I've been on to this subject for a long time. Fact is no one knows how the system is actually laid out. It appears from what little info we have, that the RNG tables are rolled at the beginning of the match, these tables determine your baseline for the match. Rigged or random doesn't matter. Its pretty flawed. Since the beginning or WoT it seemed clear the MM is designed to keep players as close to 50% win rate as possible. However WG stated that player skill is in no way used for team building in the MM. This is the biggest mistake of any MM in any game, and is cause of most of the "Blow Outs" we see in sub 5 min games.
However if you track this on a spread sheet its not very conclusive because of other factors, player skill, platooning, session time, tank choice, map, "TEAM" etc. All these things and more are determining factors in your wins, losses, & RNG.
Another big issue is knowing your Ammo, Gun, and Enemy tanks. What ammo works well against spaced armor, what ammo loses penetration over distance. These are all factors why you think your RNG went to [edited].
An addon I found recently called BattleHits, which is part of Aslans pack has really helped me get an idea of what happened to my shot and how to improve my shooting. Basically after the game you can go into BattleHits and see all the shots you took, and all the shots you received.
The question of RNG rigging can only be answered by WG. I think the current RNG system, and the Match Maker need a lot of work.