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What a Rigged Joke this Game is at Times


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Pipinghot #161 Posted May 02 2018 - 18:49

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View PostCognitive_Dissonance, on May 02 2018 - 10:23, said:

What would be the faults of such a system based on PR vs. RNG used as a lumping variable based on WR over some analyzed time frame?

The most glaring fault is that it's unnecessary. Like completely, totally, entirely, suuuuper unnecessary.

 

Everything you've described can be accomplished by a game that put 15 people on each team and that uses a random MM which completely ignores skill.

 

1) Team size

 

The simple fact that we have 15 people on a team automatically compresses the bell curve of win rates, by a lot. It's extremely difficult to have win rates less than 40% or more than 60%. This is true in any game or sport, the larger teams are the harder it is to have extreme win rates, either good or bad, because the influence of the individual player is diluted by being on a large team. You could go afk for every single battle and you would still end up with about a 40% Win Rate, and the root cause is that we have 15 people per team, no matter how bad you are teams will carry you to victory about 40% of the time. Conversely, no matter how good you are the force created by having 15 person teams will prevent you from having a 100% Win Rate. The very best players in the game, people who play on the level of Michael Jordan or Bjorn Borg can only maintain about 70% win rates when they play solo in random battles, and even getting above 60% is very hard.

 

So before you even begin to talk about RNG, or rigging, or any other factor in the universe, you absolutely must understand how important the affect of having 15 person teams is when looking at win rates.

 

2) Randomness

 

People consistently underestimate how powerful randomness can be, but at the same time they also fail to understand how quickly and easily randomness balances out over time. You can do any of the randomness tests that are frequently discussed, whether you use coin flipping or dice rolling, and you can very easily see how often streaks happen, and how often a series of results will happen that feel quite surprising. The main problem with randomness is that very few people understand it properly, which leads to a whole bunch of tinfoil hat theories, false logic and just plain old bad thinking.

 

If you want to make it hard for people to have excessively long winning streaks - use randomness in the MM.

If you want to help push people towards an average win rate - use randomness in the MM.

If you want people to have winning and losing streaks that can be influenced by their individual skill but that they can never completely control - use randomness in the MM.

If you want groups of people to get bunched together in a way that limits their ability to win too much, or lose too much - use randomness in the MM.

 

It is human nature to look for patterns, we all do it, it's how we survived and evolved. We are incredibly good at pattern recognition. in fact we're so good at it that we imagine patterns that don't really exist, because being extremely good at pattern recognition also means that we're bad at understanding randomness. You can see this in the things that people say all the time - "Everything happens for a reason" or "I don't believe in coincidences" and so on. People always want things to be caused by something else, they want bad things to have a reason, and they want good things to have a reason, and when there is not an underlying cause we make one up. Somewhere in the world, every day, people "see" things in the clouds, or in a piece of toast, or in their alphabet soup, that are nothing more than the result of some random thing happening, but they just happen to notice it at a moment when it feels like there's a pattern.

 

It shouldn't be any surprise that people who can "see" faces in a piece of toast are also going to "see" patterns in the MM or in their battle results. And the thing is this is not limited to the tin foil hat crowd, every one of us has experienced the feeling that the game is "stacked against us" sometimes, or that "I can do no wrong today" feeling. The issue here is not that people feel things, it's that some people can't tell the difference between feelings and facts. Look how many people say, "I'm bottom tier 90% of the time" even though it would be really easy for them to prove to themselves that it's not true. They say it because it feels that way, but they never bother to check themselves, to see the difference between feelings and reality.

 

We all have the same feelings, we all have the same perceptions - the key is to not let these feelings lead you down the primrose path. If you feel like something is happening, that is your cue to start doing the work of gathering information to see if it's actually true. This game is full of people who could very easily check to see if their feelings are right, but they just don't bother. And the main reason for that is that we evolved to trust our feelings of pattern recognition, because recognizing randomness is not a survival skill, it's not something that gets passed down through the genes from generation to generation. So each individual has to teach and train themselves to understand how randomness really works, and to learn that sometimes patterns don't really exists, they're just imagining it.

 

 

There is simply no reason to design a "system based on PR vs. RNG used as a lumping variable based on WR over some analyzed time frame", because team size & randomness do all of that for you, and they do it automatically without any additional work or effort required.



NeatoMan #162 Posted May 02 2018 - 19:03

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View PostCognitive_Dissonance, on May 02 2018 - 11:39, said:

 

Excellent. So there you go, I proposed a hypothesis and got sound rebuttals. I guess the only amendment I would make is that since there are 80% more "bad" players, or those below 50% using WN8 gradations, then the "Poop Bucket for PR or RNG" would seed Uni's, Teals, Cucumbers in the bucket list at much lower ratio - but even I can see problems with that, as you only have about 20% of the player base to seed the "good bucket" with winning teams and you would exhaust your pool for that selection I think.

 

Mystery solved, rigging is not practical from this little thought experiment.

I have always suspected WG of playing with MM weights of tanks.  It used to be a hidden stat.  They've used it as a balancing mechanism for tanks, rather than resorting to outright buffs/nerfs.  A tank with an MM weight buff means it is lackluster and will get better tanks put on its teams to make up for it.  The tank still sucks but appears fine in the server stats because it gets carried to more wins.  However this targets all users of that particular tank.  I have always hated WG's use of MM weights.  It's a terrible mechanic, and unnecessary in this new MM.

 

Theoretically they could play with an individual's MM weights (either giving all your tanks an MM weight buff/nerf based on your stats).   This would then make you have to play with more sub par tanks if you happened to be a good player (not necessarily worse players, just worse tanks).  Not sure how you'd prove it without a huge data set.



Urabouttudie #163 Posted May 02 2018 - 19:12

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Neato' I'd like to make a conciliatory post here...arguing for arguing's sake gets boring quickly, by outlining our fundamental differences of opinion here....

 

Now...concerning what I've dubbed 'Tier Shifting" (since WG didn't actually define it with a name when they announced the new mechanism they added). The newly added function of the MM's ability to move a player up in tier placement in future battles if they've been placed in a lot of low-tier positions recently...that one.

 

Where I think our fundamental difference in approach and perspective lies is in how each of us view the above game addition's functionality.

 

You see, I very much view it as an admission by WG that they can in fact track individual data and use it to manipulate each individual player's experience.

 

Now...I bellieve that one thing leads to another...if WG can and is tracking tier placement...then they can track other data...and if it is in their best interest to do so, they must therefore likely they are doing so...And if they are tracking that data and it is in their best interest to do so, it is therefore likely they are actually using that other data...in ways that we are unaware of.

 

IE; I believe that if WG says the Tier Shifting feature moves people up, without expressly saying it also moves them down...that feature most likely also moves people down

 

In my mind, it is a matter of discovering how they are doing it...not whether they are or not...

 

However, I think you view the addition of Tier Shifting to the game as a singular event and mechanism that only does what it is stated to do and nothing more, nothing less.

 

IE; You believe that if WG says the Tier Shifting feature moves people up, without expressly saying it also moves them down...that feature most likely only moves people up, as stated.

 

You seem to assume the most altruistic position with only WG's word for it as proof...

 

I always assume WG is hiding something and work from there...

 

We will never agree that there is even an issue to argue about under these conditions. You will always believe my approach is not scientific and I will always believe your approach is misdirected.

 

So we will just have to agree to disagree I think...don't you?

 



NeatoMan #164 Posted May 02 2018 - 19:45

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View PostUrabouttudie, on May 02 2018 - 13:12, said:

Neato' I'd like to make a conciliatory post here...arguing for arguing's sake gets boring quickly, by outlining our fundamental differences of opinion here....

This is good. now we are getting somewhere. We could have avoided pages of back and forth

 

Block Quote

Now...concerning what I've dubbed 'Tier Shifting" (since WG didn't actually define it with a name when they announced the new mechanism they added). The newly added function of the MM's ability to move a player up in tier placement in future battles if they've been placed in a lot of low-tier positions recently...that one.

 

Where I think our fundamental difference in approach and perspective lies is in how each of us view the above game addition's functionality.

 

You see, I very much view it as an admission by WG that they can in fact track individual data and use it to manipulate each individual player's experience.

 Of course they track our data.  A few mechanisms are clearly outlined in the patent.  This is nothing new.  It's just a variation on the same theme.

 

Block Quote

Now...I bellieve that one thing leads to another...if WG can and is tracking tier placement...then they can track other data...and if it is in their best interest to do so, they must therefore likely they are doing so...And if they are tracking that data and it is in their best interest to do so, it is therefore likely they are actually using that other data...in ways that we are unaware of.

 WGs use of so many hidden parameters certainly doesn't help in this matter.  That's one of my biggext complaints of WG

 

Block Quote

IE; I believe that if WG says the Tier Shifting feature moves people up, without expressly saying it also moves them down...that feature most likely also moves people down

In my mind, it is a matter of discovering how they are doing it...not whether they are or not...

However, I think you view the addition of Tier Shifting to the game as a singular event and mechanism that only does what it is stated to do and nothing more, nothing less.

IE; You believe that if WG says the Tier Shifting feature moves people up, without expressly saying it also moves them down...that feature most likely only moves people up, as stated.

 I have seen the tier shifting up take place.  I have only gotten 3 bottom tier 3-5-7 games in a row (with maybe one or two instances of 4 games in a row).  Randomly I'd expect some longer streaks.

 

As far as shifting down, it's not necessary.  The 3-5-7 MM ensures that it will happen naturally.   Like my gravity analogy; you only need to apply a counteracting force to raise something up.  It doesn't need anything additional to fall back down.  Nobody is getting too many top tier games in a row (unless you play tier 10)

 

Block Quote

You seem to assume the most altruistic position with only WG's word for it as proof...

I always assume WG is hiding something and work from there...

We will never agree that there is even an issue to argue about under these conditions. You will always believe my approach is not scientific and I will always believe your approach is misdirected.

So we will just have to agree to disagree I think...don't you?

You underestimate what can and can't be revealed with the scientific method.  Having done it all my career I can understand what can and can't be done.   We absolutely can determine if there is any relationship between win rates and tier placement, and/or good/bad teams.  I guess we'll forever disagree on that point.



oddeyes1 #165 Posted May 02 2018 - 21:21

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your wins will go up if you cemp back an let others die, watch youtube, that's how all of them do it an when you look carefully, they never play alone an always have back-up in platoon an they take hits for them too. allso those guys have promoter Accounts with better stats to out match everyone else

just try it. write down the number of shots and pens. you will find that no prem account ,no,prem ammo,no prem consumables will reduce your pens to 20%

Numbers don't lie!


Edited by oddeyes1, May 02 2018 - 21:29.


AnArmyofBun #166 Posted May 02 2018 - 21:32

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I just wanna know who even really gives a damn.  Seriously who cares?  It's World of Tanks.  Just play as well as you personally can and don't worry about the rest.  If you wanna be a dodo and butt touch in a derp t49 do it.  If you wanna hold yourself accountable and improve in segments.  More damage, more kills, well wins will come.  Or don't.  It's not that hard.  It's pretty simple.  Just play the game to the best of your ability to win.

Kliphie #167 Posted May 02 2018 - 21:59

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View PostAnArmyofBun, on May 02 2018 - 15:32, said:

I just wanna know who even really gives a damn.  Seriously who cares?  

 

That was UATD's take a few weeks ago, now he's on a jihad.  

_Tsavo_ #168 Posted May 02 2018 - 22:31

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View Postoddeyes1, on May 02 2018 - 15:21, said:

your wins will go up if you cemp back an let others die, watch youtube, that's how all of them do it an when you look carefully, they never play alone an always have back-up in platoon an they take hits for them too. allso those guys have promoter Accounts with better stats to out match everyone else

just try it. write down the number of shots and pens. you will find that no prem account ,no,prem ammo,no prem consumables will reduce your pens to 20%

Numbers don't lie!

Lolololololbwahahahahahahaha

 

No.



Urabouttudie #169 Posted May 02 2018 - 22:45

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View PostNeatoMan, on May 02 2018 - 10:45, said:

This is good. now we are getting somewhere. We could have avoided pages of back and forth

 

 Of course they track our data.  A few mechanisms are clearly outlined in the patent.  This is nothing new.  It's just a variation on the same theme.

 

 WGs use of so many hidden parameters certainly doesn't help in this matter.  That's one of my biggext complaints of WG

 

 I have seen the tier shifting up take place.  I have only gotten 3 bottom tier 3-5-7 games in a row (with maybe one or two instances of 4 games in a row).  Randomly I'd expect some longer streaks.

 

As far as shifting down, it's not necessary.  The 3-5-7 MM ensures that it will happen naturally.   Like my gravity analogy; you only need to apply a counteracting force to raise something up.  It doesn't need anything additional to fall back down.  Nobody is getting too many top tier games in a row (unless you play tier 10)

 

You underestimate what can and can't be revealed with the scientific method.  Having done it all my career I can understand what can and can't be done.   We absolutely can determine if there is any relationship between win rates and tier placement, and/or good/bad teams.  I guess we'll forever disagree on that point.

 

You keep getting hung up on win rates and tier placement...I do not in any way believe WG is directly manipulating the WR of players...maybe they are but I don't believe so.

 

Regarding tier shifting...more specifically tier jumping.... I think of the effect on win rate as a side effect of being both a decent player and top tier...in the right tank to be top tier in...Imagine if you knew before you pressed battle whether you were going to be top tier or not...this is tier jjumping

 

If you're a good player, and you know which tanks to play in order to exploit the knowledge that you are going to be top tier...or not..of course you're going to win more...This might manifest itself as win streaks...but this might merely be a side effect of manipulating the MM's tier shifting mechanism outside of it's parameter, which was the actual goal.

 

You keep looking at data trying to find correlations to win ratios...win rates...losses etc...why in the world would WG directly rig WR? They simply wouldn't because as you have pointed out soooooo many times, correctly...directly rigging WR would be far, far too easy to detect with simple statistical analysis....on this we agree in using the scientific method.

 

So it must be happening by some other method...

 

Apply your scientific method to tank selections that allow tier rotations both inside and outside of the MM's 3 tier spread...that is what I did to find the answer I was looking for...but then...you can't now because...well they changed it...

 

I've gotten some very interesting results between two accounts...same tanks, same crews, same server, same times...lots of different results....some of similar results...

 

I've proven myself wrong many times now...

 

It's fun to test the boundaries...

 



Urabouttudie #170 Posted May 02 2018 - 22:47

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View PostKliphie, on May 02 2018 - 12:59, said:

 

That was UATD's take a few weeks ago, now he's on a jihad.  

 

lol right?!?!

 

I usually try to stay out of these stupid discussions...

 

Neato is pretty good at keeping my attention in an argument though...

 

and he can take a lot of abuse...

 

He likes it!



NeatoMan #171 Posted May 03 2018 - 02:11

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View PostUrabouttudie, on May 02 2018 - 16:45, said:

You keep getting hung up on win rates and tier placement...I do not in any way believe WG is directly manipulating the WR of players...maybe they are but I don't believe so.

Because everyone keeps bringing up the patent when they scream "rigged".   They only scream "rigged" when they lose too much.

 

Block Quote

Regarding tier shifting...more specifically tier jumping.... I think of the effect on win rate as a side effect of being both a decent player and top tier...in the right tank to be top tier in...Imagine if you knew before you pressed battle whether you were going to be top tier or not...this is tier jjumping

 

If you're a good player, and you know which tanks to play in order to exploit the knowledge that you are going to be top tier...or not..of course you're going to win more...This might manifest itself as win streaks...but this might merely be a side effect of manipulating the MM's tier shifting mechanism outside of it's parameter, which was the actual goal.

 But how does you knowing how to game the system imply that WG is actively doing something to you?  Remember when they used to show how many players were in queue at each tier, and people started using that knowledge to make it more likely to queue in as a top tier tank?  WG got rid of the tier/queue screen because of it.   You may have stumbled upon the same phenomenon in a different way.   All that shows is you figured how to game the server population in the queue.  Perhaps certain templates at certain tier populations worked in your favor when you queued specific tanks.

 

Block Quote

Apply your scientific method to tank selections that allow tier rotations both inside and outside of the MM's 3 tier spread...that is what I did to find the answer I was looking for...but then...you can't now because...well they changed it...

 but what good is this if you have to play a certain way and with certain tanks to fall "victim" to the manipulation?  If it doesn't manifest itself through normal play then it's a fairly useless mechanism.   It should be observable under normal playing conditions and not require some specific rotation of tanks.



LeaveIT2Beaver #172 Posted May 03 2018 - 03:50

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