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Would you believe the world is more peaceful now than at any time in history?


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mattwong #1 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:27

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I know, it sounds crazy.  But ...

https://medium.com/@...b5ce#.p9htlrjr3

 

Here's the relevant excerpt:

Quote

The immediate reaction to a claim like that is of course, disbelief. The brutal conflict in Syria has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, and displaced millions. We are in the midst of the largest refugee crisis of modern times, and terrorism is also at an all-time high. Every night our screens are saturated with images of hollowed out buildings in Fallujah and Aleppo, masked men flying black flags in the desert, and the faces of the latest innocent victims in Baghdad, Lagos, Paris, Brussels and Orlando.

 

But, as Joshua S. Goldstein and Steven Pinker point out in a recent Boston Globe editorial, our obsession with these stories blind us to a far greater truth. Outside the Middle East, war is effectively disappearing.

 

...

 

The world was a far more dangerous place when you were born. Death tolls from wars in the 1970s and 1980s were 4–5 times higher than they are today. We are, despite reports of religious and political insurgencies, despite high-profile terrorist killings and unrest in various corners of the globe, living in the most peaceful era of our species’ existence. The world is getting less violent; we’re just more aware of the violence that happens, thanks to the mass availability of information.

 

Just some positive news, to counteract the relentless negativity you're hearing from our "news" organizations.

 

PS. I am not posting this to encourage political debate about foreign policy.  I am posting it because a lot of people think the world is plunging into chaos, when it's actually more peaceful than it's ever been.  The sky isn't falling.  The human race is actually improving.  Don't believe the fear.  The future isn't bleak.


Edited by mattwong, Aug 16 2016 - 04:27.


Strike_Witch_Tomoko #2 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:29

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outside of middle east.   yeah more peaceful than ever before.

 

but at the same time national pride and hatred of other nations is about the same. only need to look at how russia looks at the US.   or US politicians look at china.

 

so is the end of the world coming?  no.   but are we approaching peace.   no.     we stuck in this "not quite peace, but close" state

 

 

also screw the news.  they only report on events that cause outrage cause that leads to more publicity.    they've failed as a news institute.



Willy_W_Wonka #3 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:29

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Looks are often deceiving but yes it is very calm on the surface.

AndrewSledge #4 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:31

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Yeah, whenever I start getting worried about current affairs, I think about the chaos of the ancient world, the medieval era, heck, even WW1. Looking at the daily casualty numbers from some of those WW1 battles is horrifying. 

Mudman24 #5 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:32

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Yep, as everthing continues to get better we are fed death and terror by the minute through the nearly instant 24/7 media that we have access to, making it seem as though the world is burning.

mattwong #6 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:32

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View Postyoggraid, on Aug 15 2016 - 22:29, said:

Looks are often deceiving but yes it is very calm on the surface.

 

We've experienced an 80% decline in global deaths from armed conflict since the 1970s and 1980s.  That's more than a superficial change.



Cutthroatlemur #7 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:32

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Ironically the fear of mutually assured nuclear destruction has led to a more peaceful world.  Kinda sad that's what it took...

mattwong #8 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:34

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View PostCutthroatlemur, on Aug 15 2016 - 22:32, said:

Ironically the fear of mutually assured nuclear destruction has led to a more peaceful world.  Kinda sad that's what it took...

 

There's something more going on here than that.  We've had MAD since the 1950s.  I think the article's theory (if you read the whole thing) makes quite a bit of sense.

Willy_W_Wonka #9 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:36

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View Postmattwong, on Aug 15 2016 - 21:32, said:

 

We've experienced an 80% decline in global deaths from armed conflict since the 1970s and 1980s.  That's more than a superficial change.

 

True but don't expect that to continue, we are in a period of calm that comes before the storm but like a bolt from the blue things can change quickly when most expected it not. 



An_old_slow_guy #10 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:39

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<Content Moderated by HioHype>

Edited by HioHype, Aug 16 2016 - 14:50.


Dirizon #11 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:39

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There was a time,  in which the lstari wizards banded together to combine their wisdom and fortitude, resulting in them expelling an old nameless fear, a forgotten necromancer from a stone spire, surrounded by the darkened, thick forests of Green Wood. This once tyrannical yet still great spirit, not yet in physical form, fled east beyond the brown lands into desolation. For 4OO years, that presence was no longer felt, and the security of the lands increased in the south - a watchful peace ensued, will all eyes then concentrating on the eastern City of the Dead amongst the terrifying Ash Mountains. For they knew that the terrible wailing witches still dwelt there.

 

Well, l guess we haven't exactly enjoyed 4OO years of peace, but all these low intensity conflicts, disputes, political statement wars, Etc definitely beats another world war 1  or  2.

 

 



Klaatu_Nicto #12 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:41

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View PostCutthroatlemur, on Aug 15 2016 - 19:32, said:

Ironically the fear of mutually assured nuclear destruction has led to a more peaceful world.  Kinda sad that's what it took...

 

In today's news, because of the Western-sponsored regime change in Ukraine and what has transpired since, Russia is building dozens of underground bunkers capable of withstanding atomic blasts.

Willy_W_Wonka #13 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:44

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View PostAn_old_slow_guy, on Aug 15 2016 - 21:39, said:

Vote for Trump and that will all change,  he would let the missiles fly, and probably shave 200-300 million off global population in a few months. More for the rest of us.

 

Clinton can't be trusted either but then again none of them can be, even Putin wouldn't hesitate to push the button and the China is looking for a fight. Out of their own press a paper was published calling for" blowing" up of Australian ships in the South China Sea. People think that we got peace we don't we got a status quo that has to be maintained or all hell breaks lose.

mattwong #14 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:49

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View Postyoggraid, on Aug 15 2016 - 22:44, said:

Clinton can't be trusted either but then again none of them can be, even Putin wouldn't hesitate to push the button and the China is looking for a fight. Out of their own press a paper was published calling for" blowing" up of Australian ships in the South China Sea. People think that we got peace we don't we got a status quo that has to be maintained or all hell breaks lose.

 

You are clinging to that negativity like a drowning man holding onto a life preserver.



Willy_W_Wonka #15 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:49

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View PostKrentel, on Aug 15 2016 - 21:41, said:

 

In today's news, because of the Western-sponsored regime change in Ukraine and what has transpired since, Russia is building dozens of underground bunkers capable of withstanding atomic blasts.

 

Geopolitical chess board and Ukraine has been in the crosshairs for some time before the mess even started. The pushing and shoving will continue until one player ups the stakes and makes bold moves making it all worse for everyone else. Make no mistake Putin wants a bigger slice of the pie and the west is all the same, two lions strategizing over a scrap of meat always ends in a fight.

saru_richard #16 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:54

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well we can always play this song if the worse happens: 

Willy_W_Wonka #17 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:57

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View Postmattwong, on Aug 15 2016 - 21:49, said:

 

You are clinging to that negativity like a drowning man holding onto a life preserver.

 

Go look for yourself and it is in our faces in plain sight.

Striker_70 #18 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 04:59

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edited for possible political content

 

 


Edited by Striker_70, Aug 16 2016 - 05:32.


SapFireMC #19 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 05:03

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Yes, the world is getting more peaceful. But WoT isn't.

Commder_Kozak #20 Posted Aug 16 2016 - 05:27

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Im not sure what the theory of the whole thing is (cause I didn't read it), but from my knowledge the death counts have gone down due to soldier's lives being seen as actually important, and an overall change of tactics. Just look at WW1, 1914-1915, big thought process was if you throw enough crap at a wall, then some of it will stick. In 1916-1918 it changed massively to, everyone knows the plan, everyone gets a map and compass so no one gets lost, everyone knows their objectives, attacks are planned and practiced for months in advance, secondary plans are set up so that if one group fails their objective, another can quickly and efficiently pick up and complete it, with everything planned to have the lowest possible amount of casualties for the biggest gain among other things to lessen the amount of soldier's dying (like safety ropes to help stop soldiers drowning in the mud duringthatreallymuddyswampybattlethatIcantrememberforsomereason). Now in modern combat unless you are blown up by a bomb meant for an armoured vehicle or some other form of explosive, you really have a good chance to survive being wounded, or not really injured in the first place when hit. I know of a body armour that could fairly easily stop an AK round from close range, and even protect against a frag grenade, when placed right on top of it. Protection of a soldier, and overall lack of will to engage in full out combat have lessened death tolls ever since WW2.




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