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Does Win Rate measure your ability?


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_Tsavo #21 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 12:28

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To be fair, those charts hint that the win rate is starting to match the performance, even though the damage and experience are going up, they aren't great numbers yet.  As it stands, the win rate will most likely level out at 47% until those numbers start climbing into "carry consistently" territory.

 

My guess is that you're getting into higher tier games and using bone stock tanks, which would lead to a bit more damage than you had been averaging, but at the same time having less impact on a match.

 

It seems like your mind is already made up here, reading your last post.



TRK213_Turkey #22 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 13:15

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I agree that win rate, in and of itself, is NOT a reliable indicator of individual skill or progress. On average you provide less than 7% of your team's combat power (1/15). Used well that 7% can absolutely have a positive impact on the battle and help your team win. However, you can't consistently carry the other 93% of your team unless the other team is really, really bad/unlucky or you are really, really good/lucky.

_Tsavo #23 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 13:17

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View PostTRK213_Turkey, on Apr 26 2017 - 07:15, said:

I agree that win rate, in and of itself, is NOT a reliable indicator of individual skill or progress. On average you provide less than 7% of your team's combat power (1/15). Used well that 7% can absolutely have a positive impact on the battle and help your team win. However, you can't consistently carry the other 93% of your team unless the other team is really, really bad/unlucky or you are really, really good/lucky.

 

there's a reason most win rates fall within 7% of the average

VendettaPrime #24 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 13:48

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Omg.. You got it all wrong OP saying wot wants you to dmg.. Wot ( WG) wants you to play and spend money if you are willing to, 3th party websites ( the ones you refer to) and 3th party stat sites want you to do dmg for a wn8 rating, a rating that holds more but dmg is the most important,solo wr at a high tier is a excellent stat to see how someone does.

 

and I don't know about you but I play to win, all the other stats doesn't mean a thing to me if I don't win enough games.

 

edit: never mind, I did read this complete post and I see it's no use to make you change your mind, that's probably also the reason you have very bad stats ( Yes I checked them at a 3th party NON wot webpage) srsly, you have a bad mindset, if you want to get better in this game, change that first, know that a higher tier will not make you invincible and that wot is a game you need to invest time in, 2k battles is nothing.


Edited by VendettaPrime, Apr 26 2017 - 13:58.


WangOnTheLoose #25 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 13:57

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View PostOldFrog75, on Apr 25 2017 - 22:22, said:

One of the problems with Win Rate is that it's a rolling average with a lot of lag.  There is so much historical data built into the "current" number that it takes a whole lot of battles to reverse or even affect a trend. 

 

You had a Win Rate of 51.5% after 850 battles but it dropped to 47.5% one thousand battles latter.  I think that means your Win Rate for those 1000 battles was something like 42%.  I'm guessing it will take you several thousand battles with a Win Rate of 55% or higher to get you back to your 51.5%, but all along the way you will be performing better than the Win Rate says you are.

 

I have the same problem.  I'm winning a higher percentage of battles but my Win Rate doesn't reflect the progress in any meaningful way in the short term.  I think that's one of the things that makes WotLabs.net valuable - it shows your stats over different time frames.

 

As others have suggested, once you have enough battles the average will smooth out and it will be really difficult to change it one way or the other.  Don't know what that number is - could be 5000, 10000, or 20000 battles - but at that point you probably are what the Win Rate says you are.

 

Of course it has a lot of historical data built into it, its your win rate :).  That is why you can go to sites like noobmeter and get a better look at what is going on with yourself, and others.

 

http://www.noobmeter...g75/1025104878/

 

So yes it looks like you are increasing your win rate by a good amount, keep up the good work.  Win rate is a very good indicator of how good you are but just like any other piece of information it is just a part of the picture.  WN8 is also another part of the picture and so is the amount someone platoons.  For instance I pretty much never platoon, except for dynamic platoons to do missions.  So my win rate would be a little lower than someone with the same level of skill who platoons, with other good players.  

 

How skilled someone is at the game is somewhat subjective but at the end of the day someone pulling down 60% win rate is much more likely to be significantly better than someone pulling a 49% win rate.  That is just the way it is.  There are certainly exceptions to this, of course, but still unless you are padding a lot of low tier battles in OP tanks this will usually be true.  And yes I am aware of clans that indeed do this, though a quick look at their stats will show this to be the case...... and generally speaking these people are treated with a lot of disdain by the community.



TRK213_Turkey #26 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 13:57

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View Post_Tsavo, on Apr 26 2017 - 13:17, said:

 

there's a reason most win rates fall within 7% of the average

Discounting draws, the average win rate can't be anything other than 50%. I'm not sure what the win rate range would be though.



Yankee #27 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 14:05

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Another example of why WN8 is a major factor in the division of the community and destruction of the concept of teamplay.  People play to maximize wn8 , instead of playing to win

High WN8s mean the following, high damage ( regardless if it's worthless farming at the end of a loss) high KtD, regardless of if the kills were relevant to winning the game or not, and proper tank selection to max wn8 ( high level mediums and lights with low expected values)

It's garbage, and detrimental to the game.

_Tsavo #28 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 14:11

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Yankee speaketh truth

VendettaPrime #29 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 14:16

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View PostYankee, on Apr 26 2017 - 14:05, said:

Another example of why WN8 is a major factor in the division of the community and destruction of the concept of teamplay. People play to maximize wn8 , instead of playing to win

High WN8s mean the following, high damage ( regardless if it's worthless farming at the end of a loss) high KtD, regardless of if the kills were relevant to winning the game or not, and proper tank selection to max wn8 ( high level mediums and lights with low expected values)

It's garbage, and detrimental to the game.

True, I totally agree, I had a lot more real fun when I did not look at stats like wn7/8 etc but only at my Wot stats ( the ingame stats).



uberdice #30 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 14:24

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Nobody is on your teams more often than you are.



da_Rock002 #31 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 14:29

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View Post_Tsavo, on Apr 26 2017 - 06:28, said:

To be fair, those charts hint that the win rate is starting to match the performance, even though the damage and experience are going up, they aren't great numbers yet.  As it stands, the win rate will most likely level out at 47% until those numbers start climbing into "carry consistently" territory.

 

My guess is that you're getting into higher tier games and using bone stock tanks, which would lead to a bit more damage than you had been averaging, but at the same time having less impact on a match.

 

It seems like your mind is already made up here, reading your last post.

 

Thank you

 

Those charts 'hint' at something?  

What they prove beyond argument is the WR hasn't matched performance for the entire time I've been playing. 


 

As for my numbers, I'm more than good with the numbers that mean something. 


 

Of course my mind is made up.   But it was made up on what 3 of those charts describe and my having direct knowledge those 3 followed what happened.  The truth will set you free, right.    As for the WN8 chart.....  It's what WoTLabs puts in that window.    Until a couple of months worth of seeing how WR did measuring my performance, I started looking at P.R. and WN8 and decided to ignore WN8 and WR until I could get better info.   The 3 highlighted charts cover 100% of my time and prove what I'm suggesting here.    WR is worthless as a measure of performance.   Especially in the short term which is what most people seem to use it for.  



da_Rock002 #32 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 14:34

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View Postuberdice, on Apr 26 2017 - 08:24, said:

Nobody is on your teams more often than you are.

 

uberdice,

No other statement could have shown more clearly how little you understand the topic of this thread and even less about "one in 30" odds.



MacDaddyMatty #33 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 14:47

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A wise tanker (wish I could remember who) told me that unless I'm doing more than 1.5 MORE thank my tanks HPs, my WR is entirely based on my team's performance - as I'm not contributing my weight to the team

 

Of course there are exceptions (getting into the enemies backfield and staying alive long enough to mess up their deployment and allow my team to get more advantageous spotting and map dominance for example), MY GOAL is to get the Fire for Effect or better (or 1000k spotting damage in a LT).



TRK213_Turkey #34 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 14:54

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View Postuberdice, on Apr 26 2017 - 14:24, said:

Nobody is on your teams more often than you are.

Nobody is on their team alone either. WOT is not an army of one.



WangOnTheLoose #35 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 15:39

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View Postda_Rock002, on Apr 26 2017 - 08:34, said:

 

uberdice,

No other statement could have shown more clearly how little you understand the topic of this thread and even less about "one in 30" odds.

 

Well, you may not like what he is saying but the reality is there are no good players with bad win rates, either overall or recent.

dunniteowl #36 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 15:49

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So, does WR "measure" your ability?  It certainly does.  It doesn't add inches, nor does it take pounds away -- it MEASURES.  That's a funny word all by itself when you look at it, isn't it?

 

We are the ones doing the measuring, in all point of fact.  WR does not measure your ability to do damage.  It does not measure your number of kills.  It doesn't tell you how well you are angling your armor, nor does it inform you whether or not you're hiding effectively -- or does it?  Not WR, no.


 

What WR measures is YOUR ability to make an impactful difference on your teams.  The more you win, the more you are probably doing something right, even if you aren't bringing home the TG, HCs and sometimes not even a simple FfE -- if you can consistently do what you need to do to help your team win (and sometimes that does mean just staying out of the way and not dying too soon) and make the calls on the field that aid your team's winning, then that's what WR will measure -- your overall degree of success at coordinating with a bunch of strangers to pull off a win in the match.


 

Even the best players get a carry from time to time by others.  Even the worst players will shine one day, as if a deity has cast favor upon them and they rock the match -- yet in all other respects, they are 47% players; and that's what all those other numbers represent as an aggregate -- their overall skill at doing certain things in the game.  This isJUST AS TRUE for players in the higher ranks as well.

 

If you wish to use these statistical metrics, you have to understand that they are LARGE NUMBER DATA SETS, which means a single 100 battles in 12 different vehicles, say, isn't going to give a very clear indicator of the player, BECAUSE there isn't enough data to make an assessment that is accurate.  Over a 1000 battles in one kind of unit, say, you'd pretty much know that without any additional training, skills, ability or comprehension of the game -- this is where you will be with this unit.

 

At roughly 4-6K battles, you will have a really good idea as to where you stand on the WR and overall Skills Ladder that is WoT's Ranking system.  Any other metric or tool you'd use will garner essentially the same overall information and spit it back at you in the same manner, just with a different calculated result, such as WN8.

 

If you watch your damage and kills rise; you see your ratios get closer to or above 1.0, then you know you're improving at doing damage and getting kills.  Is your WR suffering at the same time?  It usually does.


 

Learning a new unit and learning new techniques requires you to focus on them -- oftentimes at the expense of greater situational awareness of the match -- because, you're learning something new and you have to pay attention to it to get it.  That means your overall focus is not going to be as intense as it would be, otherwise.


 

I have been here since Sept 2014.  Not long by some standards.  What I bring to this game, though, is several DECADES of gaming experience, game design theory from a planning perspective, hard core rules design and statistical measurements of how things like vehicles, weapons, people and strategies play out over different time scales.  To me, this is an advantage that I must learn to leverage to compensate for my lack of quickness (I'm 56 and not getting faster these days) my reduced sharpness of vision (astigmatism diagnosed since I was in 2nd grade) and my overall ability to just pay attention without getting too tunneled while playing.

 

So I do believe WR measures your ability.  What it measures is your ability to make an IMPACTFUL difference in the matches you play.  If you make more of an impact, then your WR, by all other statistical measurements and all the natural tendencies in the variables sets, will go upwards more than down.


 

As you learn how to deal more damage (not by just going up tier for more HPs) in a ratio relative to the vehicles you are playing and it becomes more second nature to get cover, shoot and scoot, peek a boom, angle, sidescrape or achieve true hull down positioning, your damage should go up.  Not by the difference in HPs per shot, but by the number of penetrating shots you make, the number and type of units you take out and the times you don't receive hits in return.

 

The more you do that against your opponents successfully, the more you will win overall, all other things being equal.

 

There's the kicker: All other things being equal.  In this game, we know that not all things are equal.  Stuff changes on the fly and from match to match.  Someone's hot streak is in full swing while someone else's hot streak is about to get a bucket of cold water.

 


 

Six guys on one team just 'know' what they're doing this time on this map with these units and they just proceed to blow everyone else away.  You see you have a 65% CTW *(I don't use XVM, but I can describe how it works) and think. "I got this," and your team gets rekt in three minutes, because that someone who's hot streak just got doused?  He was on your team this time.


 

The other shooting star was on the other team.  Ten minutes from them, there will be others filling their roles.  You will see them as different people in different matches, but the variables, over time, will weed out their influences on your matches and start to show YOU where YOU stand, relative to the aggregate of the playing population.


 

Those are the hard truths of statistical measurements.  You have to understand that they are large numbers data sets and have to take some time to collect before you can even make a proper assessment.  In this game there are something like 400 units now.


 

How many of those are you playing or have played right now?  Unless you have played them all hundreds, if not thousands of times, you will not truly know where you stand in all or each of them.  And I doubt most of us have that amount of time, even if we were allowed to play WoT all night and day to our heart's content.  It would take years to achieve this feat.

 

I'm not asking anyone to believe in stats and how they work.  They are objective tools to be used by the individuals doing the measuring.  If the individuals doing the measuring don't understand how to use the tools, or simply reject them out of the knowledge that the data isn't flattering -- well, that's out of anyone else's hands.


 

If, however, you can look into the statistical "mirror" of your performance and recognize that this mirror is for you to use to make improvements, then you can comb your hair, get the dirt off your face and apply the right tools to your face to make it look even better.  So, don't forget to floss or only floss the ones you wish to keep.

 

Notice I didn't use any math?  It isn't necessary.  Just look at the numbers and comprehend what they are telling you.  If you don't like the answer, change the answer.  Do this by understanding what the metrics are measuring and understand what you must do to make those numbers change in a way that you can admire when you look in that "mirror" later.  As always, I counsel patience, perspective and planning when doing this.

 

As I used no math, I will also use no pressure of psychology.  If you truly wish to improve your gaming.  Honestly, truly desire to improve, the first thing to help is to recognize that this desire needs focus.  That focus has to be on improving.  You cannot do this if you think, down inside, that these numbers don't mean anything or that you are doing your best and that the reason you cannot improve is due to outside influences -- you will NOT improve.

 

A filled cup can take no more tea.  To improve, you MUST drop the notion that you are as good as you can get.  To improve you MUST recognize that you aren't doing as well as you'd like and OWN THAT!  You don't have to "own" you're a 'bad player' or 'don't get it.'  You have to own that:  Your performance is based on your understanding of the game and how you integrate that in your head to your fingers at the keyboard.

 

Once you can do that, you are free to focus on getting better, because now you know you can overcome:

 

RNG

Stat Padders

Gold Rounds

MM Shenanigans

Bad Teams

Good Opposing Teams

Bad Decisions

Other Bad Players

 

The reason this is possible is because, without a focus for blame or angst or frustration outside of you to provide you that 'get out of effort free' card of excusing your performance on how others play, you can now drop all that emotional crap and teach yourself how to get better.  Better at: angling, sidescraping, getting hull down. watching the mini-map, coordinating your actions with your team mates (even when they don't know you're doing it) and doing your best to:

 

Do Damage (try to get a Fire for Effect if you can every match at least)

Survive (your Survival Rate is the Opposite of your Death Rate, learn to see that opposite -- it's sobering)

Help Your Team (do what you can to prevent unnecessary team elims, avoid being one and eliminate the opposition)

 

Win *(maybe.)


 

Stats are there for you to use.  If you don't use them you can do fine -- if you do use them, please take the time to understand the tools you are using and what they are for.  Otherwise, those numbers are just that -- a bunch of meaningless numbers with no context to guide you.  You don't need a course in statistics to figure this stuff out -- just pay attention to what you are seeing and how they inter-relate.  If that doesn't help, ASK politely.  People here are willing to help those who are seeking, truly seeking, to improve their gaming.


 

GL, HF & HSYBF



DOMlNO #37 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 16:01

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View Postdunniteowl, on Apr 26 2017 - 09:49, said:

As I used no math, I will also use no pressure of psychology.  If you truly wish to improve your gaming.  Honestly, truly desire to improve, the first thing to help is to recognize that this desire needs focus.  That focus has to be on improving.  You cannot do this if you think, down inside, that these numbers don't mean anything or that you are doing your best and that the reason you cannot improve is due to outside influences -- you will NOT improve.

 

Amazing post Dunnite, I wish this was a sticky to point everyone to when they start topics like the OPs.



xtc4 #38 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 16:03

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View Post_Tsavo, on Apr 25 2017 - 21:08, said:

 

That last bit is important!

 

While win rate can vary wildly over a short period, the better you perform, the more consistent your win rate will be as time goes on.  I've lost 11+ games in a row and have had 19 wins in a row at one point.  Short term can be very random, but as you get thousands of games, those sporadic samples start to even out and have less impact on the overall picture.

 

 

Platoons, however, can act as a HUGE boost to win rate.  Take me, when I solo random tanks, I'm good for a about a 56-7% win rate.  When I solo tanks I enjoy or have figured out, I can pull a 58-60+% depending on the tank.  However, when I'm running with friends in a platoon, even with varying skill levels, that win rate jumps into the mid to low 60s pretty consistently.  On good runs, I can get into the higher 60s.  When I'm platooned with some of the super good players on my friends list, the win rates can get into the 70s.

 

An example of a mostly solo tank, my T23E3, has a 61% win rate.

 

My Leo, the tier 7 Swede tank, has a 60% win rate being a solo grind.

 

Another tank I almost always play alone is the Comet, with a 59% win rate.

 

The Centurion 1, a mostly solo tank, has a 56% win rate.  My 7/1 was mostly solo and had a 56% before I started platooning with it, it's now close to 58%.

On the flip side with platooning... :

 

My M46 Patton, however, is almost always in a platoon, and it has a 72% win rate.

 

My Skoda T50 is also a platooned tank, and it has a win rate of 72% as well.

 

The Type T-34 a heavily platooned tank has a 70% win rate.

 

My Cromwell B also has a 69% win rate, with a fair share being platooned.

 

Platoons can have a very large impact on how often you win.

An interesting caveat to the caveat is that we have to see how the new matchmaker affects the platoon advantage. So far, it seems like platooning with good players might not be as much of an advantage as it was in the past. With the new matchmaker, having good players in the top-tier tanks seems to be a huge advantage. Yet platooning makes you almost certain not to be top tier. So platooning might actually be less of an advantage for good players, or might even be a disadvantage if you are not among the very best players. We'll see how it plays out.


Edited by xtc4, Apr 26 2017 - 16:04.


Roggg2 #39 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 16:31

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If your skill doesn't effect win rate, then what does?  Why bother trying at all?

 

WR fluctuations over small-ish numbers of games ( and yes, 1k games is small-ish) are noise.  Your current over-all win rate is about what would be expected given your other stats (wn8 for example).  Your 51% was never "earned".  You got carried a few more times than average, and it skewed your win rate positively in your first 1k games or so.  It is "regressing towards the mean" now.

 

Good players have better win rates over sufficient numbers of games than bad players.  Average players are somewhere in the middle.  Rejecting this principle means rejecting the idea that anyone contributes to or detracts from their team's chances to win at all.  This is a very odd and illogical position to take. 



Finnegan_Gromyko #40 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 16:38

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View Postblackzaru, on Apr 26 2017 - 02:42, said:

Well, sorry to tell you this, but, given your number of battles, the stats you showed mean nothing.

Why? Low number of battles (2000), means you are climbing up tiers.

What does that mean?

  1. WN8 has a negative factor for lower tiers (to prevent seal-clubbing inflation). Thus, has you climb in tiers, even if you play the same, your WN8 will increase.
  2. As you climb up tiers, so will your average damage, as all tanks now have more and more hp.
  3. As all tanks have more and more hp, you average damage will increase, and so will your average experience.

 

IE: yes, it shows your ability, as it is the only stat in there not affected by what tier you are playing, nor the fact that you are slowly increasing in tiers.

 

This. 

 






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