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Bad Match Making, Too Many Blowout Games, Statistical Anomalies, And Quitting WoT


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PhilthyOne1 #1 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 08:03

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So I've been playing for over five years now and I feel it's time to quit.  Spent a few $'s here and there on the game and do not believe spending $'s gives you any advantage in being put on better teams to win more.  My concern is over some statistical anomalies and a feel for the game and I feel something isn't quite right about it anymore.

 

I have a 54% win rate in most tanks and in the last year I've have these frequent runs of 7-8 losses in a row, one win, then another 5-6 losses in a row.  Same for wins, several in a row, then a loss, then several more wins in a row.  Statistically I find it very hard to believe that should happen very frequently at all.  In fact, with 30k battles now, statistically speaking, that would happen maybe once in every 140 games or so.  But these strings of wins and losses are constant.

Not only are they constant, but they are blowout wins or losses.  Rarely do I see a close game, a real thriller.  It's blowout after blowout after blowout.  There is absolutely nothing fun about a blowout win and crazy frustrating for a blowout loss.  Close games are the ones we all remember and enjoy.  Blowouts are not memorable either way, win or lose.

 

My frustration has peaked with the purchase of a Jagdpanzer E100 with 40 battles now and a 37% win rate.  I was really looking forward to this tank too.  However, not one of those games has been anything near a close game.  What prompted me to get on this forum and complain, is that in the last three games, I couldn't even get that slow TD to the front lines to make a difference.  The line would collapse before I could get in position and then I'm surrounded and killed instantly.

 

It was then that I started thinking I really don't like the game anymore because after 30k games you have a feel for it and I've started to realize something isn't quite right.  The match making is really bad, I mean seriously broken bad and I think there is a reason for it.  I feel like WoT tries to get games over quickly to get players back in the queue so they don't have to wait for a game too long.  So they throw imbalance into the equation more often than not.  These strings of wins and losses statistically should not happen with this frequency.  It tells me that WoT is playing around with RNG or team balance.  My guess is that RNG is being played around with because in blowout games, my shots will miss or bounce or not pen much more frequently, or they will be perfect, on target, and pen constantly.  I play arty a lot, and blowout loss games will have misses that are WELL outside the target cross and land on the border of the ring and sometimes even outside of the ring.  Blowout wins have my arty hitting everything.

So I'm almost never on these forums.  I've spent some time reading about Matchmaking and the key I see are these blowout games 15-3 wins/losses with several tanks making zero damage.  Those games are no fun and fun is the key to keeping players.  Unfortunately, something has happened in this last year that has taken the fun out of the game...  So I guess I'm leaving to find a fun game...

 

 



jdub11 #2 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 08:21

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In a show of solidarity i agree with 90% with what you said. The game really is sucking a$$ lately. I will stick around for a week or so and see if WG admits to thier blunder of a MM with a speedy intent to fix it. Otherwise, I too will step away for a few months. Maybe then I will revisit this game I used to really enjoy with the hopes it was rescued before i totally move on.

 

Cheers



tod914 #3 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 08:30

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MM has been absolute garbage.  Worse than the map rotation.  The higher the tier, the worse it is.

BigDollarBillz #4 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 08:39

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Yeah MM is definitely bad at the moment. Instead of just walking away and never coming back. Take you a month or two break. Then come back and give it another go. I hate seeing people leave the game, because I like meeting new people and running a few games with them. You're more than welcome to jump in our ts and platoon as well. we aren't one of those clans that will bug you to join either. But whatever you decide to do, I wish you luck on finding another game that you can enjoy.

Edited by BigDollarBillz, Jan 06 2019 - 08:40.


Firemoth #5 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 09:33

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truthfully, looking at your stats, you are average in your tier 8+ TDs.  infact you are average in all of your tier 8+ tanks. i dont know if its a playstyle issue or what but there is a gap in your performance at low tier and high tier. admittedly i have tanks i do not perform well with at high tier as well.

 

as for the JPE100, its a fun one trick TD that takes off 1k hp from people who accidentally drive in front of it or you miss and feel bad. or load HE for laughs. its a tank you cant take too seriously cause it ends up RNGing you or your enemy. the JT is a far more consistent TD, one that can perform at a tier 10 level but sees tier 7s



SnakePliskan #6 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 10:35

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View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 08:03, said:

So I've been playing for over five years now and I feel it's time to quit.  Spent a few $'s here and there on the game and do not believe spending $'s gives you any advantage in being put on better teams to win more.  My concern is over some statistical anomalies and a feel for the game and I feel something isn't quite right about it anymore.

 

I have a 54% win rate in most tanks and in the last year I've have these frequent runs of 7-8 losses in a row, one win, then another 5-6 losses in a row.  Same for wins, several in a row, then a loss, then several more wins in a row.  Statistically I find it very hard to believe that should happen very frequently at all.  In fact, with 30k battles now, statistically speaking, that would happen maybe once in every 140 games or so.  But these strings of wins and losses are constant.

Not only are they constant, but they are blowout wins or losses.  Rarely do I see a close game, a real thriller.  It's blowout after blowout after blowout.  There is absolutely nothing fun about a blowout win and crazy frustrating for a blowout loss.  Close games are the ones we all remember and enjoy.  Blowouts are not memorable either way, win or lose.MM does not cause blowouts. Poor players that die early an create a unbalance in HP and DPM cause it. Nothing WG can do about a drop in player skills. No MM can fix that. No company can fix that.

 

My frustration has peaked with the purchase of a Jagdpanzer E100 with 40 battles now and a 37% win rate.  I was really looking forward to this tank too.  However, not one of those games has been anything near a close game.  What prompted me to get on this forum and complain, is that in the last three games, I couldn't even get that slow TD to the front lines to make a difference.  The line would collapse before I could get in position and then I'm surrounded and killed instantly.

 

It was then that I started thinking I really don't like the game anymore This one of the few things you say in this rant that is a great reason to leave this game or any game. Sorry the rest of your rant is frankly Bull droppings. because after 30k games you have a feel for it and I've started to realize something isn't quite right.  The match making is really bad, I mean seriously broken bad and I think there is a reason for it.  I feel like WoT tries to get games over quickly to get players back in the queue so they don't have to wait for a game too long.  So they throw imbalance into the equation more often than not.  These strings of wins and losses statistically should not happen with this frequency. Yes they will its a random MM. Statistically it will happen. It tells me that WoT is playing around with RNG or team balance.  My guess is that RNG is being played around with because in blowout games, my shots will miss or bounce or not pen much more frequently, Seriously you have no facts/recorded stats just a feeling. Everyone has the feeling during losses that something is wrong and bad. During wins everything is great. .

So I'm almost never on these forums.  I've spent some time reading about Matchmaking and the key I see are these blowout games 15-3 wins/losses with several tanks making zero damage.

 

 

 



Ratnikk #7 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 11:06

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Play the tank you enjoy the most, dont force yourself to grind this tank or that tank otherwise you will go crazy with wargaming's garbage vehicle balance and matchmaking. I like to play spg and get insults postgame by victims of my cancer, its always satisfying.

Pipinghot #8 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 12:37

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View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 02:03, said:

I have a 54% win rate in most tanks and in the last year I've have these frequent runs of 7-8 losses in a row, one win, then another 5-6 losses in a row.  Same for wins, several in a row, then a loss, then several more wins in a row.  Statistically I find it very hard to believe that should happen very frequently at all.

1) That can happen in any game.

2) You're not really using statistics, you're just describing your feelings and then falsely typing the word "statistically" in your sentence. Nothing you've said has any statistical validity.

View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 02:03, said:

In fact, with 30k battles now, statistically speaking, that would happen maybe once in every 140 games or so.  But these strings of wins and losses are constant.
No. Still not statistics, you're just describing your feelings, and your feelings are misleading you.

View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 02:03, said:

Not only are they constant, but they are blowout wins or losses.  Rarely do I see a close game, a real thriller.  It's blowout after blowout after blowout.

This is nothing new, it's how the game has always worked. For some reason you're noticing the more, but this game has always has more blowouts than most other games, and that's specifically because it's single-death-per-battle. SDPB is what causes blowouts, and it always has, there's nothing at all new about this. You're having a problem with confirmation bias.

View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 02:03, said:

My frustration has peaked with the purchase of a Jagdpanzer E100 with 40 battles now and a 37% win rate.  I was really looking forward to this tank too.  However, not one of those games has been anything near a close game.  What prompted me to get on this forum and complain, is that in the last three games, I couldn't even get that slow TD to the front lines to make a difference.  The line would collapse before I could get in position and then I'm surrounded and killed instantly.

So you haven't learned how to be good at this vehicle yet, that's neither a mystery nor a big deal. Slow vehicles have more trouble influencing battles which, again, has always been true. Mobility and flexing are a big deal, and that tank doesn't have them.

View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 02:03, said:

I feel like WoT tries to get games over quickly to get players back in the queue so they don't have to wait for a game too long.  So they throw imbalance into the equation more often than not.

The data says that your feelings are incorrect. Battles are slightly shorter than they were when the game was new, in 2011, but that change happened a long time ago, when autoloaders were introduced.

View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 02:03, said:

I feel like WoT tries to get games over quickly to get players back in the queue so they don't have to wait for a game too long.  So they throw imbalance into the equation more often than not.
No, there is no more imbalance in the game than there ever has been. You're just suffering from being burned out about the game and it's affecting your judgement.

View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 02:03, said:

These strings of wins and losses statistically should not happen with this frequency.

That's still not statistics, it's just your feelings and wishful thinking. Strings of wins and losses should happen, you really need to stop thinking that anything you're saying is related to statistics, it's all just your feelings. One of the major reasons for real statistics needing to exist is that feelings cannot be trusted on many issues, and this is one of them.

View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 02:03, said:

It tells me that WoT is playing around with RNG or team balance.

No. You're suffering from burnout and misunderstanding how statistics and win/loss streaks really work.

View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 02:03, said:

My guess is that RNG is being played around with because in blowout games, my shots will miss or bounce or not pen much more frequently, or they will be perfect, on target, and pen constantly.

No. Just no. You need to take a break, everything you're saying is nothing more than good old fashioned confirmation bias, having nothing at all to do with what's really happening.

View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 02:03, said:

So I'm almost never on these forums.  I've spent some time reading about Matchmaking and the key I see are these blowout games 15-3 wins/losses with several tanks making zero damage.  Those games are no fun and fun is the key to keeping players.  Unfortunately, something has happened in this last year that has taken the fun out of the game...  So I guess I'm leaving to find a fun game...

If the game is less fun then you should play something else, that's just a normal, healthy decision. But don't think that you're confirmation bias, and your feelings resulting from burnout, have any relationship to statistics, because they don't. Take a break, have fun playing something else, and while you're doing it throw away your tinfoil hat and let go of nonsense like "RNG is being played around with", that's just silly.



GeorgePreddy #9 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 13:24

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View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 04:03, said:

 I've have these frequent runs of 7-8 losses in a row, one win, then another 5-6 losses in a row.  Same for wins, several in a row, then a loss, then several more wins in a row.  Statistically I find it very hard to believe that should happen very frequently at all.  You simply do not understand how randomness (skill-random MM) works. What you describe is quite normal in randomness.


they are blowout wins or losses.  Read up on Lanchester's Square Law, it explains how the loss of the first player in a battle affects the outcome in a battle with no re-spawns.

 

Jagdpanzer E100 with 40 battles now and a 37% win rate.  Tiny sample size is tiny, report back when you have 300 battles in the tank.  WoT is all about The Law of Large Numbers & you don't have "large numbers" in this tank.

 

I couldn't even get that slow TD to the front lines to make a difference.  That's on you... research tanks more carefully BEFORE purchasing and make more informed decisions.

 

 I feel like WoT tries to get games over quickly...   So they throw imbalance into the equation ... strings of wins and losses statistically should not happen ...  WoT is playing around with RNG or team balance... RNG is being played around with...   All of this part of your post is pure tin foil hat conspiracy theory malarkey.

 

I play arty a lot...  AND that is a problem of your own making, also.

So I guess I'm leaving to find a fun game...  Adios, hope you find that perfect game out there somewhere... GLHF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Badkarma #10 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 13:49

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View Postjdub11, on Jan 06 2019 - 08:21, said:

In a show of solidarity i agree with 90% with what you said. The game really is sucking a$$ lately. I will stick around for a week or so and see if WG admits to thier blunder of a MM with a speedy intent to fix it. Otherwise, I too will step away for a few months. Maybe then I will revisit this game I used to really enjoy with the hopes it was rescued before i totally move on.

 

Cheers

What makes you think that WG will magically decide "admit to thier blunder" within the next week...why this next week in particular? Was there a press conference scheduled this week for an unknown reason? Why not just leave now, why prolong your suffering as I can almost guarantee that the week of January 7th, 2019 was not marked with a big red "X" on their calendar as being the date to "admit thier blunder".



da_Rock002 #11 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 14:09

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View PostPhilthyOne1, on Jan 06 2019 - 02:03, said:

So I've been playing for over five years now and I feel it's time to quit.  Spent a few $'s here and there on the game and do not believe spending $'s gives you any advantage in being put on better teams to win more.  My concern is over some statistical anomalies and a feel for the game and I feel something isn't quite right about it anymore.

 

I have a 54% win rate in most tanks and in the last year I've have these frequent runs of 7-8 losses in a row, one win, then another 5-6 losses in a row.  Same for wins, several in a row, then a loss, then several more wins in a row.  Statistically I find it very hard to believe that should happen very frequently at all.  In fact, with 30k battles now, statistically speaking, that would happen maybe once in every 140 games or so.  But these strings of wins and losses are constant.

Not only are they constant, but they are blowout wins or losses.  Rarely do I see a close game, a real thriller.  It's blowout after blowout after blowout.  There is absolutely nothing fun about a blowout win and crazy frustrating for a blowout loss.  Close games are the ones we all remember and enjoy.  Blowouts are not memorable either way, win or lose.

 

My frustration has peaked with the purchase of a Jagdpanzer E100 with 40 battles now and a 37% win rate.  I was really looking forward to this tank too.  However, not one of those games has been anything near a close game.  What prompted me to get on this forum and complain, is that in the last three games, I couldn't even get that slow TD to the front lines to make a difference.  The line would collapse before I could get in position and then I'm surrounded and killed instantly.

 

It was then that I started thinking I really don't like the game anymore because after 30k games you have a feel for it and I've started to realize something isn't quite right.  The match making is really bad, I mean seriously broken bad and I think there is a reason for it.  I feel like WoT tries to get games over quickly to get players back in the queue so they don't have to wait for a game too long.  So they throw imbalance into the equation more often than not.  These strings of wins and losses statistically should not happen with this frequency.  It tells me that WoT is playing around with RNG or team balance.  My guess is that RNG is being played around with because in blowout games, my shots will miss or bounce or not pen much more frequently, or they will be perfect, on target, and pen constantly.  I play arty a lot, and blowout loss games will have misses that are WELL outside the target cross and land on the border of the ring and sometimes even outside of the ring.  Blowout wins have my arty hitting everything.

So I'm almost never on these forums.  I've spent some time reading about Matchmaking and the key I see are these blowout games 15-3 wins/losses with several tanks making zero damage.  Those games are no fun and fun is the key to keeping players.  Unfortunately, something has happened in this last year that has taken the fun out of the game...  So I guess I'm leaving to find a fun game...

 

 

 

 

Good measured description of your experiences. 

 

Numerous players have described seeing the same flip-flop stringing.   In fact, there are repeated threads that ask if other players quit after 3 losses like they do because they've discovered the losing strings don't seem to be random in length.     It appears a lot of players seriously doubt WG's random is working correctly. 


 

Good luck



FrozenKemp #12 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 14:30

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Statistically speaking, strings of wins/losses are no issue.

Statistically speaking, 38 games is too small a sample to draw conclusions from. 



RECON_RANGER #13 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 14:37

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WG is in the process of fixing the MM.

 

I love blow-out wins.  I wish all my games were blow-out wins. 

 

I play mostly tier 6, 7 and 9 and if you have them tier 8 preferentials shooting a lot of gold at OP 9's or my favorites are tier 7 pref's (M10/E25), but in the end for me tier 4 is the most fun tier. 

 

If you don't have fun playing a LUCH's at tier 4 then quit.  I rarely have blow-out losses in the LUCH's and even so you can usually go kill arty which is always fun. 


Edited by RECON_RANGER, Jan 06 2019 - 14:40.


ViseGrip #14 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 15:56

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HAHAHAHAHAHA.. It's all MM's fault   That's funny chit.....   All the blow out losses/wins I have been in..... See 4,5,6, players with 0 damage and 0 kills..... With only a handful of players getting damage and kills trying to carry a team of stat padders/noobs. But yea it's all MM's fault cause these people don't have any clue on team work or how to play a game of strategy.

Tig_Welder_1 #15 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 16:11

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I think some of you need to get off the forums as you have become a little harsh in your comments back at a person who is simply trying to state their own opinion. To the OP, take a break and come back. Sounds like your burnt out on the game for sure.

 

Best of luck to you



Project100 #16 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 16:18

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View PostTig_Welder_1, on Jan 06 2019 - 10:11, said:

I think some of you need to get off the forums as you have become a little harsh in your comments back at a person who is simply trying to state their own opinion. To the OP, take a break and come back. Sounds like your burnt out on the game for sure.

 

Best of luck to you

 

Harsh? Maybe.

 

Tired of the daily "I'm quitting WoT and here's why" page-long essays? Hell, yes, we are.

 

Some of us move on with our lives, some of us offer a sympathetic reply, and some of us vent our thoughts back at the OP. Welcome to the jungle.



NeatoMan #17 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 16:29

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Higher tiers have always given more blowouts.   If you spent most of your time in the mid tiers, and then moved up to tier 9 10, of course you're going to notice the difference.  IMO, higher tier tank balance is all screwed up, and contributes to the increase.  It also exaggerates any skill difference between players.

StoneTitan #18 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 16:54

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Yes, statistics can work like that, you have to look at the big picture and usually it will be close to 50/50.  If they do try to fix MM as proposed, it still won't be close to fixed but it might be slightly better.  Yes, quit for a month or two or three, then come back and see what's up.  I quit for a year and then came back, but that was more work-life-related than anything else.

 



the_dude_76 #19 Posted Jan 06 2019 - 17:33

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Block Quote

 I feel like WoT tries to get games over quickly to get players back in the queue so they don't have to wait for a game too long.  So they throw imbalance into the equation more often than not.  

 

So WG intentionally frustrates players while they're in a match to prevent those players from becoming frustrated in the queue?? Doesn't seem likely to me.

 

Block Quote

  Statistically I find it very hard to believe that should happen very frequently at all.  In fact, with 30k battles now, statistically speaking, that would happen maybe once in every 140 games or so.

 

And this you've litterally pulled out of your backside. Sounds to me like you'rte having trouble believing something simply because you don't want to believe it.

 



Pipinghot #20 Posted Jan 07 2019 - 05:33

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View Postda_Rock002, on Jan 06 2019 - 08:09, said:

 

 Good measured description of your experiences.

Yes, true, but a really bad understanding of why they happen.

View Postda_Rock002, on Jan 06 2019 - 08:09, said:

Numerous players have described seeing the same flip-flop stringing.

Not just "numerous", it's actually all of the players who see that, and that's because it's perfectly normal. flip-flop stringing happens in every online, team game, because it's perfectly normal. The problem is when someone falsely believes that it shouldn't happen, that's wrongheaded thinking.

View Postda_Rock002, on Jan 06 2019 - 08:09, said:

In fact, there are repeated threads that ask if other players quit after 3 losses like they do because they've discovered the losing strings don't seem to be random in length.

And... those players are wrong, they haven't "discovered" anything, because that's not really a thing. The only good reason to quit after 3 losses is if you have poor self control. There's absolutely nothing in the game that gives you better luck if you quit after three losses, the only benefit is for people who go "on tilt", people who can't control how they respond to losing a few battles. Winning streaks and losing streaks are perfectly normal, the only difference between to players is how well they handle the losing streaks.

View Postda_Rock002, on Jan 06 2019 - 08:09, said:

It appears a lot of players seriously doubt WG's random is working correctly. 

No, tinfoil hatted conspiracy theorists don't understand randomness and game play. Everyone who correctly understands how randomness works, and how win/loss strings work, also understand that the game is working just as it should. Players can either choose to take responsibility for their game play, or they can blame the game because their egos are too weak.

View Postda_Rock002, on Jan 06 2019 - 08:09, said:

Good luck

That's one thing we can all agree on. We can all hope that the OP finds a game that they enjoy more, we should all be playing games for enjoyment.






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