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Jeers for Personal Reserves

Personal Reserves

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Martian_Sentry #1 Posted Jul 25 2017 - 23:27

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I'm standing by to hand out rolls of foil for all those who feel it necessary to dismiss the following as "tin foil hat time" but really, why

waste your time posting that here when you could be playing another match in WOT.  But if you must have at it.

 

So, my point is Personal Reserves are worse than simply useless; they are in fact a scam - a bit of the old 'Dr. Feelgood ' snake oil meant to make

us feel good (you know - "free" stuff) but accomplishing either little or nothing of benefit.  In fact my feeling is they are actually a negative factor -

here's why.

 

I have several lines where I'd like to complete a tank's research and my PR counter is maxed at 99 but I know there's much more available.  My past

experience with PR's has been very negative but the darn things keep popping up, so I decided to give them another try.  Went German with my

Panther II and Tiger(P) plus a Large one hour Experience PR.  NA-East server approx. 4:30 to 5:30 pm today, Tues, 25 July.

 

Disaster!  Ten matches - ten loses:  two by Base Capture and the other eight with ALL of our team destroyed versus enemy loses of 4 - 11 -

6 - 6 - 6 - 10 - 11 & 11 (I count four of those eight as blow-outs as the ratio was greater than 2 to 1).

 

I play often during the week at about this same time period and later into the evening and my usual MM experience results in loses for the first two

or three matches, then MM settles down into a more balanced back and forth.

 

But TEN in a row is definitely NOT normal, but it DOES coincide with my past (admittedly subjective) experiences with trying to achieve something

useful with PR's.  So it certainly feels like the activation of a PR creates at least a bias in MM against the player.  And please don't say it CAN'T

happen !  Unless you are a coder or high level executive working for WG you CANNOT know exactly what's included in MM's algorithm.  And yes I know

some of you may have had better experiences with your PR's, but then every legal slot machine is programmed to pay out once in a while.

 

While my Stat classes are decades in the past so I can no longer define a Standard Deviation or a 3-Sigma result, my observational data is decidedly

negative for PR's and I'll let them rot.  I'd rather have a decent shot at an enjoyable match then the minimal extras they may or may not provide while

increasing my chances for a loss.

 



Demonic_Angel_of_Death #2 Posted Jul 25 2017 - 23:31

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The crew XP coupled with an XP reserve comes in handy, but the credits and free XP ones really aren't worth it...

Silvers_ #3 Posted Jul 25 2017 - 23:32

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Confirmation bias is NOT the same.

I'll pop 3 bonus's. XP, Crew XP and Free XP and still win more than I lose. and If my clan pops a credit XP I'll toss my own credit one and make 150-200k a match each and every time as long as I'm doing damage.

What you have posted is confirmation bias.

Mad_Dog_Seabee #4 Posted Jul 25 2017 - 23:40

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I am at work on a coffee break, which gives me time to come browse the forums for a bit. 

 

Personal Reserves has no correlation with Match-Making. Winning more is based solely off a player's willingness to learn how the game mechanic work, learn the maps' in full and learn the flow of the battle. Reserves simply boost the amount of experience or crew experience or free experience a player will receive between battles. 



_GeorgePreddy #5 Posted Jul 25 2017 - 23:49

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View PostMad_Dog_Seabee, on Jul 25 2017 - 23:40, said:

I am at work on a coffee break, which gives me time to come browse the forums for a bit. 

 

Personal Reserves has no correlation with Match-Making. Winning more is based solely off a player's willingness to learn how the game mechanic work, learn the maps' in full and learn the flow of the battle. Reserves simply boost the amount of experience or crew experience or free experience a player will receive between battles. 

 

Please refrain from sharing your common sense logic with those who choose to believe PRs are a bad thing.

 

Remember, success in this game is based not only on how good WE are, but is mostly relative to what others are able to accomplish.

 

If everyone in the game except me refuses to use PRs and I use them profusely... I will gain a serious advantage.

 

Food for thought, maybe we shouldn't be so quick to educate the wrong thinkers, it will just make our own road harder.


Edited by _GeorgePreddy, Jul 25 2017 - 23:50.


Big_Daddy_Cane #6 Posted Jul 25 2017 - 23:51

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I was wondering about that too, I've had some bad losing streaks as well.  On reflection though, I think it might be because I play a more rushed game when I'm trying to get in as many games as I can in an hour. I think it's more my fault than MM.

Commercially, it probably benefits WG more to advance players in tier anyway, as the tanks credit cost becomes so much greater, leading to more purchase of premium accounts, premium tanks and outright credit buys from the shop.



LpBronco #7 Posted Jul 25 2017 - 23:57

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...and partly, it has been an effort from Wargaming to actually help level the field between newer players and the old guard. Personal reserves are an attempt to actually help with the credit and experience grinds and although it may also benefit WG from the conversion of experience to free experience it does help alleviate some of the worst of the grind.

 

I have so many of these now I will pop three even if I know I'm only going to play a few games and no point in rushing through to get in more games because I have more than I can use anyway.



thrashmaniac999 #8 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 00:00

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they need to change how personal reserves works . it need to start the count on how many games you played . i never go past 10 matches with the 1 hours ones

Pointby #9 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 00:15

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I know it's not true, but it seems like Personal Reserves equal extended losses. I never make it the hour before quitting in frustration.

Blucraft #10 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 00:59

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OP, if you think it...it becomes true "to you".  Self fulfilling prophecy.

 

-Blu 



Themutt36 #11 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 01:06

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Was on same time today, and popped a reserve.  I went 2/8.  Had a mixture of good and bad games meaning sometimes I was able to do my HP in damage, sometimes not.  But I still use them because I at least get more exp/credits/crew bonus  than without using them, even on a losing streak.

 

 

Trying again... the lemming trains are strong tonight...


Edited by Themutt36, Jul 26 2017 - 02:09.


JOSEPHINEISH #12 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 01:12

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I start losing when I check the crew training box.I know it's just mental BS but I will not win when I do it so I don't anymore lol.You can't play this game when you're mentally handicapped with confirmation bias so don't do those things that cause it that works for me anyway.

Nudnick #13 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 01:24

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I always use reserves so don't worry about the time limit. If it runs out while I'm AFK I just pop another one. I figure I need all the help I can get, so why not use them up.

Mudman24 #14 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 01:27

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I used reserves last night to start grinding Swede TDs. I went 80%.

Nonamanadus #15 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 01:35

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Strange I was maxing out personal reserves (the 200 & 300% ones) on all three boxes and for the most part I ended doing good. You just won the bad streak lottery is all.

 

Oh an if you are using the credit reserves maybe focus on using premium tanks to max the credits.



Lord_Hiney #16 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 01:47

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Today I ate a ham sandwich, then later I was stung by a bee. Last time I was stung by a bee, I had also eaten a ham sandwich.

Guess I better stop eating ham sandwiches.

Mudman24 #17 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 01:53

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View PostLord_Hiney, on Jul 25 2017 - 18:47, said:

Today I ate a ham sandwich, then later I was stung by a bee. Last time I was stung by a bee, I had also eaten a ham sandwich.

Guess I better stop eating ham sandwiches.

http://www.tylervige...us-correlations

 

:popcorn:



Nudnick #18 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 01:54

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View PostLord_Hiney, on Jul 26 2017 - 01:47, said:

Today I ate a ham sandwich, then later I was stung by a bee. Last time I was stung by a bee, I had also eaten a ham sandwich.

Guess I better stop eating ham sandwiches.

 

Or eat your ham sandwich in the house instead of under a wasp nest.

Martian_Sentry #19 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 02:44

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First - I appreciate the honest and straight forward replies.  I wasn't trying to start a flame war but simply state my observations and to gauge, from the replies, how others felt about PR's.

 

In reply though ---

View PostSilvers_, on Jul 25 2017 - 22:32, said:

Confirmation bias is NOT the same.

I'll pop 3 bonus's. XP, Crew XP and Free XP and still win more than I lose. and If my clan pops a credit XP I'll toss my own credit one and make 150-200k a match each and every time as long as I'm doing damage.

What you have posted is confirmation bias.

 

I am aware of confirmation bias, but that does not rule out the validity of observation.  If it did science wouldn't make any progress at all.  Its the job of statistics to validate the significance of those observations.  So its not proper to simply dismiss my observations out-of-hand as automatically CB.  Besides, it would be logical to presume as a starting point that PR's are a VALUABLE 

commodity and so the CB should be in the FAVOR of PR's.  And that would make evidence/observation to the contrary not CB.

 

View PostMad_Dog_Seabee, on Jul 25 2017 - 22:40, said:

I am at work on a coffee break, which gives me time to come browse the forums for a bit. 

 

Personal Reserves has no correlation with Match-Making. Winning more is based solely off a player's willingness to learn how the game mechanic work, learn the maps' in full and learn the flow of the battle. Reserves simply boost the amount of experience or crew experience or free experience a player will receive between battles. 

 

As I stated in the original post, you cannot know this unless you have explicit knowledge of the algorithm underlying the MM.  You may or want to believe it but you cannot state it categorically 

as you've done.  We do KNOW there are a number of elements operating in MM to position each player within a match, INCLUDING an overall attempt to keep the bell curve as narrowly close

to the 50% point as possible.  So its certainly a possibility the MM algorithm notes the activation of PR's AND creates a bias that affects that player's placement in a match.

 

View PostBlucraft, on Jul 25 2017 - 23:59, said:

OP, if you think it...it becomes true "to you".  Self fulfilling prophecy.

 

-Blu 

 

I'll point again to my comments about Conf. Bias.  It's logical to assume at the beginning that PR's ARE a good thing so that is what "I Think".  It was only experience and observation that pushed

AGAINST what I initially thought and has begun to CHANGE my opinion.  That is hardly a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

View PostLord_Hiney, on Jul 26 2017 - 00:47, said:

Today I ate a ham sandwich, then later I was stung by a bee. Last time I was stung by a bee, I had also eaten a ham sandwich.

Guess I better stop eating ham sandwiches.

 

Why do you assume I'm not perfectly aware that correlation does not equate to causation?  But again it is the job of multiple observations and statistics to establish or exclude the link.

Remember the old adage - Once Is Chance, Twice is Coincidence, Third Time Is Enemy Action.

So, if you do keep eating ham sandwiches and then later continue to be stung by a bee - well, there MAY be something in those sandwiches attracting the bees to you.

 

Again, thanks for all your replies.  I appreciate the effort.



Kliphie #20 Posted Jul 26 2017 - 04:29

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I played 6  games also on USE during that same time period today with a 100% XP Boost and 50% credit boost.  Went 4 and 2.   





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