Looking for some understanding of session win rates.

So, overall I am right at a 50% win rate and right at 52% for my last 1000 games or so. I have no problem with overall win rate, I feel like overall it reflects how much I contribute to wins or losses.

When I hang out in tiers six or seven my win rate responds positively compared to higher tiers, so I get the connection to overall win rates. My performance is better in the lower tiers so I win more.

What I do not understand is why my session win rates are so very random. It is constantly an all or nothing outing as far as wins or losses. My WN8 stays fairly level but I get 1-9 nights followed by 9-1 nights regularly. It is rare when I end a session around 50%. I typically try to play 10-15 games in a session if I can.

If I am fairly consistent shouldn't my average sessions be around 50% more often than not. I feel like I understand statistics and I understand small sample sizes, but it still seems like my mean ought to be centered more often than not.

So jumping from math to the conspiracy stuff....

I have read on these forums that War Gaming does have some kind of patent on an MM that raised and lowered quality of teams/ matches based on recent win rates or performance of players. I am not saying this is happening, but is there any credence to this?

**My question is....Am I looking at this wrong? Since it works out overall does that mean its purely due to the small sample sizes of nightly sessions? or does this seem a little wonky from a math/statistical viewpoint? ( Seems wonky to me)**

Also since I know how some of these discussions go... I am aware that my overall stats may say that I should have a lower win rate than I do. This is due to my first 15,000 or so games being on satellite internet with 600+ping. I have substantially raised my stats/gameplay in the last 8,000 or so games. Judge me on more recent efforts than on my early stuff.

Thanks for your input ahead of time.