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Five Months of WoT Stat Collection - 2k+ Games Collected


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Trauglodyte #1 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 00:34

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In the spirit of some of the arguments that have taken place on this forum, I've taken it upon myself, since I'm a stat nerd in and out of game, to do some data tabulation since midway through March.  None of what I'm listing below is meant to steer a conversation in any direction or another.  Rather, it is simply raw data collected over 2,133 games.  So, take it for what it is.

 

411 games at tier 6

412 games at tier 7

729 games at tier 8

581 games at tier 9

 

Average game tier for tier 6 matches:  7.18

  • 164 games on the bottom
  • 152 games in the middle
  • 169 games on top

 

Average game tier for tier 7 matches:  7.99

  • 121 games on the bottom
  • 167 games in the middle
  • 124 games on top

 

Average game tier for tier 8 matches:  9.24

  • 326 games on the bottom
  • 255 games in the middle
  • 149 games on top

 

Average game tier for tier 9 matches:  9.68

  • 0 games on the bottom (no duh!)
  • 394 games in the middle
  • 187 games on top

 

Looking at the data for game templates, the data showed:

  • 77% of games were 3/5/7
  • 21% of games were 5/10
  • 3% of games were single tier

 

To expand upon that data, here it is by tier:

  • Tier 6:  75% were 3/5/7, 22% were 5/10, and 3% were single tier
  • Tier 7:  80% were 3/5/7, 19% were 5/10, and 1% were single tier
  • Tier 8:  77% were 3/5/7, 18% were 5/10, and 5% were single tier
  • Tier 9:  74% were 3/5/7, 25% were 5/10, and 1% were single tier

 

Looking at the difference between my tank tier and game tier, I saw the following:

  • Tier 6:  40% had 2 tiers of separation, 37% were 1 tier different, and 23% no tier diff
  • Tier 7:  29% had 2 tiers of separation, 41% were 1 tier different, 30% no tier diff <--- strange how tier 7 is so pure and balanced
  • Tier 8:  45% had 2 tiers of separation, 35% were 1 tier different, 21% no tier diff
  • Tier 9:  32% had 2 tiers of separation, 68% were 1 tier different, less than 1% no tier diff

 

Of games where all of one side was killed (i.e., no draws or cap wins), which accounted for 1,932 games (90.5% of games, btw), this is the distribution of outcomes:

  • 15-14 - 2%
  • 15-13 - 3%
  • 15-12 - 5%
  • 15-11 - 6%
  • 15-10 - 9%
  • 15-9 - 9%
  • 15-8- 10%
  • 15-7 - 13%
  • 15-6 - 11%
  • 15-5 - 12%
  • 15-4 - 9%
  • 15-3 - 6%
  • 15-2 - 3%
  • 15-1 - 2%
  • 15-0 - less than 1%

 

The average difference in team damage for game tiers 6-10 in a Loss compared to a Win is roughly -33%

  • -31% for tier 10 games
  • -26% for tier 9 games
  • -23% for tier 8 games
  • -35% for tier 7 games
  • -48% for tier 6 games

 

Across those 2,133 games, I've had 2,168 players on my team deal 0 damage.  That means that, in every game that I've played, I've only really had 13 teammates.  NOTE:  I did not tabulate the numbers for the other teams.  Only 377 games were played where EVERYONE on my team did damage.  So, 17.7% of games.

  • 620 games had at least 1 person (29%)
  • 578 games had at least 2 people (27%)
  • 369 games had at least 3 people (17%)
  • 126 games had at least 4 people (6%)
  • 54 games had at least 5 people (3%)
  • 9 games had at least 6 people (less than 1%)
  • 3 games had at least 7 people (less than 1%)
  • 2 games had at least 8 people (less than 1%)

Edited by Trauglodyte, Aug 09 2018 - 03:15.


Sparkster3 #2 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 00:44

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good work

TommyBuns #3 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 00:45

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"Across those 2,133 games, I've had 2,168 players on my team deal 0 damage.  That means that, in every game that I've played, I've only really had 13 teammates.  NOTE:  I did not tabulate the numbers for the other teams."

 

There's a lot more bots present in these games than anyone seems to want to acknowledge.I used to be of the belief that these were player accounts, botting to grind lines, etc. Now, I'm certain the majority are WG bots to populate the servers, and fill the queues. Btw, I've had as many as 8 zero damage/zero kill bots on my team in a single game, but it's usually around 3-5, and always MORE than the red team, go figure. 

 

P.S. - No exaggeration or hyperbole on my part, I have screen caps to back it up, if the regulars show up implying that I am.


Edited by TommyBuns, Aug 09 2018 - 00:50.


IndignantMapleBacon #4 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 00:45

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Mmmmmmmm sexy data.

 

Good job man, i see 0 proof of rigging, unless you get a free tier 8 prem for a WG sanctioned list....then i call shenanigans. 

 

But seriously, proof that raw data shows how random this game is in the end.   



IndignantMapleBacon #5 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 00:47

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View PostTommyBuns, on Aug 09 2018 - 00:45, said:

"Across those 2,133 games, I've had 2,168 players on my team deal 0 damage.  That means that, in every game that I've played, I've only really had 13 teammates.  NOTE:  I did not tabulate the numbers for the other teams."

 

There's a lot more bots present in these games than anyone seems to want to acknowledge.I used to be of the belief that these were player accounts, botting to grind lines, etc. Now, I'm certain the majority are WG bots to populate the servers, and fill the queues.

 

Pretty sure after +24k games I've seem maybe a hand full of bots......so just just enjoy the data for what it is. 

GaiusMaximus505 #6 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 00:53

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Thank you... I was dealing with insomnia but that put me into a coma and the best sleep in years.

Gravtech #7 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 00:55

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look at that curve. This also shows the effect of the snowball effect on outcomes nice job. 

IndignantMapleBacon #8 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 01:04

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View PostGravtech, on Aug 09 2018 - 00:55, said:

look at that curve. This also shows the effect of the snowball effect on outcomes nice job. 

 

Data curves are tight!

Altwar #9 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 01:10

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Interesting tally, OP.    Just wondering if all those were normal MM tanks or was there at any time a sprinkling of preferred matchmaking?

Just asking because that would possibly skew your collection of data somewhat.

Other than that, thanks for sharing with us and now I hope I forget this for a while before I feel the urge to do my own study just out of curiosity...



Pipinghot #10 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 01:12

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View PostTommyBuns, on Aug 08 2018 - 18:45, said:

"Across those 2,133 games, I've had 2,168 players on my team deal 0 damage.  That means that, in every game that I've played, I've only really had 13 teammates.  NOTE:  I did not tabulate the numbers for the other teams."

 

There's a lot more bots present in these games than anyone seems to want to acknowledge.I used to be of the belief that these were player accounts, botting to grind lines, etc. Now, I'm certain the majority are WG bots to populate the servers, and fill the queues. Btw, I've had as many as 8 zero damage/zero kill bots on my team in a single game, but it's usually around 3-5, and always MORE than the red team, go figure. 

 

P.S. - No exaggeration or hyperbole on my part, I have screen caps to back it up, if the regulars show up implying that I am.

So you want people to buy the idea that Trauglodyte averaged 1 player per team who did 0 damage, but you average 4 players per team who do 0 damage. Somehow you get 4 times as many zero damage players as someone else, and somehow, by a fantastical twist of evil magic, your teams average more 0 damage players than the opposing teams do.

 

Surely you have to see how crazy that sounds...

 

When you go through your screen shots and honestly count up those numbers, every single one of them, I guarantee you'll find out that you're wrong about what you think has been happening. You may not be exaggerating intentionally, but you're definitely exaggerating.


Edited by Pipinghot, Aug 09 2018 - 16:26.


Kliphie #11 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 01:28

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Were any of those games in Pref MM tanks?

Hellsfog #12 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 01:34

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Did you collect all that data to show that some players aren't good at this game?  

I_QQ_4_U #13 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 01:36

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View PostTrauglodyte, on Aug 09 2018 - 00:34, said:

In the spirit of ....

 

That pretty much jives with what I experience when playing. All these people who say they're never top tier obviously just feel that way or they play 1 or 2 games a day and have really bad luck. I keep track on a daily basis and it's VERY rare that in any daily session where I play ten or more games that I don't have at least 2 top tier games.

 

 They really do need to balance out the templates though. They should either be closer to even or have 5/10 as the predominate one.



I_QQ_4_U #14 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 01:46

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View PostTommyBuns, on Aug 09 2018 - 00:45, said:

"Across those 2,133 games, I've had 2,168 players on my team deal 0 damage.  That means that, in every game that I've played, I've only really had 13 teammates.  NOTE:  I did not tabulate the numbers for the other teams."

 

There's a lot more bots present in these games than anyone seems to want to acknowledge.I used to be of the belief that these were player accounts, botting to grind lines, etc. Now, I'm certain the majority are WG bots to populate the servers, and fill the queues. Btw, I've had as many as 8 zero damage/zero kill bots on my team in a single game, but it's usually around 3-5, and always MORE than the red team, go figure. 

 

P.S. - No exaggeration or hyperbole on my part, I have screen caps to back it up, if the regulars show up implying that I am.

 

  He's basically averaging one zero damage player per game which is about what I feel I experience as well. I guess WG is rigging the game against you since I'm sure you're not exaggerating.

Jaspo #15 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 01:54

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View PostTommyBuns, on Aug 08 2018 - 17:45, said:

"Across those 2,133 games, I've had 2,168 players on my team deal 0 damage.  That means that, in every game that I've played, I've only really had 13 teammates.  NOTE:  I did not tabulate the numbers for the other teams."

 

There's a lot more bots present in these games than anyone seems to want to acknowledge.I used to be of the belief that these were player accounts, botting to grind lines, etc. Now, I'm certain the majority are WG bots to populate the servers, and fill the queues. Btw, I've had as many as 8 zero damage/zero kill bots on my team in a single game, but it's usually around 3-5, and always MORE than the red team, go figure. 

 

P.S. - No exaggeration or hyperbole on my part, I have screen caps to back it up, if the regulars show up implying that I am.

 

Just because someone does 0 damage in a game, doesn't make them a bot, let alone a tin foil WG bot...now granted, 0 damage for 1 in 15 players is a lot, but there ARE a lot of bad players (as opposed to bots) so it's maybe not so surprising that the rate is so high. But, it's actually quite plausible for even a good player to have a 0 damage game: run into a high tier tank as a low tier tank, bounce some shells off it and/or get robbed by WG's RNGTM, get shot a few times while being chased down, then maybe get focused by arty, dead. 0 damage in maybe 2 minutes of engagement. Nothing bot about it.

Nunya_000 #16 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 01:59

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View PostTommyBuns, on Aug 08 2018 - 15:45, said:

"Across those 2,133 games, I've had 2,168 players on my team deal 0 damage.  That means that, in every game that I've played, I've only really had 13 teammates.  NOTE:  I did not tabulate the numbers for the other teams."

 

There's a lot more bots present in these games than anyone seems to want to acknowledge.I used to be of the belief that these were player accounts, botting to grind lines, etc. Now, I'm certain the majority are WG bots to populate the servers, and fill the queues. Btw, I've had as many as 8 zero damage/zero kill bots on my team in a single game, but it's usually around 3-5, and always MORE than the red team, go figure. 

 

P.S. - No exaggeration or hyperbole on my part, I have screen caps to back it up, if the regulars show up implying that I am.

 

There is nothing in that data that provide any indication that there are bots.  An average of one player per battle doing zero damage certainly doesn't.  There are many reasons why a regular player might have done zero damage:

 

fell in the water

stuck on side whole battle

passive scout

Killed early

lost internet

high ping

real life interrupted

bounced everything

TK'ed

designated arty target all battle

 

and you went straight to "bots"...  :facepalm:

 

 



Nunya_000 #17 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 02:01

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View PostTrauglodyte, on Aug 08 2018 - 15:34, said:

In the spirit of some of the arguments that have taken place on this forum, I've taken it upon myself, since I'm a stat nerd in and out of game, to do some data tabulation since midway through March.  None of what I'm listing below is meant to steer a conversation in any direction or another.  Rather, it is simply raw data collected over 2,133 games.  So, take it for what it is.

 

 

Excellent work!



Cmdr_Adama_BSG75 #18 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 02:23

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Hell, I'll admit I've gotten ZERO damage, and I swear I'm not a bot! I've played many games where an arty gets ahold of you, then the other two hammer you. POOF, thats it. GAME OVER. And I've seen many games, especially recently it seems, where the teams have three, four, or five players with no damage at all. And then you got my clanmate who somehow managed to deal ONE damage point the other nite. ONE. Never saw that before!

Trauglodyte #19 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 02:51

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View PostAltwar, on Aug 09 2018 - 01:10, said:

Interesting tally, OP.    Just wondering if all those were normal MM tanks or was there at any time a sprinkling of preferred matchmaking?

Just asking because that would possibly skew your collection of data somewhat.

Other than that, thanks for sharing with us and now I hope I forget this for a while before I feel the urge to do my own study just out of curiosity...

 

View PostKliphie, on Aug 09 2018 - 01:28, said:

Were any of those games in Pref MM tanks?

 

100% of these games were played with non-Pref MM tanks and 100% of the games tabulated were played solo.

 

As to the percentage of people spitting out 0 damage games, I'm included in those numbers.  Today, out of 34 games that I played - I'm on vacation, btw, so that explains the larger sample for today versus much fewer games on normal days - I had two games where I put up goose eggs.  Sadly, both of those were in my Tiger II, in which I took a real freaking beating today, and both of those were because I rolled into an area blind, due to poor teamwork and over aggressive play on my part.  Bad games happen.  Of those 2,168 players having done 0 damage in a game, I own 153 of them.  Mistakes happen.  The bulk of those are in my RU where I pushed too hard into an area to scout OR the team was just that bad and RNG pounded me.  Crap happens!

 

What I'm really struggling with is the data that I'm seeing that has no direct causality.  We all know it as RNG in win rate.  I've held a win rate percentage of 50-55%, daily, over the past year plus.  But, for whatever reason, every three weeks or so, I have a hiccup.  Look at my wotlabs.net data ( http://wotlabs.net/na/player/Trauglodyte ;) and view the win rate graph.  It shows a graph of around 2,000 games and it climbs and then plateaus, climbs and then plateaus.  Right now, I'm on a 2 week bender where I can't break 50%.  Did I forget how to play?  My Average Damage, wn8, and Average Experience per game says that I haven't.  Yet, in the data, I'll go strong for weeks and then *pow* in the face!  As someone that has spent a career dissecting data, doing trend analysis, built predictive algorithms, etc., I can't find the cause in anything.  Maps aren't an influence.  Tier isn't an influence.  Tank type/tier combo isn't an influence.  Rather, the one single constant is the cascade effect and, based upon the layout on "kill all, no cap" results, you see how the avalanche can impact the end result.  So, RNG of player and the domino impact of playing in a singular fashion and disregarding team or just making bad choices has a monumental impact on everything.  Makes me really appreciate how unicums bend their experience through skill while the rest of us struggle to make dents.

 

EDIT:  My girlfriend just walked in and saw my wotlabs page up and she asked if I built that.  I told her no and explained that the game imports the data to which she responded, "And you use that to become more competitive don't you.  *sigh*  It's worse than I thought."  Then she walked out.  Women truly are from a different planet.


Edited by Trauglodyte, Aug 09 2018 - 02:55.


da_Rock002 #20 Posted Aug 09 2018 - 02:53

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View PostTrauglodyte, on Aug 08 2018 - 18:34, said:


 

 

Across those 2,133 games, I've had 2,168 players on my team deal 0 damage.  That means that, in every game that I've played, I've only really had 13 teammates.  NOTE:  I did not tabulate the numbers for the other teams.

 

 


 

Hey, it's good to see someone's numbers.    It's especially good to see someone collecting scores as they tell more about your personal experiences than most stats.

Thanks for sharing.   

Did you notice it looks like around 56% of your battles were 15-7 to 15-0  scores?      What would be really worthwhile would be to see how many your team won of those, versus how many you team lost.    It'd give some indication how random your luck was with the mm. 


 

You don't say how many battles of those 2,133 everyone on your team did damage.   Without knowing that, your "13 teammates" isn't very clear.     What is obvious is that "every game" didn't have 4 of your allies do 0 damage.    You need to restate what you're getting at.    Having 4 teammates do 0 damage certainly did not happen "every game you've played".






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