Bilderberger, on Aug 04 2018  09:03, said:
and this is griefing how?
I find the information about the players useful. The win chance is fairly accurate, but as others have said it is not a prediction, it's a probability.
While Win8 can be farmed a bit, it's a pretty close correlation to win rate. By definition, "win rate" is an accurate measure of your contribution to the battles you participated in (given enough battles to average).
Only guys cheating by XVM sniping care about keeping XVM in battle. If it was after battle you could see stats it would be fine.
It's not like you can't spot the OTTER dude and focus him by looking at what he's driving.
BurglarOfBanff_ff, on Aug 10 2018  11:19, said:
I find the information about the players useful. The win chance is fairly accurate, but as others have said it is not a prediction, it's a probability.
While Win8 can be farmed a bit, it's a pretty close correlation to win rate. By definition, "win rate" is an accurate measure of your contribution to the battles you participated in (given enough battles to average).
For a few months now, numerous posters have said that win probability is no longer available.
Is it really no longer available? Is it a function of your XVM version installed?
As for win rate being an accurate measure (sample size or not) of one person's contribution in their battles, you gotta be kidding right. One person's contribution is a percentage of his 15player team contribution and it's modified by the other 15 players in the battle. The result of every battle is how 15 players did against another 15. There is a hell of a lot of difference between 'influence' and 'controls'. Jeez, how can such a ridiculous idea exist.
Edited by da_Rock002, Aug 10 2018  21:56.
da_Rock002, on Aug 10 2018  15:54, said:
For a few months now, numerous posters have said that win probability is no longer available.
Is it really no longer available? Is it a function of your XVM version installed?
The win chance from xvm has not been available for more than a year. Some mod packs include their own version, but it's not the same as what xvm used to do. It's basically a comparison of team wn8 scores.
Pipinghot, on Aug 04 2018  11:31, said:
No. That's wrong, the game does not do anything to calculate the probability of winning, in fact the game explicitly avoids calculating the probability of winning. The MM puts teams together with no interest at all in the probability of winning, that's exactly what makes the MM random. WG built the MM to be random, which is the opposite of rigged.
Of course it does, that's why there is a probability of winning, rather than a certainty of winning. If you roll a pair of dice you have a 16.67% probability of rolling a 7, it's never guaranteed. And if you play a game of WoT you have a % probability of winning or losing, it's never guaranteed either way.
Again, the game does nothing of the sort. The MM completely ignores skill, which is intentional. The MM never tries to create battles with any specific odds of winning, it picks the teams based on the rules that are built in to it, and none of those rules have anything to do with player skill.
And what XVM does is look at the overall stats for every players on both teams (after the MM has built the teams) and then it calculates a probability of winning or losing, whether a team wins or loses is up to the players.
But we don't have rigging of our matches, and that's the point that people need to understand. If the MM gave everyone good matches all the time, if the odds were always between 40%60% chance of winning, that would be rigging the matches. But what the MM does instead is build teams that have nothing to do with skill, and it just lets the chips fall where they may. The MM is random with regards to skill, and random is the opposite of rigged.
You may think that you're helping the people who get upset about the game, but you're really feeding into their paranoia and conspiracy theories. There is no rigging in the WoT MM, some days you just have good or bad luck, and every player gets the same amount of good & bad luck. The only difference between players is what each player does with that good or bad luck, it has nothing to do with rigging because that rigging does not exist.
Current MM is indeed agnostic of skill and as such it is designed such that the outcome is feeding the new the, the inexperienced, and the weaker to the strong. There is no sheltered learning curve to help those who need to learn. No it is day one, being fed to those who will eat you with no remorse before you have even had a chance to know what types of ammo you have or how to switch it. No matter what people say that is how it is designed. Everyone "gets the same chance" to be eaten by those with higher skill level. It is either deal with it or move on as so many others have. Don't begin to think for one moment that it is a "fair" method. It is an agnostic method. It is far from fair. It is like dropping one hundred random people on an island and saying, "ok, only one can be left alive." More than likely it will be the one with the training and experience in how to survive. This MM is no different. The one with the most experience and "training" will win most often. But hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut. There is still a chance that a team of tomatoes can beat a team of yellow or above, a very slim chance.
In my opinion Wargaming would like to see as close to a 50% win and 50% loss for everyone. Why I say this? Well if there are players who win mostly all the time it's not in Wargaming's interest as this causes it to become too easy for these players and these players would less likely spend money to get credits or gold. Winning they will get all the credits they need and they also would less likely not need gold to convert any xp to free xp to be used to research tanks or upgrade crew experience. Why pay for a premium account to get xp or credits if your winning all the time?
Wargaming also does not want people to lose most of the time because it will cause people to eventually stop playing the game.
It's in my opinion that the MM records your performance in the battle and if you win, the next battle will become progressively harder until you lose then it will back off the difficulty until you win again. The process goes back and forth to try to achieve a %50 win / %50 loss scenario.
Unless Wargaming is willing to reveal the programing that goes into matchmaking we all are just guessing if it's rigged or not. When it comes to Wargaming revealing the programing or certain programing parts of the game....well we all know the answer to that..."It's company private property" and will most likely not be revealed unless Wargaming benefits from it.
So please don't be so quick to insist it is rigged or not rigged. They are both valid.
Note: I speak of any so called random matchmaking battles only. The other matches such as clan wars, skirmishes, etc. well that's another story....
Pipinghot, on Aug 04 2018  11:31, said:
No. That's wrong, the game does not do anything to calculate the probability of winning, in fact the game explicitly avoids calculating the probability of winning. The MM puts teams together with no interest at all in the probability of winning, that's exactly what makes the MM random. WG built the MM to be random, which is the opposite of rigged.
Of course it does, that's why there is a probability of winning, rather than a certainty of winning. If you roll a pair of dice you have a 16.67% probability of rolling a 7, it's never guaranteed. And if you play a game of WoT you have a % probability of winning or losing, it's never guaranteed either way.
Again, the game does nothing of the sort. The MM completely ignores skill, which is intentional. The MM never tries to create battles with any specific odds of winning, it picks the teams based on the rules that are built in to it, and none of those rules have anything to do with player skill.
And what XVM does is look at the overall stats for every players on both teams (after the MM has built the teams) and then it calculates a probability of winning or losing, whether a team wins or loses is up to the players.
But we don't have rigging of our matches, and that's the point that people need to understand. If the MM gave everyone good matches all the time, if the odds were always between 40%60% chance of winning, that would be rigging the matches. But what the MM does instead is build teams that have nothing to do with skill, and it just lets the chips fall where they may. The MM is random with regards to skill, and random is the opposite of rigged.
You may think that you're helping the people who get upset about the game, but you're really feeding into their paranoia and conspiracy theories. There is no rigging in the WoT MM, some days you just have good or bad luck, and every player gets the same amount of good & bad luck. The only difference between players is what each player does with that good or bad luck, it has nothing to do with rigging because that rigging does not exist.
Pipinghot, on Aug 04 2018  11:31, said:
No. That's wrong, the game does not do anything to calculate the probability of winning, in fact the game explicitly avoids calculating the probability of winning. The MM puts teams together with no interest at all in the probability of winning, that's exactly what makes the MM random. WG built the MM to be random, which is the opposite of rigged.
A random MM ALWAYS skews to the skill of you, the individual player, in the long run, because your presence in each match you play is the only constant in your WoT career.
In other words, the OTHER team is random, your team's quality is ALWAYS affected by your ability.
WG does not rig each match, but by choosing a random MM, WG chose a rigged design. They do not have to rig the MM, a random MM ALWAYS, in the long run, favors good players, and ALWAYS, in the long run, skews against below average players. A random MM, in and of itself, is already "rigged" before it makes a match.
A random MM can do no other, in the long run.
Block Quote
But we don't have rigging of our matches, and that's the point that people need to understand. If the MM gave everyone good matches all the time, if the odds were always between 40%60% chance of winning, that would be rigging the matches. But what the MM does instead is build teams that have nothing to do with skill, and it just lets the chips fall where they may. The MM is random with regards to skill, and random is the opposite of rigged.
Again, MM does not have to rig matches, the system itself is rigged, skewed by the player's skill.
And because the MM is random, streaks occur.
If you are below average, these streaks will be longer and worse, on average, than a good player's bad streaks; if you are above average, they will be shorter and not as bad as those a belowaverage player suffers.
..... and I am pretty sure that this is a newplayer retention problem, because new players are usually not even average.
Mind you, these problems I have listed are just a function of WG using a random MM, and the implications of large numbers. A random MM does have some good aspects, but, I believe, at this stage of the game's life, these negative aspects outweigh any good. As an example of a good aspect would be that a random MM is very fair to average players, in the long run.
But newbies are not average, and we are not holding onto enough newbs....
So aside from holding onto newbs better if we had a better MM, why do I say this piece in this thread?
If you are below average and think MM is rigged against you, you are mostly right. It is, because it is only 96.7% random, and will always be rigged against you, ALWAYS, until you are at least average in the tank you are playing.
So, come on the forums and demand change, but at least understand what is wrong, and what is happening.
You could play better, and WG could choose a better MM design.
Edited by WeSayNotToday, Sep 10 2018  23:50.
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