A lot of people complain about blowout battles. A lot of angst goes into "bad teams", "bad MM", "rigging", etc.

But some people point out that blowouts should be more common than many people think they should. I agree with them. The underlying reason is that WoT is inherently unstable since there is no respawning. Once you begin to lose the chance of losing accelerates.

I did some computations to show this. This is a very very simple probabilistic model (a "Monte Carlo" simulation). The chance of killing an enemy tank is directly proportional to the number of your tanks left. For this I have left out capping and draws.

A blow out is defined as a result of between 15-0 and 15-4. I simulated 10,000 battles and the probability of each blowout score was determined.

For this first example the teams are exactly balanced.

Win % 50/50

15-0 0.58%

15-1 1.81%

15-2 3.93%

15-3 6.61%

15-4 8.22%

Any Blowout: 21.15%

So it appears that in a 50:50 match you should expect a result worse than 15:5 every 5 battles. (This doesn't indicate which side you are on, so 15:4 and 4:15 are the same.)

Since you are interested, changing the balance does effect the number of blowouts, but not dramatically. I did four different balance ratios, but I will only show the greatest imbalance. You can interpolate the others.

This simulation shows 10000 battles between two teams that are significantly unbalanced.

win % 83/17

15-0 1.27%

15-1 3.97%

15-2 7.30%

15-3 10.20%

15-4 11.60%

Any Blowout: 34.34%

So for every 3 battles where the odds are as uneven as 87/13 there should be one blowout.

TLDR: MM is fine, and blowouts are about as common as would be expected from basic statistical probability.