.

 

 

Have a +1 for doing the work though, sadly most people wont even bother to read it just click red or green and start flaming.



aqollo #16 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:25

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The possible flaw with your graph is that good players are rarer than bad players and uneven distribution are expected.

_Intrepid #17 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:25

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View PostLonelyGuardian, on May 03 2014 - 23:23, said:

BTW did u use my main for WN8? (see sig) or did u use this posting account?

 

Yours was one of the votes I had to ignore because the associated account did not qualify (< 100 games).



wh1skybarrel #18 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:26

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View Post_Intrepid, on May 03 2014 - 16:57, said:

Why is it that the less skilled you are at World of Tanks, the more likely you are to be satisfied with artillery?

 

So, so many words.  Do people really care this much?

 

Anyways, more people enjoy playing non-arty vehicles because the idea of navigating a tank across the battlefield, and engaging others in combat, is more fun than just sitting in birds eye view all game timing one-clicks on moving tanks.  

 

I'd wager to say that what brings most people to World of Tanks, is the idea of actually driving around and blowing stuff up.  You'd be hard up to find 'arty-view' being the focus of a World of Tanks commercial trying to attract new players.....  Wouldn't seem nearly as fun would it?

 

I'd also have to wager that firing at enemies while you are also driving your tank, rotating your turret, all while trying to avoid other enemy fire, is much more difficult than sitting in a bush and one-clicking.  So yes, which is the most skilled player going to enjoy actually doing the most, and vice versa?

 

The End.  

 

Now it's time to go out, have some beers, and enjoy my Saturday night, enjoy.

 

 



DrKrieg #19 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:27

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The reason why skilled players like arty less is:

 

1) an skilled player doesnt play arty much because... just... sits.. or w/e around while your shell reloads for 30 or more seconds.. 30! thats.. 30 seconds of total inactivity.. just sit there and..  yawn..

 

2) skilled players hate when they got hit by arty driven by a 44%er, they say its disgusting, i think its just RNG and move on..

 

3) miss a shot, thats another 30 seconds of doing nothing, splash damage in low and mid tier arty is disgustingly low and the high tier one is disgustingly high

 

thats basically it, however personally i think that if a shell lands on me it was more RNG than skill or anything else, in fact, i find myself winning more times against them than them against me and by the number of battle buttons hit it doesnt really affect your stats as others would say, it certainly wont make your stats hit bottom rock as "unish*ts claim" its just rng, exit battle and move on.

 

 



_Intrepid #20 Posted May 03 2014 - 22:28

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View Postaqollo, on May 03 2014 - 23:25, said:

The possible flaw with your graph is that good players are rarer than bad players and uneven distribution are expected.

 

This would actually harm the relationship if this were true, in that there wouldn't be enough higher skilled players available in the poll to drag the prediction value for vote higher as skill increases. There were plenty of unicums in the sample set. When I combine data from the other data set, where it's a large percentage of unicums for 180+ votes, the relationship only gets stronger. The result is actually pretty solid. Sure, I'd like to have seen 1000 votes or so for the best possible accuracy, but the sample size is large enough and widespread enough in terms of demographics to be extrapolated to the larger population.







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