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Would you believe the world is more peaceful now than at any time in history?


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RamaLamaDingDong2 #41 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 01:27

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View PostKrentel, on Aug 16 2016 - 12:51, said:

 

America was not created as a democracy. It was created as a republic and this is why.

 

"Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There was never a democracy yet that did not commit suicide." - John Adams.

 

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years." - Alexander Fraser Tytler

 

Your quote from Tyler where he is absolutely wrong about time frame or has a totally different criteria for the term great.

Klaatu_Nicto #42 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 02:23

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View PostCanOfTomatoes, on Aug 16 2016 - 16:27, said:

 

Your quote from Tyler where he is absolutely wrong about time frame or has a totally different criteria for the term great.

 

Alexander Fraser Tytler, 15 October 1747 – 5 January 1813

Klaatu_Nicto #43 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 02:41

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View PostHorribad_At_Tanks, on Aug 16 2016 - 12:12, said:

Gotta rotate that stuff out. Canned food is technically good for decades as long as it's kept sealed and cool but it still can turn bitter or slimy even if it can still be eaten. :P

 

 

I have no plans to eat any of it. It's kind of out of sight so I forgot I had it until I saw 'canned food' and 'Y2K' mentioned. Before the Y2K scare I already had about 400 MRE meals, a 30 pound sack of rice, six 1 gallon nitrogen filled cans of meat flavored soybean and two 55 gallon drums full of water so I don't know why I bothered to buy the canned stuff'. Maybe for some variety if it really did happen. 

 

I got a kick out of how China responded to the Y2K scare with it's airlines. In order to make sure the airline executives took Y2K preparations seriously all the top executives had to be on a plane in flight when Y2K hit. :D:great:



Horribad_At_Tanks #44 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 02:51

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View PostKrentel, on Aug 16 2016 - 20:41, said:

I have no plans to eat any of it. It's kind of out of sight so I forgot I had it until I saw 'canned food' and 'Y2K' mentioned. Before the Y2K scare I already had about 400 MRE meals, a 30 pound sack of rice, six 1 gallon nitrogen filled cans of meat flavored soybean and two 55 gallon drums full of water so I don't know why I bothered to buy the canned stuff'. Maybe for some variety if it really did happen. 

 

I got a kick out of how China responded to the Y2K scare with it's airlines. In order to make sure the airline executives took Y2K preparations seriously all the top executives had to be on a plane in flight when Y2K hit. :D:great:

 

Yeah that's what I meant by cycling it out but you have a serious stash going on so i can understand missing a few items. The variety angle has merit too as there was a reason spice was the stuff of massive trade fortunes back in the day because you would go mad eating unseasoned meat and veggies day after week after month after year. Just a few bottles of flavor like smoke or hot sauce etc go a long way to making a simple bag of rice become a looked for treat instead of a bland and boring survival meal.

 

Now to address our lurkers chuckling at prepper advice just ask yourselves how nice would it be to have a nice reserve of food and water when stranded without power like some current louisiana residents who are above the flooding but stuck with no way out? It could be a fun camping type of experience where you are well fed and entertained as you wait for evacuation or return of power or you could be freaking out because everything in the fridge is rotten and you just ate the last box of crunch and munch.

 

Choose wisely as disaster can strike anytime and have nothing to do with conspiracy theories and terrorist plots.



mattwong #45 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 03:03

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View PostHorribad_At_Tanks, on Aug 16 2016 - 15:12, said:

This is from within the article you linked and he acknowledges that all we are in is a very very brief time in the world when conflict is at an ebb tide but the tides of war are just as predictable as the ocean tides and from the signs it's going to come rolling back in just like it has like clockwork since man first figured out he could get another's food by bashing his fellow man ape over the head with a club.

 

No, that is NOT what that passage says.  It says that war is not completely gone: it's just at its lowest ebb in history, and it is NOT saying that it is about to come roaring back.  In fact, it argues that the causes of unprecedented peace are structural: something you would know if you were not lying about reading the article.  You did not read it: you SKIMMED it, looking for something you could quote horribly out of context.



Horribad_At_Tanks #46 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 03:14

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View Postmattwong, on Aug 16 2016 - 21:03, said:

 

No, that is NOT what that passage says.  It says that war is not completely gone: it's just at its lowest ebb in history, and it is NOT saying that it is about to come roaring back.  In fact, it argues that the causes of unprecedented peace are structural: something you would know if you were not lying about reading the article.  You did not read it: you SKIMMED it, looking for something you could quote horribly out of context.

 

No I read it from front to back and can't find anything in it that refutes millennia of human history and I don't accept his narrative. That we are currently in a more or less major conflict free period is just an illusion of overall peace like it always is. Take brazil. No official war there but the body count might as well be from one with the daily killings all across the nation and that's just the tip of the iceberg as venezuela is falling fast due to the petro dollar crashing its economy with many other struggling economies right at the brink with the resultant breakdown of government and law and order which sets the seeds for the next war. Sorry matt but whilst I'd love to drink the peace koolaid and have us all live happily ever after we as a global species simply have not outgrown our monkey ways no matter how much lipstick we put on.

Speedy_DePalma #47 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 07:15

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View PostHorribad_At_Tanks, on Aug 16 2016 - 20:14, said:

 

No I read it from front to back and can't find anything in it that refutes millennia of human history and I don't accept his narrative. That we are currently in a more or less major conflict free period is just an illusion of overall peace like it always is. Take brazil. No official war there but the body count might as well be from one with the daily killings all across the nation and that's just the tip of the iceberg as venezuela is falling fast due to the petro dollar crashing its economy with many other struggling economies right at the brink with the resultant breakdown of government and law and order which sets the seeds for the next war. Sorry matt but whilst I'd love to drink the peace koolaid and have us all live happily ever after we as a global species simply have not outgrown our monkey ways no matter how much lipstick we put on.

 

https://www.theguard...ence-helicopter

What better way to celebrate winning the olympics bid than go shoot down a police helicopter, that's a first.



Horribad_At_Tanks #48 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 07:28

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View PostSpeedy_DePalma, on Aug 17 2016 - 01:15, said:

 

https://www.theguard...ence-helicopter

What better way to celebrate winning the olympics bid than go shoot down a police helicopter, that's a first.

 

It's even worse now because even the common man is committing violent crimes right alongside the gangs due to how desperate people have become as the country keeps sliding further down as more and more public infrastructure and business collapses with nothing to replace it.

Klaatu_Nicto #49 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 08:31

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View PostHorribad_At_Tanks, on Aug 16 2016 - 17:51, said:

 

 

Choose wisely as disaster can strike anytime and have nothing to do with conspiracy theories and terrorist plots.

 

Folks are much, much more likely to find themselves in need due to a natural disaster which is the main reason I'm a prepper.  I live not far from a volcano and we also have a 9.0 or greater mega thrust quake in our future. I don't think it was until the 1980's or 90's they discovered we have mega thrust quakes so all the bridges and building built before then were not built to withstand a quake of that magnitude. Based on the Cascadia fault's history the Puget Sound area is overdue for the big one.

 

For those who don't know, the most destructive quake in the U.S will not happen on the west coast. It will happen here:

 

 

Two hundred years ago a series of 8.0 or greater quakes struck that area. When it happens again most of the infrastructure and many, many buildings from St. Louis to Memphis will be destroyed.

 


Edited by Krentel, Aug 17 2016 - 08:34.


Horribad_At_Tanks #50 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 10:06

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Oh speaking of world peace looks like the brexit is allowing britain to clean house in ways they couldn't before(or face eu sanctions) to shore up their embattled culture and government from the insidious creep of multiculturalism which it is turning out is just a front for radicals of all types to bring down western civilization starting with europe. I figured the brits were too stubborn and freedom minded to let it go on forever. Cheers on your first victory in what will no doubt be a long and bitter war. :honoring:

 

http://www.bbc.com/n...gazine-36979892

 

View PostKrentel, on Aug 17 2016 - 02:31, said:

 

Folks are much, much more likely to find themselves in need due to a natural disaster which is the main reason I'm a prepper.  I live not far from a volcano and we also have a 9.0 or greater mega thrust quake in our future. I don't think it was until the 1980's or 90's they discovered we have mega thrust quakes so all the bridges and building built before then were not built to withstand a quake of that magnitude. Based on the Cascadia fault's history the Puget Sound area is overdue for the big one.

 

 

Yep, with extreme weather on the rise along with the ever present danger of a large quake or forest fire or even a major riot imposing a shelter in place order you lurkers can't go wrong with at least an easy to put together two week reserve of canned and dry goods along with some survival essentials like an all band radio with some quality rechargeable batteries and a small solar charger for the batteries, cellphones and other electronics as cell towers will still operate if power goes out until they run out of emergency fuel. Plenty of solid advice to be found out there for any level of preparedness from the common two week shelter in place plans all the way up to a full blown gtfo bob setup when shtf with maps and secondary routes to get to the safety of your pre stocked shelter. I myself decided to skip all that gtfo of the city planning and simply gtfo of the city years ago when the getting was still cheap and good land still around to buy.

 

 



Willy_W_Wonka #51 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 13:50

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View PostKrentel, on Aug 17 2016 - 01:31, said:

 

Folks are much, much more likely to find themselves in need due to a natural disaster which is the main reason I'm a prepper.  I live not far from a volcano and we also have a 9.0 or greater mega thrust quake in our future. I don't think it was until the 1980's or 90's they discovered we have mega thrust quakes so all the bridges and building built before then were not built to withstand a quake of that magnitude. Based on the Cascadia fault's history the Puget Sound area is overdue for the big one.

 

For those who don't know, the most destructive quake in the U.S will not happen on the west coast. It will happen here:

 

 

Two hundred years ago a series of 8.0 or greater quakes struck that area. When it happens again most of the infrastructure and many, many buildings from St. Louis to Memphis will be destroyed.

 

 

Those north of that are in for a very ugly surprise where people are not expecting anything at all even part of Canada is at risk. "mid continental rift system"

Nunya_000 #52 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 15:52

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View Postmattwong, on Aug 15 2016 - 19:27, said:

I know, it sounds crazy.  But ...

https://medium.com/@...b5ce#.p9htlrjr3

 

Here's the relevant excerpt:

Quote

The immediate reaction to a claim like that is of course, disbelief. The brutal conflict in Syria has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, and displaced millions. We are in the midst of the largest refugee crisis of modern times, and terrorism is also at an all-time high. Every night our screens are saturated with images of hollowed out buildings in Fallujah and Aleppo, masked men flying black flags in the desert, and the faces of the latest innocent victims in Baghdad, Lagos, Paris, Brussels and Orlando.

 

But, as Joshua S. Goldstein and Steven Pinker point out in a recent Boston Globe editorial, our obsession with these stories blind us to a far greater truth. Outside the Middle East, war is effectively disappearing.

 

...

 

The world was a far more dangerous place when you were born. Death tolls from wars in the 1970s and 1980s were 4–5 times higher than they are today. We are, despite reports of religious and political insurgencies, despite high-profile terrorist killings and unrest in various corners of the globe, living in the most peaceful era of our species’ existence. The world is getting less violent; we’re just more aware of the violence that happens, thanks to the mass availability of information.

 

Just some positive news, to counteract the relentless negativity you're hearing from our "news" organizations.

 

PS. I am not posting this to encourage political debate about foreign policy.  I am posting it because a lot of people think the world is plunging into chaos, when it's actually more peaceful than it's ever been.  The sky isn't falling.  The human race is actually improving.  Don't believe the fear.  The future isn't bleak.

 

I find that hard to believe.  There must be hundreds of thousands of tank battles on a daily basis.  Heck, I am usually in about a dozen tank battles myself each day.



mattwong #53 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 18:20

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View PostHorribad_At_Tanks, on Aug 16 2016 - 21:14, said:

No I read it from front to back and can't find anything in it that refutes millennia of human history and I don't accept his narrative.

 

Yet you make not the slightest effort to explain what's wrong with his argument.  You merely state your competing opinion, with no supporting evidence whatsoever, and act as if it's superior.  By the way, "thousands of years of history" is not a valid argument against the theory that unprecedented modern technology and global trade in goods and information have created unique conditions for peace.  Moreover, the mere fact that you try to vaguely use "thousands of years of history" against an argument which is clearly predicated upon the unique technological conditions of the modern era says to me that, despite your protestations, I was correct in my initial assessment that you did not read the article enough to understand it.  You just skimmed it, searching for something to quote out of context.  The fact that you've pivoted from saying "the article actually says something different than what you're saying" to "OK, the article says what you're saying but I think the author is wrong" kind of makes that obvious.


Edited by mattwong, Aug 17 2016 - 18:22.


Klaatu_Nicto #54 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 19:02

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View Postyoggraid, on Aug 17 2016 - 04:50, said:

 

Those north of that are in for a very ugly surprise where people are not expecting anything at all even part of Canada is at risk. "mid continental rift system"

 

Powerful quakes in the U.S which take down the infrastructure will impact Canada but you don't need a quake for that. :ohmy:

 

Texas - :great:

 

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/What-Will-You-Do-when-the-Lights-Go-Out-The-Inevitable-Failure-of-the-US-Grid.html


Edited by Krentel, Aug 17 2016 - 19:03.


aethervox #55 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 19:08

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View Postmattwong, on Aug 16 2016 - 13:57, said:

From the comments, I can tell that most of the people commenting couldn't bother to read the article.  This is the damage that Twitter has wrought: people who can't be bothered to read a single-page article before posting their comments on its conclusions, and who use low-effort arguments like "open your eyes" as evidence.  At least this guy actually admitted he didn't bother reading it:

 

 

I have never used Twitter. Don't assume all responders do, 'MattWrong'.

Nor do I quote  like you from a one page  whatever it is you referenced. How about you go read some books in the library as I suggested, 'MattWrong'.



mattwong #56 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 22:04

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View Postaethervox, on Aug 17 2016 - 13:08, said:

 

I have never used Twitter. Don't assume all responders do, 'MattWrong'.

Nor do I quote  like you from a one page  whatever it is you referenced. How about you go read some books in the library as I suggested, 'MattWrong'.

 

I love the way you pretend you have provided more support for your opinion than my source, without disputing any of its factual claims and without citing anything other than "the library".  Tell me, have you ever gone to a place called "school"?  It's a big building with teachers in it.  That's where they teach you the proper method of refuting an argument.

Cognitive_Dissonance #57 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 22:36

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Jeesh, you folks are missing Matt's point entirely. You keep focusing (most) on the last 100 years. Go back, waaay back. Even with the atrocities in Sudan, Syria, Afghanistan etc. the world is actually better off.

 

When Ghengis swept through Afghanistan and other silk road territories, he favored artists, so when they took a town, village, province, all the politicians, teachers, priests and merchants had their heads chopped off, and piled high in pyramids. Excepting of course the lucky artisans.

 

This also had the net result of destroying most of the knowledge, and infrastructure for any culture he invaded. Piles of heads meters high. You think Sudan is bad? The expansion and collapse of empires right up to the dark ages encompasses so much death and destruction, that Hitler, Stalin, and modern day sadistic drug lords would look like secondary wanna bee's.

 

Matt is right, the article has good insight. Things, can, are and will get better. Is it perfect, a glorious Utopia, no, but it certainly isn't some dark Dystopian nightmare either.


Edited by SmirkingGerbil, Aug 17 2016 - 22:44.


Horribad_At_Tanks #58 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 23:11

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View Postmattwong, on Aug 17 2016 - 12:20, said:

yapyapyapyaprainbowsyapyapyapsunshineyapyapyapyapbrotherlyloveyapyapcan'tweallgetalongyapyapyaptechnologywillsaveusyapyapyapthekingdomcomeyapyapyap

 

oh ffs.. :rolleyes:

 

View PostSmirkingGerbil, on Aug 17 2016 - 16:36, said:

Jeesh, you folks are missing Matt's point entirely. You keep focusing (most) on the last 100 years. Go back, waaay back. Even with the atrocities in Sudan, Syria, Afghanistan etc. the world is actually better off.

 

When Ghengis swept through Afghanistan and other silk road territories, he favored artists, so when they took a town, village, province, all the politicians, teachers, priests and merchants had their heads chopped off, and piled high in pyramids. Excepting of course the lucky artisans.

 

This also had the net result of destroying most of the knowledge, and infrastructure for any culture he invaded. Piles of heads meters high. You think Sudan is bad? The expansion and collapse of empires right up to the dark ages encompasses so much death and destruction, that Hitler, Stalin, and modern day sadistic drug lords would look like secondary wanna bee's.

 

Matt is right, the article has good insight. Things, can, are and will get better. Is it perfect, a glorious Utopia, no, but it certainly isn't some dark Dystopian nightmare either.

 

I never refuted the articles claim that we are currently in an overall peaceful time in the world but I simply can't hop on the sunshine wagon about the odds of it holding for long given the millennia of history showing that these brief interludes of general peace never last. Ever. It matters not who the bloodiest or most heinous leaders and nations out of all the tens of thousands of years of conflict are to the ones suffering right now or to the ones who will suffer in the future. Remember that even when the world is in general peace all it takes is a small pebble of unrest to knock loose the built up hate and intolerance that never goes away and is only ever restrained and subdued for as long as possible and war after war after war after war after war after war bears this out.

 

Here watch this about the history of just one small little corner of our planet since the dawn of man and tell me it's over and we will all be singing kumbaya together for the rest of time.

 

 

As for the rest of the world and its high technology boondoggles those make us even more vulnerable to widespread famine and death. How you say? We cannot feed the planet right now without our high technology for increasing crop yields and high tech infrastructure to process and distribute that food. It took armies of millions to kill millions just 80 years ago but now a precise conventional weapon first strike can knock out every critical power plant and factory with almost zero initial casualties but what happens now that the power is off for probably months or years? Starvation and exposure to the elements is what will kill vast numbers off because literally everything we as a modern society rely on to feed and warm the masses relies on stable power and daily factory production. Without that we go back to 18th century level agriculture and food distribution which will never in a million years get the job done. 

 

Hell it wouldn't even take war to do that. Another carrington event(we have had two over the last few years with one barely missing us) would effectively knock out the global power grids and the key parts to fix it are only made in three factories all of which are already badly backlogged on producing replacement parts let alone building up a reserve so large you could fix a global grid meltdown before society collapses.



Klaatu_Nicto #59 Posted Aug 17 2016 - 23:51

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Horribad_At_Tanks, on Aug 17 2016 - 14:11, said:

 

Hell it wouldn't even take war to do that. Another carrington event(we have had two over the last few years with one barely missing us) would effectively knock out the global power grids and the key parts to fix it are only made in three factories all of which are already badly backlogged on producing replacement parts let alone building up a reserve so large you could fix a global grid meltdown before society collapses.

 

We just almost had one.

 



Horribad_At_Tanks #60 Posted Aug 18 2016 - 00:26

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View PostKrentel, on Aug 17 2016 - 17:51, said:

 

We just almost had one.

 

 

Why wait for nature when man can do the same thing but on a local scale handily leaving the attacking country untouched and no irradiated wastelands and fallout to mess up border countries? This one chart is why it's of the utmost importance to keep rogue nations from building nukes and the missiles to launch them. Not because they will blow up a city but because only ~one~ can literally knock a first world country or entire regions of countries right back to the 18th century. Certainly not the stone age effect a conventional nuke strike would do but bad enough in the long term. Even a retaliatory emp strike would do little to a nation like iran or north korea because a large part of those populations already lives like it's the last century or even further back and no power is already something they deal with on a regular basis.

 

 

Makes you wonder if any of those thousands of satellites orbiting up there from nearly every modern and even not so modern nation on earth has a special package inside just waiting to be used. :bajan:






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