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Fifth Campaign Fame point cutoff estimate


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__Ice #1 Posted Nov 13 2016 - 21:08

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My estimate is 5093 for 3000 spot not 1500

 

So three days done cutoff at 481 x 3 = 1443 + 200 = 1643. I would say it is high but it accounts for all ten days. For tier 8 and ten 1643 x 3.1 = 5093.3

The reason for 3.1 you usually get a little more fame points for eight and tens battles.

 

Following the same math 1500 will be 11780



xrays_ #2 Posted Nov 13 2016 - 21:17

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Please explain your math. Also, isn't it a bit soon to be estimating this? Just play your tanks. Stop looking at your points/position after every battle.

 

x.



Bomber2994 #3 Posted Nov 13 2016 - 21:43

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View Postxrays_, on Nov 13 2016 - 15:17, said:

Please explain your math. Also, isn't it a bit soon to be estimating this? Just play your tanks. Stop looking at your points/position after every battle.

 

x.

 

Basically this ^

 

Hard to tell where the cutoff will be considering we are 3 days in. Tier 8 and 10 sections could see huge jumps in fame points for numerous reasons. I'd say around the start to mid point of the tier 10 section would allow a solid guess. Until then just keep showing up, playing battles, and winning to give yourself the best shot at a tank.



xtcmax #4 Posted Nov 13 2016 - 21:48

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just some kiddo poopin' diamonds already :)

mod101 #5 Posted Nov 13 2016 - 21:59

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Note that the first day is always inaccurate as there are no x5's battles there. Including it in your average makes the number much lower than it should be. Also one important thing to note is that predictions this early are NOT accurate so take this with a grain of salt.

 

Here's a view only copy of my current spreadsheet for calculations. If you're curious about the prediction find the last day played (e.g. Nov12th) and look at the blue boxes under that date for my estimations using several different calculations.
https://docs.google....#gid=1687402397

 

Currently my spreadsheet is reading 6,484 for Max increase in famepoints (207) applied for the rest of the campaign, which is actually pretty close to the last full campaign's cuff off of 6900ish. If you want more info about how each calculation was made it should all be in the boxes but feel free to ask questions as well.


Edited by mod101, Nov 13 2016 - 22:01.


Fulcrous #6 Posted Nov 13 2016 - 22:13

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These estimates are probably off. Usually FP gain escalates the higher tier it is.

IanSanJr #7 Posted Nov 14 2016 - 07:00

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View PostT3hIce, on Nov 14 2016 - 04:08, said:

My estimate is 5093 for 3000 spot not 1500

 

So three days done cutoff at 481 x 3 = 1443 + 200 = 1643. I would say it is high but it accounts for all ten days. For tier 8 and ten 1643 x 3.1 = 5093.3

The reason for 3.1 you usually get a little more fame points for eight and tens battles.

 

Following the same math 1500 will be 11780

 

not really 11780

there would be twice higher than last CW 4th.

 

5th campaign is different.



porkchop39 #8 Posted Nov 14 2016 - 18:15

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Pretty sure last campaign I participated in the fame point cutoff was around 22 or 2300.

 

Edit...I'm referring to rank, not accrued points.


Edited by porkchop39, Nov 14 2016 - 19:58.


Mr_3Razer #9 Posted Nov 14 2016 - 18:29

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View PostT3hIce, on Nov 13 2016 - 14:08, said:

My estimate is 5093 for 3000 spot not 1500

 

So three days done cutoff at 481 x 3 = 1443 + 200 = 1643. I would say it is high but it accounts for all ten days. For tier 8 and ten 1643 x 3.1 = 5093.3

The reason for 3.1 you usually get a little more fame points for eight and tens battles.

 

Following the same math 1500 will be 11780

 

Here you go! too many useless math

benerdeath #10 Posted Nov 18 2016 - 16:37

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4 battles an hour * 4 hours a day = 16 battles a day.

First stage 16 battles * 8 days = 128 battles

100 point for each win * 128 battles = 12800 points

The whole campaign.

16 battles * 26 days = 416 battles during the whole campaign

100 point for each win * 416 battles = 41600 points

 

I know that there are some battles that you lose and there are 5x battles. But i gather they would cancel each other out.

40000 point should guarantee top 1500 finish.

 

Today first stage of campaign is finished.  The cutoff point is 3456 points.

 

As you can see it is little below one fourth of my initial estimate. 12800/3456 = 3.7

 

So 41600 / 3.7 = 11243 points.

 

It is highly likely that that there are a lot of people within the first 1500 people that belong to the top clan. So they will get the tank from the clan.

 

I tried to use simple maths for this. No blame should be placed on me. Take this with pinch of salt.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Edited by benerdeath, Nov 18 2016 - 16:59.


May0 #11 Posted Nov 20 2016 - 01:24

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Certain clans excel at 6, while others do better at 8's and 10's respectively. Expect a few clans to fall apart once they get to tiers 8 and 10 when strategies requires more complexity than "everyone group up and flank their weak side with fast moving tanks" which is about 90% of the tier 6 meta from what I've seen.

 

Either by lack of (skilled)players, tanks or expertise in the aforementioned tiers of 8 and 10 there's going to be a lot of salty clans in the next few weeks. Supposedly my guys aren't the best at tier 6 and are better at tiers 8 and 10 which good since we're not doing too bad at tier 6.  



Frizzled07 #12 Posted Nov 22 2016 - 06:43

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since tier 8 battles are making the same as tier 6 battles... lets assume tier 10s make the same as well...

 

what would the cuttoff be in that situation?



____Vortex____ #13 Posted Nov 22 2016 - 17:06

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View PostFrizzled07, on Nov 21 2016 - 22:43, said:

since tier 8 battles are making the same as tier 6 battles... lets assume tier 10s make the same as well...

 

what would the cuttoff be in that situation?

 

5172.

 

After 10 nights of play, it's at 2155 for the cutoff spot.

 

 

*Assumptions

1. 24 total nights of play (8 days per tier)

2. WG cryptic message of map frozen 24-25 actually only means the 24th and not both nights.  Why is it so hard for them to put up a schedule that isn't cryptic?

3. The total will be higher, there is always a mad dash those last few nights and top clans giving out fame licenses to players not already in the top 3k.



FASTHatTrick #14 Posted Nov 23 2016 - 07:32

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How many Clan Licenses are estimated to be ranked outside the top 3000?  Right now 943 licenses out there out of a potential 1500.  At least a small % of those clan members wont get their minimum 15 games played, perma AFK and no one has their info.

 

I am assuming the Clan Tools keeps this in their calculations and that is why the # doesn't sit evenly on position 3000?  78 battles and 2770 points so far as of tonight with a ranking of 2596 (we still haven't won a landing yet nor fought a land owner).  So as long as I keep pace I should be good????



Frizzled07 #15 Posted Nov 23 2016 - 07:47

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View PostFASTHatTrick, on Nov 23 2016 - 01:32, said:

How many Clan Licenses are estimated to be ranked outside the top 3000?  Right now 943 licenses out there out of a potential 1500.  At least a small % of those clan members wont get their minimum 15 games played, perma AFK and no one has their info.

 

I am assuming the Clan Tools keeps this in their calculations and that is why the # doesn't sit evenly on position 3000?  78 battles and 2770 points so far as of tonight with a ranking of 2596 (we still haven't won a landing yet nor fought a land owner).  So as long as I keep pace I should be good????

 

They are giving away 3k tanks... the top 15 clans get 100 licenses... the players in those clans who have 15 battles get a tank... 1500 players get a tank based on fame points. The unused clan licenses go to the next highest fame ranked players. I guess some people might get clan tanks that are outside the top 3k, but I wouldn't think many... may 100-150 or so

mod101 #16 Posted Nov 23 2016 - 08:39

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View PostFrizzled07, on Nov 23 2016 - 06:47, said:

 

They are giving away 3k tanks... the top 15 clans get 100 licenses... the players in those clans who have 15 battles get a tank... 1500 players get a tank based on fame points. The unused clan licenses go to the next highest fame ranked players. I guess some people might get clan tanks that are outside the top 3k, but I wouldn't think many... may 100-150 or so

 

Last full campaign in January had the cutoff around rank 2500 hundred. I would anticipate something similar for this campaign.

 

In terms of estimates, my estimate just shot up a BUNCH because wargaming revised the schedule again (heads up for those who havent seen it yet. go check the pinned post in this section for the updated schedule.) Currently my spreadsheet is reading 8600 as the predicted fame point cut off by the current numbers but of course it gets more competitive so I am looking at around 10,500 as the current safe zone.



NeZiak #17 Posted Nov 23 2016 - 15:50

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View PostNeuralgia, on Nov 22 2016 - 16:06, said:

 

5172.

 

After 10 nights of play, it's at 2155 for the cutoff spot.

 

 

*Assumptions

1. 24 total nights of play (8 days per tier)

2. WG cryptic message of map frozen 24-25 actually only means the 24th and not both nights.  Why is it so hard for them to put up a schedule that isn't cryptic?

3. The total will be higher, there is always a mad dash those last few nights and top clans giving out fame licenses to players not already in the top 3k.

http://forum.worldof...final-schedule/



FunkeeJunk #18 Posted Nov 23 2016 - 15:53

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View PostFrizzled07, on Nov 23 2016 - 07:47, said:

 

They are giving away 3k tanks... the top 15 clans get 100 licenses... the players in those clans who have 15 battles get a tank... 1500 players get a tank based on fame points. The unused clan licenses go to the next highest fame ranked players. I guess some people might get clan tanks that are outside the top 3k, but I wouldn't think many... may 100-150 or so

 

It will be more than 150, it's 197 right now and that will only get higher.  They'll put every alt and friend they have in their clans and get them 15 battles.


Edited by FunkeeJunk, Nov 23 2016 - 16:08.


NeZiak #19 Posted Nov 23 2016 - 16:10

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View PostFunkeeJunk, on Nov 23 2016 - 14:53, said:

 

It will be more than 150, it's 197 right now and that will only get higher.  They'll put every alt and friend they have in their clans and get them 15 battles.

 

Top 15 clans get a license for reward tank. Among the top 15 clans, members that have personnel fame, top 1500, there license will go to members in the wild card system. After the tanks are distributed to all players who are eligible via clan license and personnel fame, the remaining licenses go to players below 1500 fame points until all 3k licenses are used. 

Cheekyman #20 Posted Nov 23 2016 - 16:17

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View PostFrizzled07, on Nov 23 2016 - 06:47, said:

 

They are giving away 3k tanks... the top 15 clans get 100 licenses... the players in those clans who have 15 battles get a tank... 1500 players get a tank based on fame points. The unused clan licenses go to the next highest fame ranked players. I guess some people might get clan tanks that are outside the top 3k, but I wouldn't think many... may 100-150 or so

 

Well, at least its nice to know that my unused license will go towards a guy that put the time in but could not have a license, like 'hey dude I did you a solid' kinda thing. Be nice to know who it goes to.




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