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What's your Unwinnable Rate?

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WinningWithWarchild #1 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 09:02

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Howdy Tankers,

 

A few weeks ago, I installed my first mod (for any game) which included XVM.  Putting aside the discussions about mods and ruining the game, etc., I find that pre-battle lineups are mostly accurate for victory predictions. Although I don't alter my play for all the pretty colors, I find that the mod helps with decision making on where to go and who to platoon with, etc.

 

I believe that I am getting better at the game and I'm watching my winrate tick ever so slightly upward with each passing day.  Now, if you've ever seen one of my previous posts, you'd know that I don't hold much stock in winrates here in WoT because there are just too many factors beyond my control for me to put much stock in that statistic.  And although I do not know what my true winrate should be, I do know one statistic that is impossible to ignore...

 

My Unwinnable Rate ( "UR" ) - The percentage of battles where, even if you were QuickyBabyJesus reincarnated, you cannot win the match no matter what.

 

I've worked up the calculations and mine rests somewhere around 45%.  Let me know your UR when you get the chance.

 

Thank you for your time and attention.

 

WarChild


Edited by WinningWithWarchild, Sep 14 2017 - 09:03.


Scorpiany #2 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 09:04

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Generally, 25% of wins and 25% of losses will always be out of your control. The other 50% of the battles can be impacted to a degree. Realistically speaking however, you cannot consistently sway more than 40% of battles - Win Rates won't drop below 30% or above 70% without Platooning.

ArtofTanks #3 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 09:14

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View PostWinningWithWarchild, on Sep 14 2017 - 03:02, said:

 

I've worked up the calculations and mine rests somewhere around 45%.  Let me know your UR when you get the chance.

 

 

so if your recent winrate is 55.67% and you guess 45% are unwinnable for you, are you saying that you couldn't have possibly done anything else to win any of your losses?  Or in other words, you are always perfect?  I'm confused by this.

 

 


Edited by ArtofTanks, Sep 14 2017 - 09:21.


Redwave11 #4 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 09:55

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Generally i think about 15-20% of my games are unwinnable. This doesn't mean that i can get 80-90% win rate this just means that when i look back at the game i cannot find any course of action that I think could have led to victory.

 

EDIT: Also i would be curious to see your calculations, or at the very least a quick walk through of the process.


Edited by Redwave11, Sep 14 2017 - 10:06.


johnmadara #5 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 10:05

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View PostRedwave11, on Sep 14 2017 - 08:55, said:

Generally i think about 15-20% of my games are unwinnable. This doesn't mean that i can get 80-90% win rate this just means that when i look back at the game i cannot find any course of action that I think could have led to victory.

 

theres only so much you can do to carry 10+ baddies especially when they start shooting you for what ever reason

Rake #6 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 10:05

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Why are you trying to predict wins instead of just playing the damn game?  Maybe if people like you just worried about playing the game instead of "knowing" how it's going to end before it even starts we'd have better games overall.

Urdr #7 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 10:26

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UR? Unstable rate?

And quickybaby is not a jesus player of wot ...

And where do you get those numbers from Scorpiany, jesus quickybaby christ ...

Love :bush:



johnmadara #8 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 10:29

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View PostRake, on Sep 14 2017 - 09:05, said:

Maybe if people like you just worried about playing the game instead of "knowing" how it's going to end before it even starts we'd have better games overall.

you talk as if he loses more than you do



WinningWithWarchild #9 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 14:46

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View PostArtofTanks, on Sep 14 2017 - 02:14, said:

 

so if your recent winrate is 55.67% and you guess 45% are unwinnable for you, are you saying that you couldn't have possibly done anything else to win any of your losses?  Or in other words, you are always perfect?  I'm confused by this.

 

 

 

I'm saying that 45% of my games put me in a situation that is completely unwinnable.  If there was a stat that separated my high tier games versus the rest, I could calculate my exact percentage for you.

 

View PostRake, on Sep 14 2017 - 03:05, said:

Why are you trying to predict wins instead of just playing the damn game?  Maybe if people like you just worried about playing the game instead of "knowing" how it's going to end before it even starts we'd have better games overall.

 

There is a very popular YouTuber that would just play his game every day without trying to learn anything about where to go, how to play his tank, or any strategy whatsoever.  His winrate was somewhere around 43%, but he was having fun "just playing the dang game" each and every day.  Although I know that there are people who want to just log in and go shoot stuff, that is not how I operate.  I play every game to win (name: WinningWithWarchild) and in order to do so, quite frankly, I'm expected to carry more than just my share of the load.  Knowing where our potential weakspots are, and watching the minimap at the beginning of each battle tells me what I should do in order to help my team the best way that I can. [PS - that YouTuber started watching videos on how to play tanks, where to go, etc. and got MUCH better at playing the game and has closer to a 50% winrate now]

 

The best example that I can give you is my most recent battle on Highway.  I was in an HT No VI, and we had another one plus a KV-85.  The Reds had a T-29 and 3 KV-2s (all had good stats).  Our best players according to XVM were higher tier medium tanks.  I told the team that most of them needed to push the North and get to the Red Cap as soon as possible because our 3 heavies wouldn't be able to hold the town for very long.  Our team did just that and the match unfolded exactly as I thought it might.  Rather than play my normal aggressive heavy tank play, the other HT#6 and I played defensively in order to stall the Reds as long as we could before dying.  The plan, based in part on XVM data, worked.  So yeah, I use XVM as a guide and not a crutch.  Even if my team is all tomatoes, I never give up hope - I just use more meat shields than I normally would  ;)

 

 



WinningWithWarchild #10 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 18:07

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Here is a game that I just finished:

 

 

Please note that the Tier IV, A-20 tank with auto-loader CANNOT PEN the Pz IV H, Churchill 1, KV-1, or Matilda IV tanks AT ALL even with APCR.  It also requires special aiming with APCR to pen the Matilda, DW2, M3 Lee and  Pz IIIJ.

 

I love the tank and it is my favorite from Blitz, but I only play it until I get the 2x and then I move on.  Sometimes, it takes me 3-5 games just to get that first win.  Most, if not all, of those losses have me as low tier against Tier VI tanks - even a bad T-34-85M player can have a field day with me using that tank.  Oh well...



Redwave11 #11 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 21:21

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View PostWinningWithWarchild, on Sep 14 2017 - 23:46, said:

 

I'm saying that 45% of my games put me in a situation that is completely unwinnable.  If there was a stat that separated my high tier games versus the rest, I could calculate my exact percentage for you.

 

 

How do you calculate this?

 



Rake #12 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 22:23

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View PostWinningWithWarchild, on Sep 14 2017 - 08:46, said:

 

I'm saying that 45% of my games put me in a situation that is completely unwinnable.  If there was a stat that separated my high tier games versus the rest, I could calculate my exact percentage for you.

 

 

There is a very popular YouTuber that would just play his game every day without trying to learn anything about where to go, how to play his tank, or any strategy whatsoever.  His winrate was somewhere around 43%, but he was having fun "just playing the dang game" each and every day.  Although I know that there are people who want to just log in and go shoot stuff, that is not how I operate.  I play every game to win (name: WinningWithWarchild) and in order to do so, quite frankly, I'm expected to carry more than just my share of the load.  Knowing where our potential weakspots are, and watching the minimap at the beginning of each battle tells me what I should do in order to help my team the best way that I can. [PS - that YouTuber started watching videos on how to play tanks, where to go, etc. and got MUCH better at playing the game and has closer to a 50% winrate now]

 

The best example that I can give you is my most recent battle on Highway.  I was in an HT No VI, and we had another one plus a KV-85.  The Reds had a T-29 and 3 KV-2s (all had good stats).  Our best players according to XVM were higher tier medium tanks.  I told the team that most of them needed to push the North and get to the Red Cap as soon as possible because our 3 heavies wouldn't be able to hold the town for very long.  Our team did just that and the match unfolded exactly as I thought it might.  Rather than play my normal aggressive heavy tank play, the other HT#6 and I played defensively in order to stall the Reds as long as we could before dying.  The plan, based in part on XVM data, worked.  So yeah, I use XVM as a guide and not a crutch.  Even if my team is all tomatoes, I never give up hope - I just use more meat shields than I normally would  ;)

 

 

 

That has absolutely nothing to do with my comment, genius.

Rake #13 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 22:25

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View Postjohnmadara, on Sep 14 2017 - 04:29, said:

you talk as if he loses more than you do

 

And he'd win even more if he stopped trying to predict wins.

WinningWithWarchild #14 Posted Sep 14 2017 - 23:45

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View PostRedwave11, on Sep 14 2017 - 14:21, said:

 

How do you calculate this?

 

 

Going through over 2,200 screenshots.

 

View PostRake, on Sep 14 2017 - 15:23, said:

 

That has absolutely nothing to do with my comment, genius.

 

Me thinks you ain't too bright... :confused:



Redwave11 #15 Posted Sep 15 2017 - 00:56

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View PostWinningWithWarchild, on Sep 15 2017 - 08:45, said:

 

Going through over 2,200 screenshots.

 

 

Me thinks you ain't too bright... :confused:

 

Yes, but what do you look for in the screenshots?

 

XVM chance to win?

PR of the top performing players?

Tank Types on each team?

No. Of platoons/clan players on each team?

 

Saying you 'look at screenshots' delivers absolutely no information about how you arrive at what seems to be a completely arbitrary number.



ArtofTanks #16 Posted Sep 15 2017 - 06:15

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Spoiler

You call it unwinnable because you can't pen anything when you've chosen to use a gun with low pen.  This seems like it's kind of your fault.



Rake #17 Posted Sep 15 2017 - 10:31

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View PostWinningWithWarchild, on Sep 14 2017 - 17:45, said:

 

Going through over 2,200 screenshots.

 

 

Me thinks you ain't too bright... :confused:

 

Really?  I'm the one who's not too bright?  YOU claim your unwinnable rate is 45%, yet your recent win rate is 56%.   So, according to YOU, 45% of your games are unwinnable under any circumstances, yet you only lose 44% of your games to begin with, many of which could likely go either way.  But I'm the one who's not too bright.

 

That's before we even get into the question of whether your post is about predicting wins or whether it's using the information to develop your strategy for the game, which are far different things.



WinningWithWarchild #18 Posted Sep 15 2017 - 10:37

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View PostRedwave11, on Sep 14 2017 - 17:56, said:

 

Yes, but what do you look for in the screenshots?

 

XVM chance to win?

PR of the top performing players?

Tank Types on each team?

No. Of platoons/clan players on each team?

 

Saying you 'look at screenshots' delivers absolutely no information about how you arrive at what seems to be a completely arbitrary number.

 

Tier level, Tank Type & XVM/Player list.

 

View PostArtofTanks, on Sep 14 2017 - 23:15, said:

Spoiler

You call it unwinnable because you can't pen anything when you've chosen to use a gun with low pen.  This seems like it's kind of your fault.

 

Yeah.  If I choose to play arty and my team fails horribly and dies, you're right it's all my fault.  Yet, I count that as unwinnable.



WinningWithWarchild #19 Posted Sep 15 2017 - 10:45

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View PostRake, on Sep 15 2017 - 03:31, said:

 

Really?  I'm the one who's not too bright?  YOU claim your unwinnable rate is 45%, yet your recent win rate is 56%.   So, according to YOU, 45% of your games are unwinnable under any circumstances, yet you only lose 44% of your games to begin with, many of which could likely go either way.  But I'm the one who's not too bright.

 

 

Yes, but that's besides the point.  I said my UR is "around" 45%. I know math might be a tough one for you, but 1% off of 45 is 44.  Additionally, I've only kept around 2,300 screenshots, so there are around a 1,000 more that I don't have to base my estimate off of.  Of the 2,300, around 45% are games where I couldn't win no matter what happened.  It might be my tier, my tank choice, whatever.  If you're telling me 100% of your games are winnable, good for you man.  For the rest of us, there is an unwinnable % of games - some say it's 25%.  I say mine is around 45%.



ShutUp_Karl #20 Posted Sep 15 2017 - 10:53

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View PostRake, on Sep 14 2017 - 04:05, said:

Why are you trying to predict wins instead of just playing the damn game?  Maybe if people like you just worried about playing the game instead of "knowing" how it's going to end before it even starts we'd have better games overall.

 

 

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Edited by ShutUp_Karl, Sep 15 2017 - 10:53.






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