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Does Win Rate measure your ability?


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strenfoo #41 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 16:41

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View Postda_Rock002, on Apr 25 2017 - 19:29, said:

The lower left chart is a plot of the Average Damage and lower right a plot of the Average Experience as I've been learning the game.     FWIW, the upper right is WN8 tracking of whatever WN8 measures.   I've been pleased all along how 3 of those measures have shown a steady increase that basically never really declined.

 

The fact that those 3 charts are showing an increase over time doesn't necessarily mean you're getting better at helping your team win, which is most important.  It could just mean you're getting better at farming damage.  For example, I went from light green to teal WN8 recents mainly by getting better at staying alive as long as possible and farming damage when I know it's a loss as opposed to just throwing my tank away.  My average XP and dmg per game as well as WN8 all went up but my win rate only went up a little bit.  In other words, I wasn't actually any better of a player and that's what I'm working on.  I just figured out how to get more XP and credits, and a higher WN8, on my losses (which was one of my goals).

 

To me, those charts you showed just shows you're getting better at farming damage but still haven't figured out how to consistently contribute to your team winning and that's the hardest thing to learn in this game.  Looking at win rate and comparing against other stats, so you can rule out whether or not the player is padding their win rate, shows if one knows how to do that.

 

There's a reason why all bad players have bad win rates and all unicums have good win rates ...


Edited by strenfoo, Apr 26 2017 - 16:55.


Finnegan_Gromyko #42 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 16:47

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My clan mates often discuss Wn8 vs WR. To me, WR is the more important stat.

 

The OP's stats are affected by the low number of games, and the fact he/she is grinding up through the tiers. 

 

Wn8 is also affected by 'statpadding'. I constantly see players in the game padding their dmg stats at the expense of winning the game. Just two days ago we lost a very close game on El Halluf. The enemy were capping, and the one fast tank that could have reset was running around looking for arty to kill. 

 

Everyone was pointing out the game was winnable, but this guy just padded his stats. 

 

Another common problem is players failing to return to base when they win their flank but the other flank falls. Instead, they blunder ahead looking for easy arty or TD kills, when falling back would win the game.

 

A more subtle problem is people always going where they know they can get damage, and no one goes to a critical point that needs to be held in order to win. 

 

I like boosting my win rate, so if I see an unguarded flank I'll often go there and try to hold off an enemy charge long enough so my team can win their flank. I might not do much damage, but if I can slow them down for a win, that's fine with me. 

 

Stat padders remind me of a guy I played hockey with. He had great skills and was our number one goal scorer, but he never passed. He just wanted more goals and glory. He had the lowest number of assists on the team, and our team was losing. The coaches suspended him from rep hockey and sent him down to house league, where he sucked even more.

 

So, increasing your Wn8 does not always result in better Win Rate, and the point of the game is winning for your team, not padding stats for yourself.

 

Rather than think about how to get more damage, think tactically about how you can use your tank to make that difference for a win.



Roggg2 #43 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 16:58

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View Postda_Rock002, on Apr 26 2017 - 06:13, said:

 


 Here is a player with 41K matches who seems to have an explanation that works for him.

 

Truth is, none of us are in a position to know what WR is driven by and have even less way to know why WoT does what it does.    When an entire career worth of WR shows not relationship to the player's performance, it's pretty clear we don't really control much of anything about it.


 

WR as a measure of our skill is a joke that only fanboys don't get.    Those charts clearly show it doesn't follow performance.   My WR plummeted while I was improving and ran for months at a relatively steady number while my real performance stats steadily improved.   The only times it showed upward movement, it obviously thought better of that within days and quickly corrected that.   It obviously wasn't following my performance.   What was it following?    From personal observation, it kept up pretty much with the quality of teams MM dealt me.    And there wasn't anything random about them for that 3 month stretch or the WR should have deviated from that 47.6% it seemed locked in. 


 

Especially for newbies and tomatoes, using WR to judge your performance improvement will cloud your understanding of your progress.      

 

Dafuq are you on about?  41k games doesn't entitle you to a good win rate.  You can play badly your whole life and have a below average win rate over any number of games.

 

You claim no correlation...let's look:

 

DaRock:  wn8:  343, WR 47.97.  Below average "performance", and slightly below average win rate.  One "color" shade difference.

Roggg2:  wn8:1035, WR:  50.42  Both wotlabs "above average".  Same color shade.

 

Other posters above the quoted post:

Tazilon:  WN8:  2597 (unicum), WR:  56..11 (Great)  One color shade difference.

TLWiz:  WN8:  1143 (above average), WR:  49.74 (average)  (one color shade difference, but very close to 0)

 

So there's you and me and the last 3 posters before yours where win rate correlates to performance.  There is no "entire career" of data showing non-correlation.  Correlation is everywhere on pretty much every data set of significant size I've ever looked at.  Show me one player with 7k+ battles whose WN8 and WR diverge by more than 3 color shades on the wotlabs chart for which there is no mitigating factors, and then we can talk about your claim that there is no correlation between the two.  

 

 



da_Rock002 #44 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:08

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View Poststrenfoo, on Apr 26 2017 - 10:41, said:

 

The fact that those 3 charts are showing an increase over time doesn't necessarily mean you're getting better at helping your team win, which is most important.  It could just mean you're getting better at farming damage.  For example, I went from light green to teal WN8 recents mainly by getting better at staying alive as long as possible and farming damage when I know it's a loss as opposed to just throwing my tank away.  My average XP and dmg per game as well as WN8 all went up but my win rate only went up a little bit.  In other words, I wasn't actually any better of a player and that's what I'm working on.  I just figured out how to get more XP and credits, and a higher WN8, on my losses (which was one of my goals).

 

To me, those charts you showed just shows you're getting better at farming damage but still haven't figured out how to consistently contribute to your team winning and that's the hardest thing to learn in this game.  Looking at win rate and comparing against other stats, so you can rule out whether or not the player is padding their win rate, shows if one knows how to do that.

 

There's a reason why all bad players have bad win rates and all unicums have good win rates ...

 

Do you realize how ignorant it sounds to tell a newcomer it's his fault his team lost so many battles, and THEN backing out into the mists....

 

It's actually somewhat stupid to tell newbies to get guud and then shuffle off. 


 

An idiot can see there are 29 other people in his battles.  And you guys are telling ALL OF THEM the reason they lose is their individual contribution wasn't good enough to win.


 

It also doesn't take a genius to see that my WR never was worth spit as a measure of MY worth to those battles.   Yet, you guys keep telling newbies about their WR..........    


 

BTW, a couple of you have described how bad my record is.    And some even talked about my WR.   You made me chuckle.   A couple even said my DMG was bad and such.    Did you get that from the WoT averages?    You're proving how badly that works.


 

If I'm the reason we lost, then it follows that I'm the reason we won.   And we all know and some of us actually understand that isn't possible.   Neither is. 



_Tsavo #45 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:25

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Okay, it's clear you don't want help here.



520667 #46 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:26

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wr8 never measures anything unless you're going 1v1 with people and have separate wr8 for that also i notice i'll see players on the losing team doing pretty good and then they are the only person left and get shot and die so not rly

Yu86 #47 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:33

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In 1000 games, your exp is up, dpg is up and wn8 is up too. Are you playing higher tier now than 1000 games before?

Edited by Yu86, Apr 26 2017 - 17:34.


VendettaPrime #48 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:33

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You Will never be good at this game, simply due to the fact you are not willing to see the most important factor.

so please let's just leave it to that, you carry on blaming everything else except the one that's actually the problem.

 

if you can not accept the fact it's you and are not willing to change your mind when others state facts it's completely worthless to have a reasonable discussion about this topic.

 

btw I'm a solo player also.



WangOnTheLoose #49 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:35

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View Postda_Rock002, on Apr 26 2017 - 11:08, said:

 

Do you realize how ignorant it sounds to tell a newcomer it's his fault his team lost so many battles, and THEN backing out into the mists....

 

It's actually somewhat stupid to tell newbies to get guud and then shuffle off. 


 

An idiot can see there are 29 other people in his battles.  And you guys are telling ALL OF THEM the reason they lose is their individual contribution wasn't good enough to win.


 

It also doesn't take a genius to see that my WR never was worth spit as a measure of MY worth to those battles.   Yet, you guys keep telling newbies about their WR..........    


 

BTW, a couple of you have described how bad my record is.    And some even talked about my WR.   You made me chuckle.   A couple even said my DMG was bad and such.    Did you get that from the WoT averages?    You're proving how badly that works.


 

If I'm the reason we lost, then it follows that I'm the reason we won.   And we all know and some of us actually understand that isn't possible.   Neither is. 

 

No that isn't what anyone said.  The reason or reasons you lost any specific battle are numerous and not worth talking about unless we have a replay...... the reason you lose 52% of the time is because you are a bad player and need to get better.  Those are two very different things.

 

And yes I am solo player who wins 54% of their games....... 


Edited by WangOnTheLoose, Apr 26 2017 - 17:37.


Roggg2 #50 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:38

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View Postda_Rock002, on Apr 26 2017 - 11:08, said:

 

Do you realize how ignorant it sounds to tell a newcomer it's his fault his team lost so many battles, and THEN backing out into the mists....

 

It's actually somewhat stupid to tell newbies to get guud and then shuffle off. 


 

An idiot can see there are 29 other people in his battles.  And you guys are telling ALL OF THEM the reason they lose is their individual contribution wasn't good enough to win.


 

It also doesn't take a genius to see that my WR never was worth spit as a measure of MY worth to those battles.   Yet, you guys keep telling newbies about their WR..........    


 

BTW, a couple of you have described how bad my record is.    And some even talked about my WR.   You made me chuckle.   A couple even said my DMG was bad and such.    Did you get that from the WoT averages?    You're proving how badly that works.


 

If I'm the reason we lost, then it follows that I'm the reason we won.   And we all know and some of us actually understand that isn't possible.   Neither is. 

 

One last try.  You are not the reason why you lost each and every battle that you lost, and you are not the reason why you won every battle that you won.  But there were battles where if you had done more, the outcome would have been a win instead of a loss.  And there were battles where if you had done a little less, it might have been a loss instead of a win.

 

Good players turn more wins into losses than bad players.  Not a lot...just a handful out of every hundred or so.  As a result, better players have higher win rates.

 

So you may not be the reason for every loss or win, but you are CERTAINLY the reason why your win rate is about 48% instead of 58%.  Or 44% for that matter.  

 

I really dont understand this form of nihilism that claims nothing anyone does makes any difference to the outcome of any battle.  I dont understand why anyone would bother playing a game where no amount of skill makes any difference.



VendettaPrime #51 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:42

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View PostRoggg2, on Apr 26 2017 - 17:38, said:

 

One last try.  You are not the reason why you lost each and every battle that you lost, and you are not the reason why you won every battle that you won.  But there were battles where if you had done more, the outcome would have been a win instead of a loss.  And there were battles where if you had done a little less, it might have been a loss instead of a win.

 

Good players turn more wins into losses than bad players.  Not a lot...just a handful out of every hundred or so.  As a result, better players have higher win rates.

 

So you may not be the reason for every loss or win, but you are CERTAINLY the reason why your win rate is about 48% instead of 58%.  Or 44% for that matter.  

 

I really dont understand this form of nihilism that claims nothing anyone does makes any difference to the outcome of any battle.  I dont understand why anyone would bother playing a game where no amount of skill makes any difference.

 

good explanation.

WangOnTheLoose #52 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:43

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View PostRoggg2, on Apr 26 2017 - 11:38, said:

 

One last try.  You are not the reason why you lost each and every battle that you lost, and you are not the reason why you won every battle that you won.  But there were battles where if you had done more, the outcome would have been a win instead of a loss.  And there were battles where if you had done a little less, it might have been a loss instead of a win.

 

Good players turn more wins into losses than bad players.  Not a lot...just a handful out of every hundred or so.  As a result, better players have higher win rates.

 

So you may not be the reason for every loss or win, but you are CERTAINLY the reason why your win rate is about 48% instead of 58%.  Or 44% for that matter.  

 

I really dont understand this form of nihilism that claims nothing anyone does makes any difference to the outcome of any battle.  I dont understand why anyone would bother playing a game where no amount of skill makes any difference.

 

Spot on +1

Peak_Bagger #53 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:46

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Roggg, that is indeed a great explanation! And it fits with my mindset. I'm still terrible at this game, but every once in a while I'll have a game where I know that I made a difference in the win, If I hadn't done what I had done, we would have lost. It's very rare, but it does happen, even for me. And it's an awesome feeling when that happens!. Of course, I have many more games where I figure we could have won if I had done something different. But that's just more proof to me that I am having an impact, one way or another.

Yu86 #54 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:49

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1015 games ago, your avg Tier was about 3.4, you played 1015 games avg Tier 5.43. So you claim your exp and dpg went up is because your "performance" is better?



VendettaPrime #55 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 17:52

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http://wotlabs.net/na/player/da_Rock002

 

you just need Some help, send me a friend request ingame and I am willing to toon with you and help you out if I am online, thing is I'm only at tier 4 right now so I hope you don't mind that, I almost never toon so give me some time to adjust.

 


Edited by VendettaPrime, Apr 26 2017 - 17:53.


Grasschopper #56 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 18:50

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View Postdunniteowl, on Apr 26 2017 - 09:49, said:

As I used no math, I will also use no pressure of psychology.  If you truly wish to improve your gaming.  Honestly, truly desire to improve, the first thing to help is to recognize that this desire needs focus.  That focus has to be on improving.  You cannot do this if you think, down inside, that these numbers don't mean anything or that you are doing your best and that the reason you cannot improve is due to outside influences -- you will NOT improve.

 

View PostDOMlNO, on Apr 26 2017 - 10:01, said:

Amazing post Dunnite, I wish this was a sticky to point everyone to when they start topics like the OPs.

 

Exactly.  Also a new player is going to have an inflated initial win rate because your first 10 battles should be against bots.  You SHOULD come out of those 10 battles with a 100% win rate so you can literally only go down from there.  Then you're playing tier 1 or tier 2 in randoms....now your skill and that of others starts to have an impact but as others have pointed out low battle count.  At tier 3 you are introduced to tier 5...RIP you.  You now suddenly have MUCH less impact on whether or not the team wins.  You can do your part and when in tier 3 battles and even tier 4 battles you can win or lose but fighting tier 5s...not nearly as much.  Once you have 4k-5k battles in and are in the mid tiers your win rate matters a bit more and you can have real impact on every match.

 

All this said if you're looking to judge a player skill the question also depends on skill of doing what?  There are plenty of players who will farm noobs all day long and have good win rates and WN8 numbers.  But when I see a guy with 20k-50k battles and high win rate and WN8 and then see an average tier played of 5 I just shake my head.  This player has found a tank they like...be it the T67, Cromwell or whatever and they run it all day racking up crew skills and beating on newcomers.  Are they really skilled?  Or have they learned to use their teams to farm newer players with bad crews and stock tanks?  If you look at top players they are not only winning and producing high WN8 numbers but they are also playing tiers 8, 9 and 10 all the time.  Look at a player like CrabEatOff from G for instance.  His current 1 day is 64% win rate (which is actually bad for him) 4,024 WN8 and an average tier played of 8.13.  That's not luck...that's skill.



strenfoo #57 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 20:09

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View Postda_Rock002, on Apr 26 2017 - 10:08, said:

 

Do you realize how ignorant it sounds to tell a newcomer it's his fault his team lost so many battles, and THEN backing out into the mists....

<snip>

 

Huh?  Where'd all that come from?  Who's backing out into the mists?  Nobody said you are the only reason you don't win your losing games nor did anyone even imply that.  What we are saying is that you are a member of all of your teams and your performance can directly impact whether or not you win or lose.  To say win rate doesn't matter is complete B.S.  Padding aside (again, which is indicated by comparing win rate against other stats) and given a large enough sample size, win rate is the stat that most accurately shows whether or not you can consistently help your team win.

 

Of course there will be losses that are beyond your control just like there will be games you will win even if you did nothing and never fired a single shot.  Even the best players will lose 30 - 40% of their games when playing solo just like even the worst players will win about 40% of their games.  It's that middle 20%'ish range that shows how good of a player you are and how well you can influence your battles one way or the other.  It shows if you can turn what would have been a loss into a win or if you turn what should have been a win into a loss.

 

I always play with the mindset that I have to carry all my teams to victory even though I'm not nearly good enough to do that most of the time.  Likewise, I always assume every loss is my fault even when I really know there was nothing I could do.  That helps me when I'm analyzing my performance and answering the question "what could I have done differently in order to pull out a win?".  Even if there was no way I could have won that battle, chances are that a similar scenario will come up in a future battle and a better decision might mean turning that future loss into a win.  It's that mind set that's helped me go from a 46% tomato to my current 54% recent WR; it wasn't luck, MM, etc. 

 

If you're going in with the mindset that 1 of 15 can't make a difference, win rate doesn't matter, and whether or not you win or lose is a coin flip, why even bother playing this game?


Edited by strenfoo, Apr 26 2017 - 20:20.


Slatherer #58 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 20:28

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WR is completely dependant upon the various levels of skill, luck and RNG of 30 players.  Period.

TRK213_Turkey #59 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 23:07

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View PostRoggg2, on Apr 26 2017 - 17:38, said:

I really dont understand this form of nihilism that claims nothing anyone does makes any difference to the outcome of any battle.  I dont understand why anyone would bother playing a game where no amount of skill makes any difference.

 

I don’t think that he is saying that nothing he does will make a difference to the outcome of an individual battle or that there is no point in trying to get better because win rate is out of your control.  If that was the case then just put a rock on your “W” key and go make a sandwich. I know that I don't feel that way.

 

Look at the original question/premise “Does Win Rate measure your ability?”  While your ability/skill will influence your win rate that win rate alone is not an objective measure of that ability.  You can’t take win rate as an isolated statistic and draw a realistic conclusion about that individuals ability.  There are too many other variables at play.  IHMO.

 

An example might be the upcoming NFL draft.  The worst team gets the first round draft pick.  So a really, really bad team picks a new, extremely talented quarterback. Unfortunately, the rest of the team absolutely sucks in the worst possible way: The wide receivers can’t catch a cold, the defensive line trips over its own shoe laces and the offensive line leaks like a sieve.  This team goes 2 and 14 for the season.  Would that 12.5% win rate be an objective measure of the new quarterback’s ability?

 

There are some toxic players you will meet in public matches who “shame” newbes for having a low win rate or otherwise not doing well and things like XVM just makes that worse.  Everyone handles this type of criticism in their own way.  For some that leads to a negative impression of the game and the player base in general resulting in “attitude“.  The posters here in the newcomers forum are very helpful and, usually, patient with stupid newbe questions (which is greatly appreciated).  There are some very good arguments here but I think that some may be loosing site of the original question.  

 

Personally, I just try to get better, contribute to the match as much as I can and let win rate worry about itself. :izmena:



uberdice #60 Posted Apr 26 2017 - 23:20

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View Postda_Rock002, on Apr 26 2017 - 23:34, said:

 

uberdice,

No other statement could have shown more clearly how little you understand the topic of this thread and even less about "one in 30" odds.

 

No other statement could have shown more clearly how little you understand the law of large numbers.

 

The average ability of every single one of the teams you've been on, having played a couple of thousand battles now, has been... average. The average RNG outcome distribution in each match has been... average.

 

Leaving your own ability as the only variable.

 

The fact is that some players aren't 1/15 of their team. When you're below average, you're occupying a slot on your team that could have been filled by an average player. In effect, you can occupy 1/15 of your team's roster, but your skill level might mean that the slot is worth less than 1 player, leaving your team just that little bit outmatched in every single game.

 

View PostTRK213_Turkey, on Apr 26 2017 - 23:54, said:

Nobody is on their team alone either. WOT is not an army of one.

 

Exactly. Nobody is on their team alone. This means that your performance matters because it affects how the rest of your team performs.

 

Everyone is working with the same pool of talent over time. If you're underperforming, you're forcing the rest of your team to have to pick up the slack. 15 average players will win more often against 14 average players with 1 bad.






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