# Improved Fantasy Point Formula

This was the ranked second highest for “What feature would you most like to see added to the Fantasy site?” on the survey held some time ago. Here’s what I’ve come up with.

## Preamble

This post covers the very basics about the new formula I’ve created as a candidate for replacing the existing formula. If you want more information, there are a number of more in-depth resources linked at the bottom of this post.

Note: In this post, when I refer to the existing fantasy point formula, I’m referring to a slightly modified version which uses 0.2 (instead of 0.8) for the multipliers for Capture/Defense Points, and only awards points for those metrics to the winning team.

## The Existing Formula

First and foremost, the existing formula works pretty well. This is particularly true for larger sets of data (say a season’s worth of data).

The weaknesses of the existing formula, from my point of view, is when looking at the results of an individual battle: There are a number of edge cases it handles rather poorly due to the ratios used, and generally speaking doesn’t really account for the differences in difficulty based on context.

### Difficulty

By “difficulty” I’m referring to the fact for a given metric--say damage dealt--there is more to it than just the value the player has at the end of the battle.

To start with, there’s a lot of other factors could have made it harder (or easier) for a given player in a given battle to reach that value. For damage dealt, that might be the player’s tank’s starting HP and the total HP of the enemy team.

There is also the nonlinear difficulty increase as any given metric’s value increases. This is to say, for example, getting from 1,000 damage to 2,000 damage is--generally speaking--harder than getting from 0 damage to 1,000 damage, despite in both cases the increase being the same (1,000 damage).

## The New Formula Candidate

Addressing these weaknesses is the primary goal of this new formula, a goal I believe the formula has achieved to some degree:

Difficulty is accounted for by considering context based factors like the player’s tank’s characteristics and the enemy team’s HP pool, in addition to using a nonlinear function to help take into account nonlinear difficulty increases.

Likewise, I have not found any edge cases that would award a large number of fantasy points for a arguably poor performance.

### Other Major Differences

Lower average fantasy points. With the existing formula, the average fantasy points earned by a player in a battle was 39, versus 19 in the new formula. The highest average for a player (sans Sublimebanana with 1 battle)--in both cases--is Oxmathus, earning an average of 51.6983 fantasy points in the existing formula, versus 19.4974 in the new formula.

There is a higher relative difference in fantasy points earned between the lowest and highest scoring players in the new formula. With the existing formula, the average points earned for the lowest scoring player is 55.04% of the average for the highest scoring player (Oxmathus), versus 47.76% with the new formula.

In terms of what contributed to the total fantasy points earned, damage dealt (+10%), kills (+3%), and penetration ratio (+1%) all saw upticks with the new formula, while spotting assist (-2%) and damage blocked (-1%) saw reductions, and distance traveled (8%) and damaged tanks (3%) were outright removed.

---

So, those are the basics of the new formula. I’m happy to answer any questions, and interested to know what everyone thinks; does this new formula seem better, worse, or simply different than the existing one? Any thoughts on areas of improvement?

For more details:

Design Details: https://docs.google.com/document/d/11Q3l_V_xiNe9yyekn_d5j9LV1l0LeUni1ElOqz0dcX4/edit?usp=sharing

Exact Formula: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1UhA0DAxOWHhNgMbt58jQwTpDIluw85JOF4o1puUFX2c/edit?usp=sharing

Data based comparision between the two formulas: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mAqtssKO67Y6lnohvpYgcGkNnShp1yiJov4vczKpH7Q/edit?usp=sharing

Case study: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ohi_KhE0_ulczOVoG8FYAFiS_k5GmYa8UqXHBpiOs9s/edit?usp=sharing

---

Comparsion tool for use with any replay: https://github.com/JoshuaEN/Fantasy-Point-Tester/releases/tag/v1.0

Here’s the replays from the last WGLNA Live Finals for easy downloading: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3ix0OKW45noZUZSakpmbi1zR28

The rest of the past season’s replays are available at: http://wotreplays.com/wgleague#?league=na_gold&season=3

You can also try it out on replays from random battles or what not, though it’s not designed around random battles it tends to work alright from what I’ve seen.