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Its not about skill, but luck!

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BasilBarfly01 #21 Posted Sep 13 2017 - 05:04

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Ok, my final thought on this topic.  If all the players who tell us how to play are so good and there is nothing wrong with the game mechanics, nor is there anything wrong with match making, then how come there are no players with over 75% win ratio?

 

Basil



ff8ff8 #22 Posted Sep 13 2017 - 06:46

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View PostBasilBarfly01, on Sep 12 2017 - 20:04, said:

Ok, my final thought on this topic.  If all the players who tell us how to play are so good and there is nothing wrong with the game mechanics, nor is there anything wrong with match making, then how come there are no players with over 75% win ratio?

 

Basil

 

...there are

Doomslinger #23 Posted Sep 13 2017 - 07:07

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View PostBasilBarfly01, on Sep 13 2017 - 00:04, said:

Ok, my final thought on this topic.  If all the players who tell us how to play are so good and there is nothing wrong with the game mechanics, nor is there anything wrong with match making, then how come there are no players with over 75% win ratio?

 

Basil

 

Here are over 40 players with over 75% w/r with over 1000 battles played:

Noobmeter



Chalybos #24 Posted Sep 13 2017 - 17:28

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Here's the thing about claims of luck: what makes them special and you jinxed?  All things being equal, the only variable is the person at the keyboard.  Unless they paid extra for WoTXTRAluckypackage.exe from the premium store.

 

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.  



platoscum #25 Posted Oct 02 2017 - 20:30

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Do you think Poker is all luck?  If you do, you're a damn fool.  In games with random variables,  the randomness evens out over iterations.  Also, it's ridiculous all the [edited]people make about tiers.  When you're a tier IV,  in a game with tier VI tanks,  the OTHER SIDE ALSO HAS TIER IV TANKS!!  Every disadvantage you can think of is usually mirrored on the other side.  If not this game, then the next.  Does anyone ever complain when their team gets an unfair advantage?  Losing streaks happen.  It's the nature of probability.  You're not gonna win then lose then win then lose.  There are going to be long streaks when you feel the game is unfair in some way because you couldn't possibly be THIS BAD.  Well,  you CAN improve your winrate if you want to...  It takes research and reflection on what you might do differently,  and just plain grinding crew skills.  The players who continually [edited]about how unfair rng is or unfairness of the game have a psychological issue to overcome, plain and simple.  Stop [edited]about unfairness in game and in life and you will be a force to be reckoned with.

taugrim #26 Posted Oct 02 2017 - 22:37

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View PostBasilBarfly01, on Mar 03 2017 - 01:35, said:

I have only been playing for a few months on the USA(East) and Asia servers and I have come to the conclusion that this game is 10% skill and 90% luck.

 

Now I know you are going to look at my stats and say I am a bad player.  I counter that I am an unlucky player.  If luck had nothing to do with it, then why are there not many people with over 60% score?  Because if you get to good at the game and you are becoming skillful at it, the game puts you in with a bunch of thumb sucking, crayon eating, helmet wearing, screen licking, glue sniffing nerf herding tomatoes who couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat.

 

Let me first say I'm not posting to be mean to you, but this whole premise is ridiculous.

 

Yes, WoT has a high degree of RNG. However, WoT also has an extremely high skill cap and mistakes are punished severely, as is inaction, poor decision-making, lack of awareness, and lack of knowledge of game mechanics.

 

 

You have played over a hundred different tanks, and you fail to contribute to your team in your average battle in any meaningful way, based on my glancing at your 30 most-played tanks.

So why is it you think you're unlucky and not bad?


You are failing to recognize your incompetence, and hence blaming it on bad luck, because you simply do not understand what skill is in this game. It's called the "Dunning Kruger" effect.

In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias wherein people of low ability suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their cognitive ability as greater than it is. The cognitive bias of illusory superiority derives from the metacognitiveinability of low-ability persons to recognize their own ineptitude.

 

You will not reach even average performance until you are wiling to be reflective and meaningfully consider how you can improve your skill level. This is the same for any domain, not just a game like WoT.

 

Again, I don't say this to be mean to you - I've spent literally hundreds of hours publishing guides on WoT to help players. My desire is to help people. And that starts with cutting through sillyness like your whole premise.

 

Think of it this way - you're consistently in the bottom 20% in terms of statistical performance for any given tank in your garage, across many dozens of tanks. Which is the more rational explanation:

1. I'm unlucky

2. I'm bad


Edited by taugrim, Oct 02 2017 - 22:47.


taugrim #27 Posted Oct 02 2017 - 22:43

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View PostColinB, on Mar 16 2017 - 19:30, said:

Hi Basil.

I understand what you mean. I'm a bad player who wants to do better. Sometimes there doesn't seem to be a single thing you can do. It is a very bad feeling when you think that you can and should do better, but nothing works.


 

There is some luck involved, but in my newbie view, how you perform is up to your choices in the game. Watching the map, deciding how hard to push (or not), where to go, whom to support. If you always go to B3 to spot, no matter what is happening on the map, and in every tank you own, you won't get a good result very often.

 

You may be bad, but you are miles ahead in terms of self-awareness relative to Basil, and that self-awareness is the first step in becoming a better player.



_Tsavo_ #28 Posted Oct 02 2017 - 22:46

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View Posttaugrim, on Oct 02 2017 - 16:43, said:

 

You may be bad, but you are miles ahead in terms of self-awareness relative to Basil, and that self-awareness is the first step in becoming a better player.

 

Listen to this feller, he's a good one.



Messerschmitt_Masser #29 Posted May 27 2018 - 20:29

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dont say RNG exists in this game, no, no.
Or unicums gonna come to tell to you that you are a noob because "you don't know your tenk" and RNG doesnt play any role in this game...

Maybe I am a noob yes, but saying that games are controlled purely by skill instead of luck, its plain ridiculous. Its  a 20%-80% for me, 20% skill, 80% luck.

I want to see replays of those who says "you are a looser if you think you can't influence a game if your team is full of potatoes" doing actually that...

taugrim #30 Posted Jul 04 2018 - 08:12

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View PostMesserschmitt_Masser, on May 27 2018 - 19:29, said:

dont say RNG exists in this game, no, no.
Or unicums gonna come to tell to you that you are a noob because "you don't know your tenk" and RNG doesnt play any role in this game...

Maybe I am a noob yes, but saying that games are controlled purely by skill instead of luck, its plain ridiculous. Its a 20%-80% for me, 20% skill, 80% luck.

I want to see replays of those who says "you are a looser if you think you can't influence a game if your team is full of potatoes" doing actually that...

 

RNG exists in this game, and it's significant, at least compared to other PVP games. I've never heard anyone say RNG doesn't exist. Literally no one.

 

If you believe this game is 20% skill, 80% luck, it shows how shallow your understanding of the game is.


Consider for example light tanks, which as a class are widely-regarded as having the highest skill cap in the game. You have played dozens and dozens of light tanks, but in none of them are you a Unicum (2450+ WN8):

http://www.wotstats....schmitt_Masser/

 

Zero out of dozens. Is that luck to you? I was surprised you weren't Unicum in at least a few tanks with small sample sizes. But upon reflecting upon your stats, there's a consistent theme: you struggle to contribute in them.

 

To give you a comparison, I have played dozens of light tanks from tiers 5-10 and in all of them but one I have a Super Unicum WN8 (2900+), and the one that isn't Super Unicum currently is still Unicum (Rhm Pzw @ 2.7K WN8):

http://www.wotstats....tats/na/taugrim

 

Do you still want to argue that this is luck based?

That somehow you had bad luck for all your dozens of lights tanks, and I somehow had good luck for dozens of tanks over thousands of battles?

 

That fails any kind of common sense.

 

This is a high skill cap game. It's highly complex. It requires tank knowledge, mechanics knowledge, map knowledge, an ability to multi-task (drive tank while reading the map), and good decision making.


Is there RNG? Of course there is: the aiming reticle is large compared to other games, there is +/- 25% penetration, and +/- 25% damage.


But to claim the game is 20% skill and 80% luck is simply stupid. Over any meaningful sample size, there would be reversion to the mean.


Edited by taugrim, Jul 04 2018 - 08:14.


StrachwitzPzGraf #31 Posted Jul 04 2018 - 12:46

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You all argue this as if there's only one answer, either:

1. It is luck that determines things or

2. It is skill that determines things

 

The arguments here seem to run to extremes -- "Show me the 75% players if it is skill" or "you need to get good to get that higher rating, only losers claim luck enters into it"... and similar.

 

For me the truth is LUCK does play a factor(which is so obvious I don't know why it even gets debated) AND your skill and playing smart makes a difference (which is so obvious I don't know why it even gets debated).

 

35K games in my WR (which includes all those early learning curve games) is only 49.05%,at what point after playing "long term" does it get closer to 50%?  What the hell in long term?  I think it peaked out a few months back at 49.31%... since then I've consistently had mostly very poor daily results and the subsequent loss of WR%.  So, why is that, what's caused the fall?  Did my skills suddenly dropped off?  Well no, my average XP and HP delivered are still going up.... Hum... what other factor then?  Ah, team composition -- and yeah, I look at the balance of WN8 between the formed teams.  I tracked it for about 500+ games in Excel.  Found that I was on the projected losing side 43% of the time.  That statistic alone was an 85% accurate predictor of the outcome.  I put WN8s of 49%-51% into the coin flip category and did not count W/L from those (and they did in fact come out at 50-50 win/loss as expected).  So, 48% or less of the WN8xp -- expected loss 85% of the time regardless of personal skill/effort.  With a 52% WN8 advantage ditto -- high chance of win regardless of personal result.

 

To me this suggests strongly that the team composition is a key factor (85% of the time) in determining the outcome of the game -- again, regardless of your personal skill and/or contributions.  I had one stretch of 14 game where I simply stank up the place. I mean almost all those games I played really poorly.  Guess what, we won 12 of them.  In other stretches I played over my head. Battle WN8 of 2.5-4K., so much better than my 980 average... and we lost anyway.

 

So please (George) don't call every aspect of the game skill based and berate those who point out the luck factors as losers.  And those of you who argue that it is all luck -- ditto -- you can influence the result with smarter play and "gittin' good", so stop whining about it's all luck.

 

I have in multiple posts argued that a simple "fix" to some of this argument is to swap a couple players between teams after they are formed to balance relative WN8 "skill"-- you would never know you'd been swapped, those using XVM would always be seeing a 49-51% balance between teams (eliminating that argument), outcome could not then be attributed to great/crappy teams, and it would at least give more credence to the notion that your personal contribution was meaningful.

 

WG could insert this code and no one would ever know, but doing so would eliminate the "Shtty" team argument from these boards... and that would be nice.



anonym_xZVHqpeTymPe #32 Posted Jul 08 2018 - 19:10

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View PostBasilBarfly01, on Sep 13 2017 - 05:04, said:

Ok, my final thought on this topic.  If all the players who tell us how to play are so good and there is nothing wrong with the game mechanics, nor is there anything wrong with match making, then how come there are no players with over 75% win ratio?

 

Basil

 

Play another 40k games. READ, watch replays, critique your gameplay accurately. Get to unicum stats for most recent 10k games and deep blue overall (nearly purple) and then watch how RNG/Luck will split your hairs.

anonym_xZVHqpeTymPe #33 Posted Jul 08 2018 - 19:15

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View PostMesserschmitt_Masser, on May 27 2018 - 20:29,


I want to see replays of those who says "you are a looser if you think you can't influence a game if your team is full of potatoes" doing actually that...

 

There is a whole lot of reading material available about how to manage poor teams on another "website." Caution: this unsaid website is used by masters only. Don't go seeking the great knowledge - I've heard you could explode upon attaining it.







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