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Does Win Rate measure your ability?


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da_Rock002 #1 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 02:29

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From the beginning players look at WR to see how they're doing.   It's a waste of time.   Want proof? 

The attached is an output WoTLabs will cheerfully produce for WoT players.   The one below shows my WinRate from day one of my membership through my 5 month anniversary.   


 

It shows that somehow I started out with a WinRate around 51.5%.    Gee, I caught on fast.   The Win Rate chart is the upper left one below.   I highlighted the 3 month period from battle #1640 till now on all 4 charts.    The lower left chart is a plot of the Average Damage and lower right a plot of the Average Experience as I've been learning the game.     FWIW, the upper right is WN8 tracking of whatever WN8 measures.   I've been pleased all along how 3 of those measures have shown a steady increase that basically never really declined.   And was glad WoTLabs does that display for us.


 

(BTW, if you notice the flat line start those worthwhile 3 charts show, you see what happens if you spend your first 1000 battles trying to learn how to "scout" in a Light tank.   It's not a good thing to do in this game.  WoT wants you to DMG and lower tiers and Light tanks aren't able to produce 'adequately'.)


 

Anyway, back to WR and it's miserable failure as a measure of your ability/skill/understanding of the game.   During the three months of steady improvements clearly measured and charted by WotLabs, what did WR show?    Well, I lived those highlighted 3 months, and I'm here to testify that WR did an excellent job tracking the results of the teams MM put me in against the teams MM gave us to fight. 


 

My performance is clearly improving every day of those 3 months.   Have you been told your WR is a result of your contribution and you're obviously not contributing, that you should get guud, that getting better is how you improve your WR.  You have heard your WR is 'your fault' right?   That WR trace proves WR isn't following my contribution anywhere near as close as it's showing my "luck" with MM.    And there isn't any "random" showing on that MM trace except when the WR settled in at 47.6% for awhile. 


 

However, if you really need to believe WR is a measure of your performance, don't let this one example dilute your faith.   But it's fairly good proof that sometimes (like 3 months worth of 'sometime;) WR isn't really fast at showing how YOU are doing.   But it's a real good measure of how random your MM was. 


 

   


 


 



tanopasman62 #2 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 02:38

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Unless you're driving a WT E 100 against tier 4s, which I don't think you do, WR will always depend of 15 people, so its not a really good indicator of how "good" you are.



Boolabc123 #3 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 02:40

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WR would only be relevant if WG added 1v1 gamemodes..

Marauder1981 #4 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 02:41

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you guys....it's called SMALL SAMPLE SIZE.  over 15 battles, yeah, your winrate is largely (like 100%)  not your fault....but after 30,000 battles?  yeah, it's pretty much got your skill level figured out.

blackzaru #5 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 02:42

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Well, sorry to tell you this, but, given your number of battles, the stats you showed mean nothing.

Why? Low number of battles (2000), means you are climbing up tiers.

What does that mean?

  1. WN8 has a negative factor for lower tiers (to prevent seal-clubbing inflation). Thus, has you climb in tiers, even if you play the same, your WN8 will increase.
  2. As you climb up tiers, so will your average damage, as all tanks now have more and more hp.
  3. As all tanks have more and more hp, you average damage will increase, and so will your average experience.

 

IE: yes, it shows your ability, as it is the only stat in there not affected by what tier you are playing, nor the fact that you are slowly increasing in tiers.



theandman012 #6 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 02:42

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To me, it looks like your playing for damage instead of the win which doesn't always coincide with one another. I may not be a unicum but I know my way around this game to know that you should focus on staying alive longer (which leads to more damage) and damaging top tiers or threats instead of seal club the lower tanks that don't have allot of influence. For instance, if there is a 2 shot E-75 and a 4 shot T32 instead of going for more damage first I will take out the deadliest threat to my team (E-75)

Mudman24 #7 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 02:49

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I thought winning was the main objective to the game. I guess people that do more damage, spotting, defending, etc, just win more by accident, it couldn't have anything to do with skill.

Druyd #8 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 02:59

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Sure, you're improving, but being at 300 wn8 and dealing 460 damage is nothing near enough to be pulling 50% win rates at tier 5-6. It might be decent enough at tiers 2/3 and maybe even 4 to be hitting close to 50%, but tier 5+, no. If anything, your winrate is higher than what it should be. Also, small sample size. 



ArmorStorm #9 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 02:59

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View Postda_Rock002, on Apr 25 2017 - 19:29, said:

From the beginning players look at WR to see how they're doing.   It's a waste of time.   Want proof? 

The attached is an output WoTLabs will cheerfully produce for WoT players.   The one below shows my WinRate from day one of my membership through my 5 month anniversary.   


 

It shows that somehow I started out with a WinRate around 51.5%.    Gee, I caught on fast.   The Win Rate chart is the upper left one below.   I highlighted the 3 month period from battle #1640 till now on all 4 charts.    The lower left chart is a plot of the Average Damage and lower right a plot of the Average Experience as I've been learning the game.     FWIW, the upper right is WN8 tracking of whatever WN8 measures.   I've been pleased all along how 3 of those measures have shown a steady increase that basically never really declined.   And was glad WoTLabs does that display for us.


 

(BTW, if you notice the flat line start those worthwhile 3 charts show, you see what happens if you spend your first 1000 battles trying to learn how to "scout" in a Light tank.   It's not a good thing to do in this game.  WoT wants you to DMG and lower tiers and Light tanks aren't able to produce 'adequately'.)


 

Anyway, back to WR and it's miserable failure as a measure of your ability/skill/understanding of the game.   During the three months of steady improvements clearly measured and charted by WotLabs, what did WR show?    Well, I lived those highlighted 3 months, and I'm here to testify that WR did an excellent job tracking the results of the teams MM put me in against the teams MM gave us to fight. 


 

My performance is clearly improving every day of those 3 months.   Have you been told your WR is a result of your contribution and you're obviously not contributing, that you should get guud, that getting better is how you improve your WR.  You have heard your WR is 'your fault' right?   That WR trace proves WR isn't following my contribution anywhere near as close as it's showing my "luck" with MM.    And there isn't any "random" showing on that MM trace except when the WR settled in at 47.6% for awhile. 


 

However, if you really need to believe WR is a measure of your performance, don't let this one example dilute your faith.   But it's fairly good proof that sometimes (like 3 months worth of 'sometime;) WR isn't really fast at showing how YOU are doing.   But it's a real good measure of how random your MM was. 


 

   


 


 

 

It is a FACT that over several thousand battles Win Rate reflects your ability to influence a battle in your favor.  It does NOT mean that you will win 5 out of every 10 with a 50% win rate, it means that YOUR contribution is enough to raise the win rate above the 48% average (50%-2% draws).  You are improving, but at your level of experience you simply do not influence the battle in a positive way.  You have to be consistently pulling down a WN8 of over 900 to have a positive factor in your win rate.

 

Also, at 2700 battles there is nothing for you to see in performance charts.  Most guys don't mature as players until around the 10k mark, some are quicker to learn than others (some never get very good, like me) just relax on the stats, learn the game and the tanks, get some higher tier vehicles and most importantly HAVE FUN.  The wins will come.  

 

 



Cutthroatlemur #10 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 03:04

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Your performance is the only constant in this game and win rate is a direct reflection of your contribution.  OP is new to the game and so can be excused for not understanding this fact.  Win rate is a completely valid metric for evaluating performance, the only caveat that needs to be considered is whether the player platoons often - as this will affect win rate.

_Tsavo_ #11 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 03:08

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View PostCutthroatlemur, on Apr 25 2017 - 21:04, said:

Your performance is the only constant in this game and win rate is a direct reflection of your contribution.  OP is new to the game and so can be excused for not understanding this fact.  Win rate is a completely valid metric for evaluating performance, the only caveat that needs to be considered is whether the player platoons often - as this will affect win rate.

 

That last bit is important!

 

While win rate can vary wildly over a short period, the better you perform, the more consistent your win rate will be as time goes on.  I've lost 11+ games in a row and have had 19 wins in a row at one point.  Short term can be very random, but as you get thousands of games, those sporadic samples start to even out and have less impact on the overall picture.

 

 

Platoons, however, can act as a HUGE boost to win rate.  Take me, when I solo random tanks, I'm good for a about a 56-7% win rate.  When I solo tanks I enjoy or have figured out, I can pull a 58-60+% depending on the tank.  However, when I'm running with friends in a platoon, even with varying skill levels, that win rate jumps into the mid to low 60s pretty consistently.  On good runs, I can get into the higher 60s.  When I'm platooned with some of the super good players on my friends list, the win rates can get into the 70s.

 

An example of a mostly solo tank, my T23E3, has a 61% win rate.

 

My Leo, the tier 7 Swede tank, has a 60% win rate being a solo grind.

 

Another tank I almost always play alone is the Comet, with a 59% win rate.

 

The Centurion 1, a mostly solo tank, has a 56% win rate.  My 7/1 was mostly solo and had a 56% before I started platooning with it, it's now close to 58%.

On the flip side with platooning... :

 

My M46 Patton, however, is almost always in a platoon, and it has a 72% win rate.

 

My Skoda T50 is also a platooned tank, and it has a win rate of 72% as well.

 

The Type T-34 a heavily platooned tank has a 70% win rate.

 

My Cromwell B also has a 69% win rate, with a fair share being platooned.

 

Platoons can have a very large impact on how often you win.



Cutthroatlemur #12 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 03:12

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View Post_Tsavo, on Apr 25 2017 - 18:08, said:

 

That last bit is important!

 

While win rate can vary wildly over a short period, the better you perform, the more consistent your win rate will be as time goes on.  

 

 

Platoons, however, can act as a HUGE boost to win rate.  Take me, when I solo random tanks, I'm good for a about a 56-7% win rate.  When I solo tanks I enjoy or have figured out, I can pull a 58-60+% depending on the tank.  However, when I'm running with friends in a platoon, even with varying skill levels, that win rate jumps into the mid to low 60s pretty consistently.  On good runs, I can get into the higher 60s.  When I'm platooned with some of the super good players on my friends list, the win rates can get into the 70s.

 

yep!  Exactly.  Personally I never platoon (excepting dynamic platoons which don't count) and my much poorer WR reflects that fact.  

_Tsavo_ #13 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 03:17

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View PostCutthroatlemur, on Apr 25 2017 - 21:12, said:

 

yep!  Exactly.  Personally I never platoon (excepting dynamic platoons which don't count) and my much poorer WR reflects that fact.  

 

Exactly, and that's fine!

 

So, OP, be a solo player, be a platooning player, do whatever you wish!  Have fun with friends, or have the game be a chill out zone where it's just you and a bunch of exploding enemy tanks (hopefully) and don't fret it.

 

You're still learning and the win rate will go up and down during this time.  That is completely normal.  

 

 

On a note about your own personal win rate, the damage and wn8 numbers are on the lower end and the win rate is starting to normalize with that.  Focus on the wins, not the other stats.  With wins, those other stats will start to correct themselves.

 

Also, don't be afraid to platoon and don't be afraid to run solo.  It's your experience with the game and you should go about it however you see fit.  

 

If you want some help, please shoot me a message in game, I'll be happy to help where I can.  Mr Cutthroat also knows a thing or five about the game and would probably happily offer advice and wisdom, too.  


Edited by _Tsavo, Apr 26 2017 - 03:27.


gpc_4 #14 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 03:18

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Yes, you're clearly on your way to 45%er territory...uh, congrats. 

Gtraxeman #15 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 03:30

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Winrate does show how you can influence a battle. Its pretty much a given, that average win rate is 48%. If you can manage over 50% over a large amount of battles, you are influencing battles. Winrate will fluctuate due to MM and RNG variables, but being "skilled" will help overcome those variables. I am a decent player, maybe above average, look at my graph, and you will see what others have also explained.

MasterMellow #16 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 03:30

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View Postda_Rock002, on Apr 25 2017 - 20:29, said:

 


 

   


 


 

Your WN 8 shows that you average only about 2-3 shots of damage a game, from that I would guess you would be winning about 47% or so of your games. I can only assume that your 1st run of games with good win rates early on were only good luck and likely had little to do with how you played. As you improve you will see your win rate improve, but try not to worry too much about it or you will will go crazy.


Edited by MasterMellow, Apr 26 2017 - 03:31.


OldFrog75 #17 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 04:22

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One of the problems with Win Rate is that it's a rolling average with a lot of lag.  There is so much historical data built into the "current" number that it takes a whole lot of battles to reverse or even affect a trend. 

 

You had a Win Rate of 51.5% after 850 battles but it dropped to 47.5% one thousand battles latter.  I think that means your Win Rate for those 1000 battles was something like 42%.  I'm guessing it will take you several thousand battles with a Win Rate of 55% or higher to get you back to your 51.5%, but all along the way you will be performing better than the Win Rate says you are.

 

I have the same problem.  I'm winning a higher percentage of battles but my Win Rate doesn't reflect the progress in any meaningful way in the short term.  I think that's one of the things that makes WotLabs.net valuable - it shows your stats over different time frames.

 

As others have suggested, once you have enough battles the average will smooth out and it will be really difficult to change it one way or the other.  Don't know what that number is - could be 5000, 10000, or 20000 battles - but at that point you probably are what the Win Rate says you are.



TLWiz #18 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 04:31

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I play for fun.  I enjoy playing. I do what I can(as a certainly non-pro player) to help win and I greatly prefer winning.  But the bottom line is fun.  I enjoy the good games but I am keeping my day job. I hope (and try) to get my WR back above 50% but it is what it is. I am seldom the worst player on my team and sometimes I am up at the top of the list. (the converse happens too...)

 

OP, you seem to be quite into the game.  You'll be fine.  Keep playing and shooting those darn reds.


Edited by TLWiz, Apr 26 2017 - 04:32.


Tazilon #19 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 05:10

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View Postda_Rock002, on Apr 25 2017 - 19:29, said:

From the beginning players look at WR to see how they're doing.   It's a waste of time.   Want proof? 

The attached is an output WoTLabs will cheerfully produce for WoT players.   The one below shows my WinRate from day one of my membership through my 5 month anniversary.   


 

It shows that somehow I started out with a WinRate around 51.5%.    Gee, I caught on fast.   The Win Rate chart is the upper left one below.   I highlighted the 3 month period from battle #1640 till now on all 4 charts.    The lower left chart is a plot of the Average Damage and lower right a plot of the Average Experience as I've been learning the game.     FWIW, the upper right is WN8 tracking of whatever WN8 measures.   I've been pleased all along how 3 of those measures have shown a steady increase that basically never really declined.   And was glad WoTLabs does that display for us.


 

(BTW, if you notice the flat line start those worthwhile 3 charts show, you see what happens if you spend your first 1000 battles trying to learn how to "scout" in a Light tank.   It's not a good thing to do in this game.  WoT wants you to DMG and lower tiers and Light tanks aren't able to produce 'adequately'.)


 

Anyway, back to WR and it's miserable failure as a measure of your ability/skill/understanding of the game.   During the three months of steady improvements clearly measured and charted by WotLabs, what did WR show?    Well, I lived those highlighted 3 months, and I'm here to testify that WR did an excellent job tracking the results of the teams MM put me in against the teams MM gave us to fight. 


 

My performance is clearly improving every day of those 3 months.   Have you been told your WR is a result of your contribution and you're obviously not contributing, that you should get guud, that getting better is how you improve your WR.  You have heard your WR is 'your fault' right?   That WR trace proves WR isn't following my contribution anywhere near as close as it's showing my "luck" with MM.    And there isn't any "random" showing on that MM trace except when the WR settled in at 47.6% for awhile. 


 

However, if you really need to believe WR is a measure of your performance, don't let this one example dilute your faith.   But it's fairly good proof that sometimes (like 3 months worth of 'sometime;) WR isn't really fast at showing how YOU are doing.   But it's a real good measure of how random your MM was. 


 

   


 


 

 

Win Rate is more accurate than WNx, that is for sure.

da_Rock002 #20 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 12:13

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Block Quote

I used to think this was a game of skill, and maybe in some ways it is, I have 41 k battles and have not improved above 50.9%, in fact, any time I get close to that percentage, my losing spiral peaks, I start getting put on teams where there is no chance of winning, no matter what your skill level. The game is designed to keep a certain percentage of players at around the 50% mark. I don't know the criteria that is required to go above it, but once you make it above 51%, your account is flagged and you start getting on teams where everyone is at or above that mark, which means it will be easier to maintain that level. The game is about money, yes its free to play, but that is what sucks you into paying. Apparently I haven't paid enough because my account is flagged to keep me at this level. I gave up worrying bout WR, now just accept what ever dismal xp I can get from one losing game after another. It isn't that I don't know how to win, its that the game decides which side is going to win before the match even starts, then sets in motion the RNG to facilitate that outcome. Play for free, but you won't get above a certain level unless you use cheat mods and aimbots,  or you know how to get around their programming holes. Yes, I am cynical, didn't used to be, but 41k matches has led me to it and also tracking matches to see team makeups,.

 


 Here is a player with 41K matches who seems to have an explanation that works for him.

 

Truth is, none of us are in a position to know what WR is driven by and have even less way to know why WoT does what it does.    When an entire career worth of WR shows not relationship to the player's performance, it's pretty clear we don't really control much of anything about it.


 

WR as a measure of our skill is a joke that only fanboys don't get.    Those charts clearly show it doesn't follow performance.   My WR plummeted while I was improving and ran for months at a relatively steady number while my real performance stats steadily improved.   The only times it showed upward movement, it obviously thought better of that within days and quickly corrected that.   It obviously wasn't following my performance.   What was it following?    From personal observation, it kept up pretty much with the quality of teams MM dealt me.    And there wasn't anything random about them for that 3 month stretch or the WR should have deviated from that 47.6% it seemed locked in. 


 

Especially for newbies and tomatoes, using WR to judge your performance improvement will cloud your understanding of your progress.      






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