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XVM isn't all bad.

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24_inch_pythons #1 Posted Apr 22 2018 - 23:04

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 It can be a way to ground yourself in a little reality, a way to see that which cannot be seen. Not many people use it that way, probably, but maybe more should start. Here's what I mean. I know I am a better than average player, meaning that at the very least I as an individual increase my team's chance to win. So, if I see that I'm on team after team after team after team that has a less than 50% chance to win I know that the MM is out to get me today. But what to do? The worst is the people who suicide or yolo or AFK. If you are pulling up your team's chance to win and you take yourself out you are guaranteeing a loss. In other words if XVM says you have a 40% chance to win the game and you suicide you aren't going to win that battle 40 of 100 times, maybe gonna win it say 20 of 100 times instead. So you're just throwing away 20 wins out of 100 games you play. Instead play your best to try and beat the odds then enjoy the satisfaction when you do. That's where XVM can be used positively. I can see that the teams today were horrible, just horrible. Nine games played only two of them had a better than 50% chance to win, overall I should have had a 44% win rate but my actual win rate was 56%. I can see from XVM that I beat the odds and I can feel good about that. So, instead of throwing your hands up and quitting because XVM said your team is terrible, use XVM to see how much you can beat the odds by today.

 

Here's my games played today, all in the HWK 12

 

42%   L
37%   L
44% W
44% W
34%   L
55% W
47%   L
45% W
52% W


Blackhorse_One_ #2 Posted Apr 22 2018 - 23:09

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I never throw my hands up until I see where all the little steel cockroaches are gonna run to ...

HOTA_CHATON #3 Posted Apr 22 2018 - 23:36

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This game is reality?  WOW, there are some issues here.

24_inch_pythons #4 Posted Apr 22 2018 - 23:41

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View PostHOTA_CHATON, on Apr 22 2018 - 16:36, said:

This game is reality?  WOW, there are some issues here.

 

 If you only hallucinate playing the game I'd say you have issues, yes.

nuclearguy931 #5 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 00:10

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XVM + arty makes for a fun evening of WoT.

KeepYourselfSafe_xD #6 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 00:23

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Probably because it's only a % COW instead of a guaranteed certainty? lmbo 
You're bad if you rely on XVM to decide or even have an impact on your game's outcome

 



24_inch_pythons #7 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 00:28

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View PostKeepYourselfSafe_xD, on Apr 22 2018 - 17:23, said:

Probably because it's only a % COW insteincapabled of a guaranteed certainty? lmbo 
You're bad if you rely on XVM to decide or even have an impact on your game's outcome

 

 

 Do you just repeat everything you read? Or do you not read before you comment? Or are you Incabable of understanding what you read?

Numerius_Titurius_Sophus #8 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 00:28

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I once kept track of about 200 games and ran a correlation with W/L.  It was about .75 ish IIRC...a strong but not infallible predictor.

Chameleon_1999 #9 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 17:51

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View Post24_inch_pythons, on Apr 22 2018 - 23:04, said:

 It can be a way to ground yourself in a little reality, a way to see that which cannot be seen. Not many people use it that way, probably, but maybe more should start. Here's what I mean. I know I am a better than average player, meaning that at the very least I as an individual increase my team's chance to win. So, if I see that I'm on team after team after team after team that has a less than 50% chance to win I know that the MM is out to get me today. But what to do? The worst is the people who suicide or yolo or AFK. If you are pulling up your team's chance to win and you take yourself out you are guaranteeing a loss. In other words if XVM says you have a 40% chance to win the game and you suicide you aren't going to win that battle 40 of 100 times, maybe gonna win it say 20 of 100 times instead. So you're just throwing away 20 wins out of 100 games you play. Instead play your best to try and beat the odds then enjoy the satisfaction when you do. That's where XVM can be used positively. I can see that the teams today were horrible, just horrible. Nine games played only two of them had a better than 50% chance to win, overall I should have had a 44% win rate but my actual win rate was 56%. I can see from XVM that I beat the odds and I can feel good about that. So, instead of throwing your hands up and quitting because XVM said your team is terrible, use XVM to see how much you can beat the odds by today.

 

Here's my games played today, all in the HWK 12

 

42%   L
37%   L
44% W
44% W
34%   L
55% W
47%   L
45% W
52% W

 

Nawh. What you do is what a (two mark/6500PR) Wolverine did in a tier 6 battle today.

 

When you see it's 37%, as above, you camp at back with the arty and watch the map. Find out where the low tier/lesser quality players are. Then near the end of the battle, you take your Wolvie, go to the side where the low teir/low quality/damaged enemy tanks are coming and you knock out 4 of them for 990 damage and survive while the other side caps out.

 

This way, while it was unlikely to get the win, you score 4 kills with 990 damage, using cheap shells, taking minimal damage, and surviving. Your (fake) stats go thru the roof.   


Edited by Voltare_2014, Apr 23 2018 - 17:59.


Sgt__Guffy #10 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 17:54

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XVM is an abomination and should be banned from the game along with all other modifiers. Modifiers are not required to play the game!

Chameleon_1999 #11 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 17:58

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View PostSgt__Guffy, on Apr 23 2018 - 17:54, said:

XVM is an abomination and should be banned from the game along with all other modifiers. Modifiers are not required to play the game!

 

Excellent and appropriate word for it: Abomination.

24cups #12 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 18:00

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If they would incorporate all the garage parts into the client I wouldn't use XVM.
I like the ease of crew and equipment moving especially if you have to change something quickly for a team battle.

Flarvin #13 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 18:05

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View PostNumerius_Titurius_Sophus, on Apr 22 2018 - 18:28, said:

I once kept track of about 200 games and ran a correlation with W/L.  It was about .75 ish IIRC...a strong but not infallible predictor.

 

But the win chance is not a predictor. It does not state who will win. It merely states the likelihood each team has to win, based on some limited data. 



Unicorn_ #14 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 18:36

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View Post24cups, on Apr 23 2018 - 18:00, said:

If they would incorporate all the garage parts into the client I wouldn't use XVM.
I like the ease of crew and equipment moving especially if you have to change something quickly for a team battle.

 

That's what has been happening over the years. XVM features has been slowly integrated into the game.

As far as XVM goes in terms of player and team rating, it's helpful information if you use it wisely. It lets you know who are strong threats and which players are reliable. It also tells you how to play the match. If you are high tier with a lot of worse players, MM expects you to carry. Yes, a lot of matches are skewed with the predicted outcome becoming true. But, you do get somewhat balanced matches every so often so if you see that with XVM, make the most of your performance.

24_inch_pythons #15 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 20:08

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View PostFlarvin, on Apr 23 2018 - 11:05, said:

 

But the win chance is not a predictor. It does not state who will win. It merely states the likelihood each team has to win, based on some limited data. 

 

​^^^^^

Exactly, if XVM says you have a 40% chance to win that simply means that if you played that exact same battle 100 times you would win approximately 40 of those 100 games and you would lose approximately 60 of those 100 games with zero way of knowing before hand whether this particular battle would be one of the 40 wins or one of the 60 losses.



Says #16 Posted Apr 23 2018 - 20:19

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For every 1 player who uses the information in XVM logically there are 100 that will type "LOSS" 5 seconds into the countdown.  Then go AFK or drive off a cliff.  IMO the game is 100x more enjoyable without it.

Numerius_Titurius_Sophus #17 Posted Apr 24 2018 - 17:40

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View PostFlarvin, on Apr 23 2018 - 18:05, said:

 

But the win chance is not a predictor. It does not state who will win. It merely states the likelihood each team has to win, based on some limited data. 

 

Which is why you cannot possibly get a 1 correlation.  .75 correlation for the win chance is a strong but not infallible predictor.

 

edit...wait...you said it is NOT a predictor?  Well, it obviously IS a predictor if the correlation is high enough.  Do you know what a 'predictor' is?  http://statisticsbyj...ctor-variables/


Edited by Numerius_Titurius_Sophus, Apr 24 2018 - 17:43.


BEASTY_BUCKEYE #18 Posted Apr 24 2018 - 18:05

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View PostSgt__Guffy, on Apr 23 2018 - 16:54, said:

XVM is an abomination and should be banned from the game along with all other modifiers. Modifiers are not required to play the game!

 

I second that.  XVM is cancer. To many people see the numbers and don't do what they are suppose to do in battle.  And i'm not just talking about  the noobs.  And usually it leads to a loss. Where as if they just tried it might of been a win.  Plus it creates a toxic and negative environment in the chat as well at the beginning of battles where you get. ( All gg its a loss) ( Another S**t team again) ( Why even bother its another loss because this team sucks) I see this every 4th or 5th battle. So yes cancer


Edited by BEASTY_BUCKEYE, Apr 24 2018 - 18:23.


Flarvin #19 Posted Apr 24 2018 - 19:43

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View PostNumerius_Titurius_Sophus, on Apr 24 2018 - 11:40, said:

 

Which is why you cannot possibly get a 1 correlation.  .75 correlation for the win chance is a strong but not infallible predictor.

 

edit...wait...you said it is NOT a predictor?  Well, it obviously IS a predictor if the correlation is high enough.  Do you know what a 'predictor' is?  http://statisticsbyj...ctor-variables/

 

What? Predictor variables? 

 

What does independent variables have to do with this?

 

The win chance does not tell who will win. It states the estimated odds of winning for each team. 

 

 



Numerius_Titurius_Sophus #20 Posted Apr 24 2018 - 19:54

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View PostFlarvin, on Apr 24 2018 - 19:43, said:

 

What? Predictor variables? 

 

What does independent variables have to do with this?

 

The win chance does not tell who will win. It states the estimated odds of winning for each team. 

 

 

 

Well, it is trivial but if you won or loss that would be the dependent.  Chance to win would be a predictor (independent).  It is trivial because we are not trying to build a model and only have one predictor.  If you wanted to actually try to build a model and we had the info, this gets somewhat into the realm of what I did for 25 years.  Going down that path is too far because all I am saying is that CTW is a decent predictor.

Edited by Numerius_Titurius_Sophus, Apr 24 2018 - 19:55.






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