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The Tesla trainwreck

TSLA Disaster Musk Deathwatch #YOLO EVs Electric vehicles Quality Safety

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120mm_he #21 Posted Oct 11 2017 - 18:28

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Tesla will either get the kinks worked out or fail. As for me I dunno about riding around in a car with a huge battery made out of these that can go boom just by being crushed.

 



Red_Ensign #22 Posted Oct 11 2017 - 18:31

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doesn't bieber drive a tesla?  I'm okay with fatal safety defects.

SpitYoYoMafia #23 Posted Oct 11 2017 - 19:06

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View PostRed_Ensign, on Oct 11 2017 - 09:31, said:

doesn't bieber drive a tesla?  I'm okay with fatal safety defects.

 

+1

indoctrinated #24 Posted Oct 11 2017 - 22:22

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View PostSpitYoYoMafia, on Oct 11 2017 - 11:52, said:

 

Wow are you serious? Prototyping any type of new design is almost a #1 priority especially when we are talking about delivering goods and services to the public that could potentially harm them.

 

I looked at the link and those guys are insane. I'll be surprised if they don't fall flat on their [edited]

Any sane person who actually looks into Tesla would immediately write them off after learning these kinds of things. I'm even surprised the Tesla Defense Force hasn't come in here to attack me as it is.

View Post120mm_he, on Oct 11 2017 - 13:28, said:

Tesla will either get the kinks worked out or fail. As for me I dunno about riding around in a car with a huge battery made out of these that can go boom just by being crushed.

 

My bet? Tesla fails within 24-36 months unless people continue to have "faith" in Tesla. The Model 3 is guaranteed to be a nightmare bedeviled with quality issues.
 

View PostRed_Ensign, on Oct 11 2017 - 13:31, said:

doesn't bieber drive a tesla?  I'm okay with fatal safety defects.

Lol.



indoctrinated #25 Posted Oct 12 2017 - 02:37

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View PostSpitYoYoMafia, on Oct 10 2017 - 09:47, said:

I think that I'm starting to see a problem here. The companies are releasing products before they are perfected for public consumption. In doing do their first products usually have defects for the first set (s) of models and they'd rather sell then fix the issues with them than to put them back on the assembly line or simply wait until they can proficiently produce them.

 

I don't believe that this is a QA issue anymore. Big wigs are likely pushing for this. But is it worth your reputation? What happens if there is a structural failure? What if something that should never have happened actually happens? How do you do damage control for these events? Why even take the risk in the first place?

 

I can somewhat understand their perspective but it's very difficult to accept tarnishing a good reputation and risking law suits for this.

 

Expanding upon this:
Honda's been suffering a crazy amount of quality problems in their vehicles that began since Takanobu Ito became President of Honda in 2010.

larryr

 My friends that are Honda Certified Mechanics all are telling me to avoid the new Hondas - they are problems waiting to happen. Bunches of engine and transmission problems - lots of excess oil burning in all models. One mechanic told me he is doing 2 ring jobs for oil burning every day and he is tired of having to do that and he is not the only mechanic doing ring jobs and has to fight to get the special tool to insert the pistons back into the engine. He also has a 2015 CR-V waiting for a new transmission after less than 3000 miles and a 2015 Civic that uses a quart of oil every fill up and has less than 5000 miles - he is waiting for parts for both. He has a couple of Pilots with excess oil burning that he is waiting for corporate Honda to OK to fix and a Ridgeline that has compression problem at 30,000 miles that is also parked waiting for airbag parts

 For now Honda seems to be content with expensive warranty repairs on their defective products (the Honda K series 4-cyl and J-series 6-cyl seem to be poor designs in general). If this keeps going on Honda's reputation is going to crater. But back to Tesla.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2017/03/09/the-future-tesla-model-3-buyer-drives-a-toyota-and-thats-a-huge-problem/#3cccb3d11680

Block Quote

 The typical person who's plunked down a $1,000 deposit for a Model 3 currently drives a Toyota, not a BMW, the study found. Those customers are looking to switch because they think they can finally afford cutting-edge technology previously limited to the rich and famous. Tesla, however, may be ill able to afford the customers it's attracting in droves: Toyota owners are among the most demanding, and they will be confronted with a brand notorious for its lack of reliability. Sound the collision alarm.
My research and blogging partner Ed Niedermeyer has obtained the study on the condition that the OEM is not disclosed. Old style automakers rarely talk about the competition in public. Ed wrote about the study first in the Dailykanban industry blog he and I run jointly.

I believe current Tesla customers (high income, net worth) are more tolerant of defects and poor reliability. But a Toyota level customer? NOPE!

Tesla repairs/maintenance don't come cheap either and you can't DIY any repairs/maintenance or have independent shops service your Tesla. With the disastrous level of quality coming out of Honda (who did have a legitimately earned reputation for quality vehicles from the 80s and 90s), what can we expect from Tesla?



indoctrinated #26 Posted Oct 15 2017 - 15:34

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What is going on here?
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/10/13/4819750/

Block Quote

 

In multiple interviews, former and current employees told this news organization little or no warning preceded the dismissals. The workers interviewed include trained engineers working on vehicle design and production, a supervisor and factory employees.

Workers estimated between 400 and 700 employees have been fired. Tesla refused to say how many employees were let go, although the company expects employee turnover to be similar to last year’s attrition.

 Why layoff hundreds of workers without any notice just as they are trying to ramp-up production of the new Model 3? It makes no sense. Tesla's goals certainly are ambitious:

Block Quote

 Musk has told investors the company is focused on Model 3 production and expects to eventually build 10,000 cars a week. The manufacturing will become highly automated, but Musk told investors during the early ramp up he expected high overtime costs.

 
http://corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+north+america+production+2016.htm
TMMK (Toyota Motor Manufacturing Kentucky) produced 500,766 vehicles in 2016 or about 9630 vehicles per week.
http://www.al.com/business/index.ssf/2016/12/2016_shaping_up_as_record_prod.html
HMA (Honda Manufacturing Alabama) produced 369,538 vehicles in 2016- 7110~ vehicles per week.
Consider the fact that Tesla wants to essentially match the numbers produced by these two well established, experienced automakers and they are going to be in for a wild ride.

Edit: A helpful graphic to illustrate what Tesla's trying to do


Edited by indoctrinated, Oct 15 2017 - 15:47.


SpitYoYoMafia #27 Posted Oct 15 2017 - 17:44

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View Postindoctrinated, on Oct 15 2017 - 06:34, said:

What is going on here?
http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/10/13/4819750/

 Why layoff hundreds of workers without any notice just as they are trying to ramp-up production of the new Model 3? It makes no sense. Tesla's goals certainly are ambitious:

 
http://corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+north+america+production+2016.htm
TMMK (Toyota Motor Manufacturing Kentucky) produced 500,766 vehicles in 2016 or about 9630 vehicles per week.
http://www.al.com/business/index.ssf/2016/12/2016_shaping_up_as_record_prod.html
HMA (Honda Manufacturing Alabama) produced 369,538 vehicles in 2016- 7110~ vehicles per week.
Consider the fact that Tesla wants to essentially match the numbers produced by these two well established, experienced automakers and they are going to be in for a wild ride.

Edit: A helpful graphic to illustrate what Tesla's trying to do

 

It's completely unreasonable to ask that amount of product when you haven't been producing anywhere near that amount. . .

indoctrinated #28 Posted Oct 15 2017 - 18:06

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View PostSpitYoYoMafia, on Oct 15 2017 - 12:44, said:

 

It's completely unreasonable to ask that amount of product when you haven't been producing anywhere near that amount. . .

To put this into perspective- TMMK started producing cars in May 1988 and Honda Alabama started operations in November 2001. Tesla's production goals are absolutely insane considering it took Toyota and Honda many years to reach these levels.
Edit: Also expect some more exciting drama once the new electric Semi Truck (Class 7/8?) from Tesla also flops.


Edited by indoctrinated, Oct 15 2017 - 18:36.


SpitYoYoMafia #29 Posted Oct 15 2017 - 19:10

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View Postindoctrinated, on Oct 15 2017 - 09:06, said:

To put this into perspective- TMMK started producing cars in May 1988 and Honda Alabama started operations in November 2001. Tesla's production goals are absolutely insane considering it took Toyota and Honda many years to reach these levels.
Edit: Also expect some more exciting drama once the new electric Semi Truck (Class 7/8?) from Tesla also flops.

 

They have some really good designs but they haven't properly tested them at all, this is where they will fall flat on their face. 

 

Their prices are not cheap while they keep trying to claim that they are, the average production car is from 15k to 25k, 30k is on the higher end and most people can't afford that, some say that it pays for itself in gas but I don't remember gas costing a fortune right now either and for people who drive a lot it's not really an option for them because there aren't enough charging stations and it would take a long time to charge.

 

Overall electric cars are not the future right now and I have no idea why some people keep saying that they are with all the draw backs that they have



indoctrinated #30 Posted Oct 15 2017 - 23:52

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View PostSpitYoYoMafia, on Oct 15 2017 - 14:10, said:

 

They have some really good designs but they haven't properly tested them at all, this is where they will fall flat on their face. 

 

Their prices are not cheap while they keep trying to claim that they are, the average production car is from 15k to 25k, 30k is on the higher end and most people can't afford that, some say that it pays for itself in gas but I don't remember gas costing a fortune right now either and for people who drive a lot it's not really an option for them because there aren't enough charging stations and it would take a long time to charge.

 

Overall electric cars are not the future right now and I have no idea why some people keep saying that they are with all the draw backs that they have

Tesla's current S and X models are still plagued with hilarious problems like mold growth on the interior and a very high proportion of them that may require drive-motor replacements.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101153_two-thirds-of-earliest-tesla-drive-trains-to-fail-in-60000-miles-owner-data-suggests

Really I can't take Tesla seriously. If this had happened to a true mass-market vehicle their reputation would be in the toilet and this nonsense wouldn't be tolerated.
A dirty secret of these cars is the charging times are still very long. Current electric vehicles to my knowledge require hours to charge whereas a normal car can be refilled in a matter of minutes. When the battery wears out you're gonna pay crazy sums of money to replace them because the only source of spare parts/repairs/maintenance on your Tesla is Tesla themselves. No aftermarket parts.
https://forums.tesla.com/en_CA/forum/forums/tesla-model-s-85kw-battery-replacement-cost

Block Quote

 I've asked the Tesla rep several times regarding the replacement cost of a Model S battery . . . he keeps saying $12,000 . . . which IMHO is more than reasonable. However, I've noticed on various other posts that the battery cost was more like 1/2 the cost the the car.

Yes the full price of the battery pack now is $45,000.

 45,000$ FOR A BATTERY PACK?

I don't see electric cars working out to be brutally honest. Do some investigation into the profit margins of most new cars- it's very low (I've heard figures of an industry-wide average of a pathetic 3% and that includes cash-cow products like pickup trucks in the mix). Electric cars like the Leaf, Bolt, etc etc are most likely money losers, breaking even at best.
IMO fuel-cell vehicles are worth investigating.

SpitYoYoMafia #31 Posted Oct 16 2017 - 01:47

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Also don't the electric cars burn their parts out really really easily? I heard that you have to replace them constantly.

indoctrinated #32 Posted Oct 16 2017 - 02:03

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View PostSpitYoYoMafia, on Oct 15 2017 - 20:47, said:

Also don't the electric cars burn their parts out really really easily? I heard that you have to replace them constantly.

 

I think the most susceptible components thus far are the electrical drive unit and the battery pack. By the way- another dirty secret about these cars is the battery pack adds a LOT of weight. The lightest Tesla Model S weighs 4300 lbs, and it can climb all the way up to nearly 5000 lbs (!). The X SUV is even more insane. It starts at over 5000 lbs and climbs to 5500+ lbs (!!).
For comparison the previous generation LS460 with a traditional NA / DI 4.6 V8 is about 4200-4300 lbs. It's much more luxurious and of a much higher quality than any Tesla.

The Model X actually weighs more than an F-150 pickup truck- and it's a much more durable, just as luxurious (if not more so) and more capable vehicle than it. The mammoth weight of the cars is probably putting unnecessary strain on the electric motors/inverter.
Edit: fixed some mistakes

SpitYoYoMafia #33 Posted Oct 16 2017 - 02:37

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Yea I just learned recently that the minimum pounds for a battery pack is 2000 pounds, that's just the refined, extremely expensive versions.

 

The weight is definitely a turn off and is an issue that needs to be addressed to massively improve efficiency.


Edited by SpitYoYoMafia, Oct 16 2017 - 02:38.


indoctrinated #34 Posted Oct 16 2017 - 23:08

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If you thought these batteries are heavy check out the ones on the prototype mule for the semi-truck that Tesla is attempting to build:

That's what, 10,000 lbs or more? Don't forget that these Class 8 trucks need to be more reliable and the motors are going to be under even more stress accelerating and braking a machine of this size. GVWR (max weight of the vehicle, fuel, cargo, engines, people, etc but trailers excluded) of a Class 8 truck is 33,000 lbs and over.

SpitYoYoMafia #35 Posted Oct 17 2017 - 01:42

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This just sounds like a bad idea, sure a general purpose truck that just moves goods in town would be okay but a semi? Uuuuhhh, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you that it's probably not a good idea and just using a basic mechanical system that handles stress well is better.

indoctrinated #36 Posted Oct 17 2017 - 02:01

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View PostSpitYoYoMafia, on Oct 16 2017 - 20:42, said:

This just sounds like a bad idea, sure a general purpose truck that just moves goods in town would be okay but a semi? Uuuuhhh, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you that it's probably not a good idea and just using a basic mechanical system that handles stress well is better.

Here's two competitors (bottom one is a recent spy shot of the Tesla semi).


For funsies here's a comparison to the "electric" truck concept by Cummins.

http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1112408_cummins-beats-tesla-to-electric-semi-truck

Block Quote

 

Dubbed the Urban Hauler Tractor, the concept is a fully electric class 7 truck with a maximum payload of 44,000 pounds (GVWR?). The truck itself weighs 18,000 pounds, with Cummins explaining that the weight of the electric powertrain including the battery is similar to that of a 12.0-liter diesel engine, plus the emissions treatment, transmission and fuel tank components conventional trucks also pack.

The battery’s capacity is 140 kilowatt-hours, which is enough for about 100 miles of range. This makes the truck suitable only for local deliveries. Cummins says an extended-range version is also being developed. It will have a 300-mile range thanks to a diesel engine serving as the range extender. According to reports, Tesla’s truck will have a range between 200 and 300 miles.

So even this pure-electric truck built by Cummins only gets about 100 miles  worth of range. In order to reach Tesla's goal of 200-300 miles worth of range they had to add a diesel engine to act as an electric generator. Great. They are looking at adding solar panels to the truck but I doubt it'd do very much at all given how bad solar electricity is.



SpitYoYoMafia #37 Posted Oct 17 2017 - 02:14

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View Postindoctrinated, on Oct 16 2017 - 17:01, said:

Here's two competitors (bottom one is a recent spy shot of the Tesla semi).


For funsies here's a comparison to the "electric" truck concept by Cummins.

http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1112408_cummins-beats-tesla-to-electric-semi-truck

So even this pure-electric truck built by Cummins only gets about 100 miles  worth of range. In order to reach Tesla's goal of 200-300 miles worth of range they had to add a diesel engine to act as an electric generator. Great. They are looking at adding solar panels to the truck but I doubt it'd do very much at all given how bad solar electricity is.

 

You should tell that to some other people I was just talking to on youtube. They think that the USA can use 1% of the sahara desert to get all the energy that we need.

 

If that was true we would have done that a looooonnnngggggggg time ago.

 

They also are praising china for switching over to using more electric products when they are one of the worst polluters of the world. Great example of showing green energy when they aren't even half as green as the US because they are that polluted.

 

I don't even think I could step foot in china because pollution makes me sick and makes me puke, I'd probably legitimately die a horrible death choking on my own puke.



indoctrinated #38 Posted Oct 17 2017 - 02:43

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View PostSpitYoYoMafia, on Oct 16 2017 - 21:14, said:

 

You should tell that to some other people I was just talking to on youtube. They think that the USA can use 1% of the sahara desert to get all the energy that we need.

 

If that was true we would have done that a looooonnnngggggggg time ago.

 

They also are praising china for switching over to using more electric products when they are one of the worst polluters of the world. Great example of showing green energy when they aren't even half as green as the US because they are that polluted.

 

I don't even think I could step foot in china because pollution makes me sick and makes me puke, I'd probably legitimately die a horrible death choking on my own puke.

Solar power is a huge fail. Consider the Nissan Leaf. A 2016 Leaf has a 30,000 watt-hour battery to achieve an EPA range of about 107 miles. This means it requires 280 watt-hours to travel one mile.
If we use the solar panels mounted on the roof of the Prius Prime as a comparison:
https://thinkprogress.org/prius-solar-roof-breakthrough-2b929f467061/

Block Quote

 But improvements in solar efficiency combined with advanced design and “technologies to laminate three-dimensional curved glass” have allowed a high output — some 180 watts, which is more than triple the output of the previous solar roof.

 Congrats! Now you only need about one and a half hours just to travel one mile using a Nissan Leaf!



indoctrinated #39 Posted Oct 18 2017 - 00:05

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View PostSpitYoYoMafia, on Oct 16 2017 - 21:14, said:

 

They also are praising china for switching over to using more electric products when they are one of the worst polluters of the world. Great example of showing green energy when they aren't even half as green as the US because they are that polluted.

 

I don't even think I could step foot in china because pollution makes me sick and makes me puke, I'd probably legitimately die a horrible death choking on my own puke.

On that topic- China's pollution problem is crazy.
https://en.wikipedia..._the_Dome_(film)
First time I've heard of a baby needing to undergo surgery soon after birth to remove a tumour.

Here's some more LOLz out of Tesla:

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2017/06/tesla-model-s-gas-pedal-snaps-off-driver-tried-showing-off-launch-mode/

Tesla sold a car with a gas pedal that actually breaks! Toyota IIRC also uses a similar type of gas pedal yet I doubt you'll see recently bought/new Toyotas/Lexus with breaking gas pedals.

Edited by indoctrinated, Oct 18 2017 - 00:08.


SpitYoYoMafia #40 Posted Oct 18 2017 - 00:09

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View Postindoctrinated, on Oct 17 2017 - 15:05, said:

On that topic- China's pollution problem is crazy.
https://en.wikipedia..._the_Dome_(film)
First time I've heard of a baby needing to undergo surgery soon after birth to remove a tumour.

Here's some more LOLz out of Tesla:

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2017/06/tesla-model-s-gas-pedal-snaps-off-driver-tried-showing-off-launch-mode/

Tesla sold a car with a gas pedal that actually breaks! Toyota IIRC also uses a similar type of gas pedal yet I doubt you'll see recently bought/new Toyotas/Lexus with breaking gas pedals.

 

Yea I was telling that dude that China is the WORST example that you could use to call the future a "greener" one so to speak

 

Also maybe they switched the gas and the "break" pedals around :trollface:

 

btw your link returned null, use this one https://en.wikipedia..._the_Dome_(film)

 

edit: nevermind the link is bugged lol

 

also they should have thought about what they made the brake pedal out of from the get go, the vehicles are already heavy, might as well make it out of metal


Edited by SpitYoYoMafia, Oct 18 2017 - 00:15.





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