Jump to content


Hurrican Irma


  • Please log in to reply
30 replies to this topic

HOTA_CHATON #1 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 21:05

    Major

  • Players
  • 12200 battles
  • 12,601
  • [S-F] S-F
  • Member since:
    09-28-2011
Well, here we sit, along the Gulf Coast, waiting, watching, hoping, and praying that this dies out.  We also so know, having been the recipient of the worst hurricane, in recent history, Camille, how those desires can and often do turn out.  All we can really do is wait.  I remember Camille, and now, I guess, I will remember Irma also.  Scientist(s), well those that are climate change [edited], try to tell us it's all mans fault, but it isn't.  All this was predicted thousands of years ago, and no, it wasn't  Nostradamus either but, by someone else, we all tend to ignore.  Be seeing you later.

Devildog8 #2 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 21:11

    Major

  • Players
  • 9341 battles
  • 3,727
  • [XILES] XILES
  • Member since:
    12-26-2011
if irma hits the gulf and steams to texas it will be a cat 5 again and houston and other southern cities could be in for a very rough ride, if it hits florida it will be devastating they are calling for it to stall as well and dump many feet of rain, 2 big hurricanes hitting NA in a few weeks is a catastrophe 

Vampiresbane #3 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 21:23

    Captain

  • Players
  • 24425 battles
  • 1,084
  • [MEDIC] MEDIC
  • Member since:
    06-27-2011

View PostHOTA_CHATON, on Sep 05 2017 - 20:05, said:

Well, here we sit, along the Gulf Coast, waiting, watching, hoping, and praying that this dies out.  We also so know, having been the recipient of the worst hurricane, in recent history, Camille, how those desires can and often do turn out.  All we can really do is wait.  I remember Camille, and now, I guess, I will remember Irma also.  Scientist(s), well those that are climate change [edited], try to tell us it's all mans fault, but it isn't.  All this was predicted thousands of years ago, and no, it wasn't  Nostradamus either but, by someone else, we all tend to ignore.  Be seeing you later.

 

The severity of each hurricane and the increased frequency of them over the years suggests mankind is having an influence.  Whether or not you agree with that doesn't matter; all of our cities have to build infrastructure in order to cope with a higher frequency of droughts/floods/hurricanes/tornadoes/forest fires/snowfalls/etc.

 

With that said, hopefully, you all can weather the storm and make it out safe, property, house, and lives intact.



Bad_Oedipus #4 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 21:43

    First lieutenant

  • -Players-
  • 32697 battles
  • 982
  • [PL1AD] PL1AD
  • Member since:
    08-09-2014
They could strike a deal with NK and rename it to KimJongUnstable... so he could claim credit for massive strike against US.

Veevslav #5 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 21:44

    Corporal

  • Players
  • 14973 battles
  • 36
  • [KTFO] KTFO
  • Member since:
    04-20-2011

View PostVampiresbane, on Sep 05 2017 - 20:23, said:

 

The severity of each hurricane and the increased frequency of them over the years suggests mankind is having an influence.  Whether or not you agree with that doesn't matter; all of our cities have to build infrastructure in order to cope with a higher frequency of droughts/floods/hurricanes/tornadoes/forest fires/snowfalls/etc.

 

With that said, hopefully, you all can weather the storm and make it out safe, property, house, and lives intact.

 

What a load of crap. Largest hurricane to make landfall was in 1935. 1926 for the costliest. 1900 for the deadliest.

To doom and gloom the global warming push is just fallacious trumpeting. Climate changes and cycles. It is what it does. Give us 2000 years of tracked weather and we still would not be able to see the whole picture.

 

To those at risk, stay safe and get safer. Leave a few traps for looters, preferably deadly traps. Get your stuff out of the basement and off the main level. Go stay with your aunt Francine in New Jersey or your brother Marcus in Chicago.



Veevslav #6 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 21:45

    Corporal

  • Players
  • 14973 battles
  • 36
  • [KTFO] KTFO
  • Member since:
    04-20-2011

View PostBad_Oedipus, on Sep 05 2017 - 20:43, said:

They could strike a deal with NK and rename it to KimJongUnstable... so he could claim credit for massive strike against US.

 

They could blame it on his last bean burrito episode...

Vipsanius #7 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 21:45

    Staff sergeant

  • Players
  • 26895 battles
  • 336
  • Member since:
    01-01-2013

Irma is still too far out to figure out what it will do to the U.S.  However, if I were in Florida, I'd be packing up.  If you're elsewhere on the Gulf Coast or East Coast, I'd be getting ready.

 

A few models are down right scary (i.e., if it stays north of the island chains and continues to strengthen, it could end up being the strongest ever recorded).

 

 

 

 



Vipsanius #8 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 21:49

    Staff sergeant

  • Players
  • 26895 battles
  • 336
  • Member since:
    01-01-2013

View PostVampiresbane, on Sep 05 2017 - 21:23, said:

 

The severity of each hurricane and the increased frequency of them over the years suggests mankind is having an influence.  Whether or not you agree with that doesn't matter; all of our cities have to build infrastructure in order to cope with a higher frequency of droughts/floods/hurricanes/tornadoes/forest fires/snowfalls/etc.

 

With that said, hopefully, you all can weather the storm and make it out safe, property, house, and lives intact.

 

Nah, it had been 12 years since a major hurricane hit the U.S. - Wilma in 2005 until Harvey.  That was the longest stretch without a major hurricane on record, so you can't make that kind of correlation.

 



NL_Celt #9 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 21:52

    Major

  • Players
  • 25310 battles
  • 5,358
  • Member since:
    10-05-2012

View PostHOTA_CHATON, on Sep 05 2017 - 16:35, said:

Well, here we sit, along the Gulf Coast, waiting, watching, hoping, and praying that this dies out.  We also so know, having been the recipient of the worst hurricane, in recent history, Camille, how those desires can and often do turn out.  All we can really do is wait.  I remember Camille, and now, I guess, I will remember Irma also.  Scientist(s), well those that are climate change [edited], try to tell us it's all mans fault, but it isn't.  All this was predicted thousands of years ago, and no, it wasn't  Nostradamus either but, by someone else, we all tend to ignore.  Be seeing you later.

 

Well, hunker down, board up or leave if you can. Houses and cars and boats are just things. Drop over here if you can!

Vampiresbane #10 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 21:52

    Captain

  • Players
  • 24425 battles
  • 1,084
  • [MEDIC] MEDIC
  • Member since:
    06-27-2011

View PostVeevslav, on Sep 05 2017 - 20:44, said:

 

What a load of crap. Largest hurricane to make landfall was in 1935. 1926 for the costliest. 1900 for the deadliest.

To doom and gloom the global warming push is just fallacious trumpeting. Climate changes and cycles. It is what it does. Give us 2000 years of tracked weather and we still would not be able to see the whole picture.

 

To those at risk, stay safe and get safer. Leave a few traps for looters, preferably deadly traps. Get your stuff out of the basement and off the main level. Go stay with your aunt Francine in New Jersey or your brother Marcus in Chicago.

 

You say load of crap.  I say again, it doesn't matter what you think or believe.  Climate change is occurring and causing issues for people and cities alike.  Things that then cost money.

 

Here's a picture of the latest forest fires in the Northwest.  Most of those fires were started by people (Columbia Gorge fire started because some idiot thought it was a good idea to light fireworks near dry timber).  Only one to my knowledge was started by nature (lightning strike by Cle Elum).


 

See that dark purple?  That's hazardous level air.  That's dangerous to everyone, not just the elderly or children.  The slightly lighter purple?  Still pretty nasty stuff.  You don't want to breathing this stuff. 
 



Horribad_At_Tanks #11 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 22:43

    Major

  • Players
  • 2268 battles
  • 5,461
  • Member since:
    11-07-2012

View PostVampiresbane, on Sep 05 2017 - 15:52, said:

 

You say load of crap.  I say again, it doesn't matter what you think or believe.  Climate change is occurring and causing issues for people and cities alike.  Things that then cost money.

 

Here's a picture of the latest forest fires in the Northwest.  Most of those fires were started by people (Columbia Gorge fire started because some idiot thought it was a good idea to light fireworks near dry timber).  Only one to my knowledge was started by nature (lightning strike by Cle Elum).


 

See that dark purple?  That's hazardous level air.  That's dangerous to everyone, not just the elderly or children.  The slightly lighter purple?  Still pretty nasty stuff.  You don't want to breathing this stuff. 
 

 

That has nothing to do with so called global warming and everything to do with the lumber industry being gutted in those areas. Over time as forests grow and age burnable material collects and eventually there are fires that clear out the dead wood and weak trees to make room for the healthy new trees. This has happened for as long as forests have been around and loooooooong before man was around in his modern form. When lumber companies started organized collection of trees and the replanting of the collected areas that had the effect of removing the dead wood and weak trees with new growth and no major fires started because of all the natural breaks with old forest combined with new. Over the decades this allowed residential areas to form deep within what would be natural burn zones. Once you took away the lumber companies you took away the artificial clearing of the forests burnable material and welp here we are because nature will do as nature will do and if you were dumb enough to live in a historical burn zone then you didn't do your homework. Blame the tree huggers who wanted it all put back to nature and to remove mans 'destructive' influence. Well this is how nature cleans house. Quite messy and destructive compared to mans organized collection and management yes? ;)

NL_Celt #12 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 22:52

    Major

  • Players
  • 25310 battles
  • 5,358
  • Member since:
    10-05-2012

View PostHorribad_At_Tanks, on Sep 05 2017 - 18:13, said:

 

That has nothing to do with so called global warming and everything to do with the lumber industry being gutted in those areas. Over time as forests grow and age burnable material collects and eventually there are fires that clear out the dead wood and weak trees to make room for the healthy new trees. This has happened for as long as forests have been around and loooooooong before man was around in his modern form. When lumber companies started organized collection of trees and the replanting of the collected areas that had the effect of removing the dead wood and weak trees with new growth and no major fires started because of all the natural breaks with old forest combined with new. Over the decades this allowed residential areas to form deep within what would be natural burn zones. Once you took away the lumber companies you took away the artificial clearing of the forests burnable material and welp here we are because nature will do as nature will do and if you were dumb enough to live in a historical burn zone then you didn't do your homework. Blame the tree huggers who wanted it all put back to nature and to remove mans 'destructive' influence. Well this is how nature cleans house. Quite messy and destructive compared to mans organized collection and management yes? ;)

 

Another factor has been the speed with which small fires have been knocked down. Monitoring, helicopters and other equipment all make fighting fires far more effective than they were beforehand. Forest fires clear out all the dead wood, blow downs and other trash that accumulates naturally, but will tend to run out of easy fuel relatively quickly. When those fires are quickly killed other areas keep building up a mountain of dry wood trash. Then when conditions are right, high winds, extremely dry period, the forest explodes and it is virtually impossible for fire fighting to do anything about it. Montana a few years back, Dryden Ontario are examples of this.

dnaman #13 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 22:53

    First lieutenant

  • Players
  • 26104 battles
  • 698
  • [_EOS_] _EOS_
  • Member since:
    06-09-2013

View PostVampiresbane, on Sep 05 2017 - 13:52, said:

 

You say load of crap.  I say again, it doesn't matter what you think or believe.  Climate change is occurring and causing issues for people and cities alike.  Things that then cost money.

 

Here's a picture of the latest forest fires in the Northwest.  Most of those fires were started by people (Columbia Gorge fire started because some idiot thought it was a good idea to light fireworks near dry timber).  Only one to my knowledge was started by nature (lightning strike by Cle Elum).


 

See that dark purple?  That's hazardous level air.  That's dangerous to everyone, not just the elderly or children.  The slightly lighter purple?  Still pretty nasty stuff.  You don't want to breathing this stuff. 
 

 

Man caused fires are a heck of a lot different than global warming theory... secondly, the other poster is correct, why don't you look up facts?  We have not had a landfall in years until Harvey.  Yet you keep hearing all of the acolytes of the church of global warming saying how this, that, or the other is CLEAR PROOF when it is no such thing.  You don't change data to match your hypothesis (taking to the NOAA here), you change your hypothesis....

cloudwalkr #14 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 23:16

    Major

  • Players
  • 52210 battles
  • 3,718
  • [TYPE5] TYPE5
  • Member since:
    04-05-2011
Bottom line, if you are in a high risk area then i hope you come out the other side doing ok and alive with your friends and family.  Politics aside, it's all about surviving.

HOTA_CHATON #15 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 23:19

    Major

  • Players
  • 12200 battles
  • 12,601
  • [S-F] S-F
  • Member since:
    09-28-2011

View PostNL_Celt, on Sep 05 2017 - 14:52, said:

 

Well, hunker down, board up or leave if you can. Houses and cars and boats are just things. Drop over here if you can!

 

Wish I could, just like I wished all those in Texas could have left.  I work for the Sheriff, here and I am expected to stay but, my family can leave and most likely will, if it makes landfall here.

HOTA_CHATON #16 Posted Sep 05 2017 - 23:22

    Major

  • Players
  • 12200 battles
  • 12,601
  • [S-F] S-F
  • Member since:
    09-28-2011
It is a  proven and ignored fact, by the doomsayers, that one volcano eruption out strips what man can and does, to the environment. 

Ikanator #17 Posted Sep 06 2017 - 05:23

    Staff sergeant

  • -Players-
  • 7688 battles
  • 429
  • Member since:
    06-23-2016

View Postcloudwalkr, on Sep 05 2017 - 14:16, said:

Bottom line, if you are in a high risk area then i hope you come out the other side doing ok and alive with your friends and family.  Politics aside, it's all about surviving.

 

+1. What he said.

Vampiresbane #18 Posted Sep 06 2017 - 17:42

    Captain

  • Players
  • 24425 battles
  • 1,084
  • [MEDIC] MEDIC
  • Member since:
    06-27-2011

View PostHorribad_At_Tanks, on Sep 05 2017 - 21:43, said:

 

That has nothing to do with so called global warming and everything to do with the lumber industry being gutted in those areas. Over time as forests grow and age burnable material collects and eventually there are fires that clear out the dead wood and weak trees to make room for the healthy new trees. This has happened for as long as forests have been around and loooooooong before man was around in his modern form. When lumber companies started organized collection of trees and the replanting of the collected areas that had the effect of removing the dead wood and weak trees with new growth and no major fires started because of all the natural breaks with old forest combined with new. Over the decades this allowed residential areas to form deep within what would be natural burn zones. Once you took away the lumber companies you took away the artificial clearing of the forests burnable material and welp here we are because nature will do as nature will do and if you were dumb enough to live in a historical burn zone then you didn't do your homework. Blame the tree huggers who wanted it all put back to nature and to remove mans 'destructive' influence. Well this is how nature cleans house. Quite messy and destructive compared to mans organized collection and management yes? ;)

 

View Postdnaman, on Sep 05 2017 - 21:53, said:

 

Man caused fires are a heck of a lot different than global warming theory... secondly, the other poster is correct, why don't you look up facts?  We have not had a landfall in years until Harvey.  Yet you keep hearing all of the acolytes of the church of global warming saying how this, that, or the other is CLEAR PROOF when it is no such thing.  You don't change data to match your hypothesis (taking to the NOAA here), you change your hypothesis....

 

You two could be right except for...

We had an usually wet winter.

This means more rain.

Which then means more growth of burnable stuff (plants, trees, underbrush).

Which then means more fires once temperatures get hot.

 

I wish I could find a good timeline/heat map of how climate change is affecting snow in the Cascades.  So you'll have to just assume I'm not pulling this out of thin air.

 

There's two types of snow in mountains.  Permanent and Transitional.  Permanent snow is the snow in the mountains that is there ALL year long.  Transitional is, as you could guess, only there generally during fall, winter, and spring.  As average annual temperatures rise (we're not talking seasons, but year to year comparisons), the amount of permanent snow decreases, the elevation for snow also rises, and the area where it once was permanent snow becomes transitional snow.  You, me, your uncle Larry, your crazy brother Chris, we want more permanent snow because it's a "free" way to store water.  It provides water for drinking, bathing, irrigating, etc during the summer from snow melt.  With less permanent snow pack, you get less "stored" water and you get more droughts/floods.  You and I, as tax payers, also get to pay for more man-made storage units like reservoirs.

Here's some quick graphs to help show how rising temperatures affect snow in the mountains (and why this has anything to do with forest fires).  If more snow is "permanent", the release of snow melt occurs over a longer stretch of time.  It's a more "regular" release of water to you, to me, to our cities, but also to local forests.  Available food is typically the bottleneck to a species' population; for plants, its water.  If you release a ton of water in a short period time, a lot more plants will grow.  Likewise, if that source of water suddenly disappears, you suddenly have a LOT more plants that dry out and now are fuel for fires.


 

You'll have to forgive the fact I didn't type all of this down earlier.  I didn't know how you'd react to me stating the fires were started by mankind.  I had hoped that would be harder for folks to say, "it's just a normal everyday thing."


 

Even if climate change wasn't a thing, there's more humans on this planet than there were 200 years ago.  I imagine most of us can agree on that.  If there is a 1/100 chance for a village idiot to be born, that's more village idiots on this planet.  If every village idiot lights a forest fire, we should, in theory, have more forest fires today than 200 years ago.  You might say I'm defeating my own argument and you'd be partly right.  Only issue is that I'm saying that our population AND changing temperatures are multiplying the problem; they're synergistic.  I hope I've helped explain above why rising temperatures increases the amount of dried out plant life there is to burn.


 

I'll respond to the hurricane data retorts in a different post.  This one is already fairly long.


 



Darkbee2Bee #19 Posted Sep 06 2017 - 18:05

    Major

  • Players
  • 32065 battles
  • 3,112
  • [-FG-] -FG-
  • Member since:
    06-23-2013

View PostHOTA_CHATON, on Sep 05 2017 - 17:22, said:

It is a  proven and ignored fact, by the doomsayers, that one volcano eruption out strips what man can and does, to the environment. 

 

Which makes man's sodomizing of the planet totally okay and cool?

 

Anyway, no time for a political/moral debate; we're all human beings. Stay safe and good luck.



Vampiresbane #20 Posted Sep 06 2017 - 18:15

    Captain

  • Players
  • 24425 battles
  • 1,084
  • [MEDIC] MEDIC
  • Member since:
    06-27-2011

Ok now for the "lack of data" issue for Hurricanes.

You're right, there's hasn't been a ton of landfalling hurricanes.  You're right, most things in life are cyclical.  Water cycle, carbon cycle, nitrogen cycle, seasons, etc.  You're right I can't provide data for the last 2000 years.  But I'm sure you're also aware, that no one can.


Posted Image
 

You can see a general trend in both hurricanes and tropical storms increases over the last 40 years.  Sorry I couldn't find a graph that goes up to 2017.


https://i.imgur.com/RyYbjPp.png


 

Here's a graph done by NOAA.  So pretty sophisticated scientists where this is their job and their profession.  It also goes back further.  The moderate-duration storms is kinda a crap shoot, but short duration storms are happening more often.


https://i.imgur.com/M9yhgmT.png

Here's a graph by another group detailing severity of storms increasing.


 

You could still say this isn't the result of climate change.  Ok...possibly.  But what if it is?  What if there is a way to slow down or stop this from happening?  It could mean you save your house.  It could mean you save your daughter's life.  At the VERY minimum it could save you money.  (This is my short way of not going into all the nitty gritty details of proving climate change is happening....that's a long, long post.  Which all of us can research in our own time.  I suggest learning at school or the library.  Not the Internet.  Professor Google is only so smart.)


 

Remember, FEMA, is a federal agency.  Which means it's a federal funded group.  Those federal dollars come from us (assuming you're living in the US).


 

At any rate, hopefully that helps illustrate more of where I was coming from.  The changes are occurring folks.  It's impacting us, our health, our properties, and our lives.  Whether or not you believe in it.


 

(Having issues posting the graphs even on imgur, no idea why.  Post before worked fine.  At any rate, put the links into post.






1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users