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Would you believe the world is more peaceful now than at any time in history?


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Klaatu_Nicto #81 Posted Aug 20 2016 - 19:48

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View PostSmirkingGerbil, on Aug 20 2016 - 03:23, said:

Too many links Krentel. Can't tell what you really think or what your opinion is, as you never complete a cohesive thought. Just other folk's quotes and links.

 

All I have to say to you is "North Atlantic Conveyor", my brother is a climatologist (amateur). The irony of global warming, is you could get a short term cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere due to the NAC shutting down.

 

Google that for a bit.

 

I've posted some "cohesive thoughts" a number of times here in the past couple of years on this subject but what I think should not matter to you or anyone else. What matters is the real world data and what is occurring around the world in regards to weather and climate which I have posted.

 

I don't have to google North Atlantic Conveyor. I've known about it for a long time.. You must of missed my note last year where I wrote about how in 1972 I entered college with plans, which went astray, on getting a degree in oceanography and from December 1979 to May 1980 I worked with scientists at Weyerhaeuser's R&D facility in Federal Way and in their forestry lab in Centralia, both in Washington State. 

 

Do you know the basis behind the theory that a melting Greenland ice cap could shut down the conveyor and that that theory is based on another theory?  Somewhere in The Universe topic I posted a video were the creator of the hockey stick graph and a major proponent of the AGW theory, Michael Mann, discounts this theory. Here's an interesting fact about the NAC. After the warm water sinks to the bottom of the ocean in the North Atlantic it flows south and takes a left turn under Africa and eventually resurfaces in the Pacific ocean. The water that is sinking at this very moment in the North Atlantic will resurface in the Pacific in the year 3016.

 

I am also familiar with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Pacific ENSO and the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation all of which are natural cycles which shift between warm and cold phases and have a major influence on climate and weather. Research over the past couple of years indicate the ADO has ended it's natural warm phase and is entering it's natural cool phase.

 

Lastly, contrary to what Matt keeps saying, I understand the basis behind the AGW theory and am familiar with the effects certain wavelengths have on the outer valence electrons of C02 molecules. What is not understood by proponents of the AGW theory, so is not included in their computer models, is the effect the solar wind and the solar magnetic field have on earths atmosphere, climate and weather. That is why the grand solar minimum is so important in regards to our climate and weather over the next few decades. 



Driftin #82 Posted Aug 20 2016 - 20:22

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View Postmattwong, on Aug 15 2016 - 22:32, said:

 

We've experienced an 80% decline in global deaths from armed conflict since the 1970s and 1980s.  That's more than a superficial change.

 

Alot of that is more about medical technology saving the wounded who would've died in the past than having less conflict. The number of people that are permanently scarred has risen alot from conflicts. Technology also keeps soldiers safer with equipment as well as keeping them more out of harms way in many situations like using drones, long range guided weapons, etc. We've just made war a little safer, essentially.

 

As for your OP, I tell people this regularly and no one seems to believe me. It's amazing how influenced people's views of the world are because of the media. Glad some people understand the reality of world. Just as an example of how things were, I remember reading a journal entry from someone in England in the 1700's. They mentioned a body that had been drawn and quartered along their horse ride to town as casually as they mentioned the weather. To me, that says alot about societal norms and expectations. Today, being slightly not politically correct gets more of a reaction.

 


Edited by Driftin, Aug 20 2016 - 20:34.


Klaatu_Nicto #83 Posted Aug 20 2016 - 21:14

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View PostDriftin, on Aug 20 2016 - 11:22, said:

As for your OP, I tell people this regularly and no one seems to believe me. It's amazing how influenced people's views of the world are because of the media.

 

 

I believe there are more good people in the world doing good things than bad people doing bad things but only the bad people make headline news.

 

 

 


Edited by Krentel, Aug 20 2016 - 21:14.


Klaatu_Nicto #84 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 05:44

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View PostSmirkingGerbil, on Aug 20 2016 - 03:23, said:

Too many links Krentel. Can't tell what you really think or what your opinion is, as you never complete a cohesive thought. Just other folk's quotes and links.

 

All I have to say to you is "North Atlantic Conveyor", my brother is a climatologist (amateur). The irony of global warming, is you could get a short term cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere due to the NAC shutting down.

 

Google that for a bit.

 

If proponents of the AGW theory had solid science and accurate predictions to support their theory that mankind is responsible for the warming trend that began 200 years ago they would not need to engage in the following which is a gross violation of the scientific method and reminiscent of what happened to Galileo.

 

08/09/2016 - Scientist Predicts ‘Little Ice Age,’ Gets Icy Reception From Colleagues

 

Professor Valentina Zharkova at Northumbria University is being attacked by climate change proponents for publishing research suggesting there could be a 35-year period of low solar activity that could usher in an “ice age.”  Zharkova said some scientists even tried to have her research suppressed. “They were trying to actually silence us,” she said. “Some of them contacted the Royal Astronomical Society, demanding, behind our back, that they withdraw our press release.”

http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/09/scientist-predicts-little-ice-age-gets-icey-reception-from-colleagues/

 

Here is the press release and the scientific paper published in Nature which got her and her team in trouble.

 

August 9, 2016 - Little Ice Age on the Way?

 

There are winters and no summers, and so on. So we only hope because these Maunder Minima will be shorter, the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century was about 65 years, the Maunder Minimum which we expect will be lasting not longer than 30-35 years. Of course things are not the same as they were in the 17th century – we have a lot more greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. And it will be interesting to see how the terrestrial and the solar influences play out.
https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/

 

Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and Prediction of Solar Activity on a Millenium Timescale
V. V. Zharkova, S. J. Shepherd, E. Popova & S. I. Zharkov
Sci. Rep. 5, 15689; doi: 10.1038/srep15689 (2015).

 

The records show that solar activity in the current cycle 24 is much lower than in the previous three cycles 21–23 revealing more than a two-year minimum period between cycles 23 and 24. This reduced activity in cycle 24 was very surprising because the previous five cycles were extremely active and sunspot productive forming the Modern Maximum. Although the reduction of solar activity in cycle 24 led some authors to suggest that the Sun is on its way towards the Maunder Minimum of activity.
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689#f3

 

The following comes from the above paper and is the reason for her prediction of a Maunder-like minimum in our near future. The Little Ice Age began in the 1300's and the coldest period of the Little Ice Age began in the mid 1600's and is known as the Maunder Minimum. Take a look at those dates below then look at our current date and you'll see why she is making her prediction. 

 

Variations of the summary poloidal (top plot) and toroidal (bottom plot) [solar] magnetic fields simulated

 

 

 

Galileo was found "vehemently suspect of heresy", namely of having held the opinions that the Sun lies motionless at the center of the universe, that the Earth is not at its center and moves, and that one may hold and defend an opinion as probable after it has been declared contrary to Holy Scripture. He was required to "abjure, curse and detest" those opinions.

 

Galileo was sentenced to formal imprisonment at the pleasure of the Inquisition. On the following day this was commuted to house arrest, which he remained under for the rest of his life.


Galileo's offending Dialogue was banned; and in an action not announced at the trial, publication of any of his works was forbidden, including any he might write in the future.

 

Welcome to the new Inquisition.


Edited by Krentel, Aug 21 2016 - 05:54.


mattwong #85 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 19:00

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For the umpteenth time Krentel, you do not clarify discussion or make cogent points by demonstrating your ability to copy and paste from climate denial websites ad nauseum, and your clumsy attempts to quote source data directly, as is the case when you cite things like cold seasons in certain parts of the world or crop losses, only demonstrate that you don't really understand the issue or how to argue a scientific theory.

 

Have you ever taken a science course in your life?  If you have, then why do you act as if this is the proper method to refute a theory?



Klaatu_Nicto #86 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 19:22

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View Postmattwong, on Aug 21 2016 - 10:00, said:

For the umpteenth time Krentel, you do not clarify discussion or make cogent points by demonstrating your ability to copy and paste from climate denial websites ad nauseum, and your clumsy attempts to quote source data directly, as is the case when you cite things like cold seasons in certain parts of the world or crop losses, only demonstrate that you don't really understand the issue or how to argue a scientific theory.

 

Have you ever taken a science course in your life?  If you have, then why do you act as if this is the proper method to refute a theory?

 

Once again you are being dishonest which is your only way of dealing with me on this subject.

 

All my links are climate denial websites?  You know they are not. You're just trying to make people think they so they will not visit those sites and learn the truth.  

 

Based on previous discussions I've had with you you you already know I took all the science courses I could in high school and college and for a short time worked in a field that required a science background.

 

Here is a chance for you to expand you limited knowledge on the effects of solar activity on climate and weather.

 

Journal of Geophysical Research

Space Physics

 

Accepted manuscript online: 19 August 2016

 

This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review.

 

The response of clouds and aerosols to cosmic ray decreases

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JA022689/abstract

 

 

Four days ago in France.

 


Edited by Krentel, Aug 21 2016 - 19:39.


WulfeHound #87 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 19:42

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If the Earth is "cooling" as you claim, then explain why the past 15 months have been the hottest ever recorded, with July being the hottest out of those months?

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201607

 

 



Mudman24 #88 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 19:48

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I claimed a while back the Kentral derails every thread he enters,and was only partially being humorous.  I don't think the original article even mentioned climate.  It was mostly about war and the influence of democracy if I remember correctly.  Now it's a climate debate.

Klaatu_Nicto #89 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 19:50

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View PostWulfeHound, on Aug 21 2016 - 10:42, said:

If the Earth is "cooling" as you claim, then explain why the past 15 months have been the hottest ever recorded, with July being the hottest out of those months?

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201607

 

 

 

That was due to the natural warm phase of the cyclical Pacific ENSO which is driven my the wind.



Klaatu_Nicto #90 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 19:52

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View PostMudman24, on Aug 21 2016 - 10:48, said:

I claimed a while back the Kentral derails every thread he enters,and was only partially being humorous. I don't think the original article even mentioned climate. It was mostly about war and the influence of democracy if I remember correctly. Now it's a climate debate.

 

Global cooling with have a huge impact on how peaceful the world remains and the Pentagon realizes that.

WulfeHound #91 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 19:56

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View PostKrentel, on Aug 21 2016 - 13:50, said:

 

That was due to the natural warm phase of the cyclical Pacific ENSO which is driven my the wind.

 

Sure

CaptCaveman60 #92 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 19:59

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View Postmattwong, on Aug 16 2016 - 04:49, said:

 

You are clinging to that negativity like a drowning man holding onto a life preserver.

 

to deny the truth is no different than than spreading a false hope. that is until it reachs up and slaps you.

Klaatu_Nicto #93 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 20:05

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View PostWulfeHound, on Aug 21 2016 - 10:56, said:

 

Sure

 

 

Let me educate you on the Pacific ENSO.


 

Ocean temperatures are cooler along the U.S west coast than in the mid Pacific Ocean. Every few years the winds shift and push the warm mid ocean surface water towards the west coast. In this last super El Nino more warm water was pushed to the west coast resulting in a larger area of warm water compared to previous El Nino's. The Pacific ENSO has a large impact on climate and weather and not just in the U.S.  The super El Nino has ended and in a previous note here I posted a link to NOAA and their forecast of a -0.5 to -1.0 degree C drop in ocean temperature later this year.


 

What controls the winds? Conditions in the atmosphere.


 

What controls conditions in the atmosphere? Solar activity.

 

 

 

 


Edited by Krentel, Aug 21 2016 - 20:11.


WulfeHound #94 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 20:11

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And yet the oceans have been warming overall in the past 40+ years, with drastic temperature increases in the recent decade in the 0-2000m measurements

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/



Klaatu_Nicto #95 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 20:21

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View PostWulfeHound, on Aug 21 2016 - 11:11, said:

And yet the oceans have been warming overall in the past 40+ years, with drastic temperature increases in the recent decade in the 0-2000m measurements

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

 

The solar cycles are an 11 year cycle and we are currently in solar cycle 24 which began in around 2012-2103. Solar cycles 21, 22 and 23, which represent 33 years, were very active and considered a modern maximum. 2012 minus 33years = 1979 which is about the time the mid 1900's cooling ended and the most recent warming trend began.



WulfeHound #96 Posted Aug 21 2016 - 20:35

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The Sun is warming? That''s why it's been noted to have been cooling slightly for the past decade and a half, right? It's also been noted that the solar cycles haven't been enough to cause the increase in temperatures that have been recorded for the past century.

Klaatu_Nicto #97 Posted Aug 22 2016 - 00:14

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View PostWulfeHound, on Aug 21 2016 - 11:35, said:

The Sun is warming? That''s why it's been noted to have been cooling slightly for the past decade and a half, right? It's also been noted that the solar cycles haven't been enough to cause the increase in temperatures that have been recorded for the past century.

 

No, it's not about a warmer or cooler sun.  :D

 

When I say "solar activity" I'm referring to the solar wind and solar magnetic field, both of which effect the climate and weather on the planets in our solar system.

 

 



WulfeHound #98 Posted Aug 22 2016 - 00:17

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View PostKrentel, on Aug 21 2016 - 18:14, said:

 

No, it's not about a warmer or cooler sun.  :D

 

When I say "solar activity" I'm referring to the solar wind and solar magnetic field, both of which effect the climate and weather on the planets in our solar system.

 

 

 

That's what I was indirectly referring to, the solar cycle and sunspot activity

Donward #99 Posted Aug 22 2016 - 01:09

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The next shooting war will be about cultists in the Church of Global Warming declaring jihad on those who worship at the carbon fuel covered altar of No Man-made Climate Change...

 

:P


Edited by Donward, Aug 22 2016 - 01:09.


Klaatu_Nicto #100 Posted Aug 22 2016 - 03:58

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I believe when it comes to peace in the world the very strong likelihood that we are in the beginning stages of a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) needs to be taken seriously and plans made to prepare for it.  

 

Like I've pointed out a number of times on this forum much research and study into the earth's climate history provides a record which shows that the warming trend that began at the end of the Little Ice Age, 200 years go, up until modern day is not unusual or unprecedented like some would have you believe. In the past several thousand years, when average temps were as warm or warmer then today, mankind did well and in many areas flourished. It was during the colder periods caused by GSM's when mankind suffered greatly. 

 

Just as scientists can reconstruct earth's climate history they can also, through direct observation over the past several hundred years and other means such as ice core samples or tree rings, reconstruct solar activity in the past. The kind of solar activity we have seen over the past three or four years, since the beginning of current cycle 24, is unusual but has occurred in the past. The record shows that this kind of solar activity is the beginning of a GSM which in the past has led to decades or centuries of cooler temperatures and extreme weather.  

 

The last two GSM's occurred in the 1300's and the mid 1600 to 1700 periods. In the 1300's the GSM led to colder temps and extreme weather which did not end until the 1800's in the event referred to as The Little Ice Age. The Little Ice Age did not begin with a sudden drop in average temps. While there were some unusual cold events in the early years it was extreme rainfall and the flooding it caused that opened the early stages of the climate shift. 

 

The next GSM, which began in the mid 1600 to 1700 period, led to even cooler temps and the worst part of the Little Ice Age which included the "year without a summer.". This is the period known as the Maunder Minimum named after the husband/wife team who were making daily observations of solar activity. For the past several years we have seen the same, unusual solar activity the Maunders saw.

 

During the Little Ice Age millions of people died from the cold, starvation or disease which ran rampant because of the malnourished population and these were people who knew how to live off the land. Most of those who did survive did so hungry and miserable. Imagine spending your entire life hungry and miserable.  We are currently seeing the same kind of extreme weather and crop losses that they saw in the early stages of the Little Ice.  Over the past several months in some areas, all around the world. crops and livestock have been lost to unusual cold and rain events which not only effect the food supply, they also have a financial impact on the producers and those consumers who have access to the food produced from the surviving crops and livestock. 

 

Various means involving different solar related factors have been used by some researchers to reconstruct past solar activity and compare it to past climate and most of them point in one direction - we are in the beginning stages of a GSM and cooling.  Nobody can be absolute certain this is going to happen but it seems very likely it is happening.  If it does happen how long will it last and how severe it will be nobody can answer because that involves factors that we don't fully understand or may not know about.  A couple of factors are the oceanic cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic. What happens if the GSM begins when one or both oceans are in their multi-decade cool phase versus in their multi-decade warm phase? The authors of the research paper I posted here earlier believe the cooler climate will begin in 2017, will be multi-decadel and will really kick-in during the 2020's.  

 

How do you prepare for it if it becomes apparent we are entering a period of cooling? Unless you live in an area where you can live off the land and stay warm during the winter, which will depend on how far north you live in the Northern Hemisphere, you should think about it, especially about keeping warm. There are things that could be done and plans made by those in the agricultural industry and government in preparation for such an event should it happen in regards to food production so staying fed may not be a problem for those most of us. However, in a very worst case scenario, large numbers of desperate, hungry people will prey on those who have do food. plus a Pentagon Report raises the possibility that four nuclear armed nations, Russia-China-Pakistan-India, could go to war over access to resources. So much for a peaceful world under that scenario.

 

Staying warm is another thing and much easier to prepare for. During a GSM we would see more frequent and more intense cold weather events which will at times disrupt your access to electricity for prolonged periods of time so at the very least be prepared for that. In early January, 1997, in western Washington State we got hit with not only an unusual amount of snow, it was a heavy wet snow which left over half a million people without power in the most populated area of the state.  Power line crews from as far as Canada, southern California and the East Coast came to help. I in a city of 50,000 located right between and within a 20 minute drive of the largest and third largest cities in my state and it still took seven days before I got my power restored. I did not have a generator then and stores could not keep them in stock so for seven days, in temps in the low 30's and 20's F,  I was cold and unable to cook a warm meal. And, even if I did get a generator back then, none of the local gas stations had power either so no gas was available. I was lucky because some folks did not get their power restored for several weeks. I have a generator now and over 25 gallons of gas stored, which will keep me lit and above freezing for close to a week, which I rotate every couple of years into my Daewoo. What I would like to do is get a generator that runs on propane and have a large propane tank so I don't have to rotate or rely on the local gasoline supply in a prolonged power outage. 

 

Here is a visual example of what you can expect more of during a GSM.  I'm sure some of our Canadians here who lived in that area at that time remember it. 

 

 

Not trying to start fights or derail topics. Based on the evidence I have seen I truly believe mankind has not had a major part to play in the recent warming trend, that solar activity is a major factor in climate change and we are heading into a GSM. My agenda is providing information which supports my beliefs in order to make people take seriously my warning about what appears to be coming.  Let what I post be the spark that lights your interest and makes you do your own research which I think, if you do, will lead you to the same conclusion as mine.  Or, just ignore it and believe everything the mainstream media, government officials, those with a financial interest in mitigating global warming and environmental extremists tell you. The choice is yours but that choice could have a big impact on your life and the life of you family in the future so choose wisely. 

 

I've been reading and watching daily reports on solar activity for several years. You can do so too here.

 

http://spaceweather.com/

 

https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers/videos

 

I don' t know any of you very well but I still care about most of you. That's why I do stuff like this although there are a few of you, who if you fail to take my warning seriously and end up suffering because of it, is fine with me.  :)


Edited by Krentel, Aug 22 2016 - 04:08.





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