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winrate is not a reflection of player skill


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leeuniverse #241 Posted May 02 2019 - 19:54

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View PostNeatoMan, on May 02 2019 - 11:27, said:

knowing when to cap is a skill.  This is more of a thinking man's game, so if you can cap a win to "inflate" your win rate, you've just displayed better judgement (more skill) than if you fought on and lost.

 

Most people play a variety of tanks, which will tend to have some turds and more OP ones.  Unless you stick to just one tank, or one nation/class then this will also average out.

 

Knowing how to play to your tanks' strengths is also a skill.

 

1. LOL...  Any moron can just run to the cap and cap and win.  That is not "thinking", that's just being a selfish **** cheating everyone else out of XP and performance both your side and the enemy players.

The point of the game is to try and win by killing tanks.  Yes, I'm not against the last min effort to cap for the win if necessary, ACTUALLY "thinking", I do that myself.  But if you didn't notice, I'm talking about "premature" capping.

 

2. As I said, there can be a variety of reasons winrates don't necessarily mean "skill".  What your stating doesn't change what we are saying, except your last couple of words.  If you are sticking to one tank or nation/class then your are by definition within a certain segment of winrate per that tank/nation/class, so it WILL NOT "average out" like you claim, you will be within that winrate range for those tanks.

 

3. Yes, but certain tanks have a MUCH HIGHER skill requirement.

For example, an average pool player with a perfectly balanced and straight pool stick can play almost as well as a professional, but if they have a bent and imbalanced pool cue they won't play very well.

A professional in contrast can still play well even with a crap pool cue.

So, you're ignoring the fact that tanks can be designed in such a way to screw the majority, but not the minority elite, i.e. they have severely diminished returns which in turn would absolutely affect winrates.



Jer1413 #242 Posted May 02 2019 - 20:31

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View Postleeuniverse, on May 02 2019 - 14:54, said:

 

1. LOL...  Any moron can just run to the cap and cap and win.  That is not "thinking", that's just being a selfish **** cheating everyone else out of XP and performance both your side and the enemy players.

The point of the game is to try and win by killing tanks.  Yes, I'm not against the last min effort to cap for the win if necessary, ACTUALLY "thinking", I do that myself.  But if you didn't notice, I'm talking about "premature" capping.

 

 

 

But "premature' capping leads to more losses than wins.

 



cloudwalkr #243 Posted May 02 2019 - 20:37

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Absolutely astounding how clueless op is.

 

"an afk would have a 0 win rate".  Dude doesnt even understand how it's possible for afk to win but wants to put this page of crap out?  lol common...

 

how do some one of you make it through life with the reasoning and logic that some of you have shown to have?

 

this forum is constently filled with people who can't even spell 'lose' correctly and yet this thread is somehow making those people out to be geniouses.


Edited by cloudwalkr, May 02 2019 - 20:46.


da_Rock002 #244 Posted May 02 2019 - 20:51

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Skill does influence WR.    Absolutely. 

Your own individual skill influences WR too.

So does the skill of the 15 players on your team.

And sod does the skill of the 15 enemy players.

 

Ask yourself just how much does your WR predict the outcome of each battle.    To find that out before each battle you'd need to look at 30 WRs, right?    So as yourself, doesn't your WR reflect how good the teams you have drawn from a random matchmaker did against the teams that matchmaker created that your team fought?  


 


 



da_Rock002 #245 Posted May 02 2019 - 21:00

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WR is a very close reflection of the teams you've been on and reflects how good the other teams were as well.

 

 

Unfortunately, your contribution in all that doesn't affect the WR much at all.   For example, I've got 8.5K+  battles and although I was the top player on my team in both DMG and XP in the last battle, the "reflection" on my WR is very, very dim.   Although I damaged 8 enemy, and killed 3, the fact the enemy killed only one of my team is what decided the win for my team more than my performance.  

 

Yeah, WR is made up of 30 reflections, one battle at a time.



NeatoMan #246 Posted May 02 2019 - 21:02

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View PostJer1413, on May 02 2019 - 14:31, said:

But "premature' capping leads to more losses than wins.

This.  I'd like to see someone who inflates his win rate by premature capping.   That's gotta be the dumbest thing I've heard. 

 

As far as Lee's comment about sticking to one class, etc.  He is trying prove that the exception is the rule.  A vast majority of players do not play just one tank.

 

Bent pool cue? That just proves that skill leads to more wins.  Maybe some tanks will exaggerate win rates, making a 60% player into a 65% player, but either way they are still exceptional players.

 

He's trying to argue that since win rate isn't exact, that it isn't a measure of skill. 



Personality #247 Posted May 02 2019 - 21:09

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looks like a beta male telling an alpha male there is no such thing as beta and alpha

Flarvin #248 Posted May 02 2019 - 21:16

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View Postleeuniverse, on May 02 2019 - 13:54, said:

1. LOL...  Any moron can just run to the cap and cap and win.  That is not "thinking", that's just being a selfish **** cheating everyone else out of XP and performance both your side and the enemy players.

 

LOL... you actually think quick capping to pad WR, is a thing. 



Altwar #249 Posted May 02 2019 - 21:27

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View Postleeuniverse, on May 02 2019 - 10:54, said:

 

1. LOL...  Any moron can just run to the cap and cap and win.  That is not "thinking", that's just being a selfish **** cheating everyone else out of XP and performance both your side and the enemy players.

The point of the game is to try and win by killing tanks.  Yes, I'm not against the last min effort to cap for the win if necessary, ACTUALLY "thinking", I do that myself.  But if you didn't notice, I'm talking about "premature" capping.

 

Actually the point of the game is to destroy all the tanks on the other team or capture the base.  Don't agree?  Try reading the terms of winning a battle when loading up a battle the next time.  It is there, simply stated.



cloudwalkr #250 Posted May 02 2019 - 21:33

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View Postda_Rock002, on May 02 2019 - 21:00, said:

WR is a very close reflection of the teams you've been on and reflects how good the other teams were as well.

 

 

Unfortunately, your contribution in all that doesn't affect the WR much at all.   For example, I've got 8.5K+  battles and although I was the top player on my team in both DMG and XP in the last battle, the "reflection" on my WR is very, very dim.   Although I damaged 8 enemy, and killed 3, the fact the enemy killed only one of my team is what decided the win for my team more than my performance.  

 

Yeah, WR is made up of 30 reflections, one battle at a time.

 

you are so very wrong in your assumption and there are a lot of people out there that prove it.

 

If you consistently dmg 8 and kill 3 and do several thousand points worth of dmg EVERY SINGLE GAME WHICH IS WHAT GOOD PLAYERS DO then you will see higher wins.  IT'S REALLY NOT COMPLICATED AND I CAN'T FIGURE OUT WHY PEOPLE MAKE SO MANY EXCUSES.

 

So, yes, one battle might be the outcome of your team and the enemy...but overall if you perform better you win more.  It's simple.  W/R is not a direct reflection of the teams you get, that is like saying the game is rigged and MM dictates your w/r WHICH IS CLEARLY WRONG.

 

your contribution DIRECTLY INFLUENCES YOUR OWN W/R.  Good god people...the excuses some make.



sargev55 #251 Posted May 02 2019 - 21:53

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View Postcloudwalkr, on May 02 2019 - 20:33, said:

 

you are so very wrong in your assumption and there are a lot of people out there that prove it.

 

If you consistently dmg 8 and kill 3 and do several thousand points worth of dmg EVERY SINGLE GAME WHICH IS WHAT GOOD PLAYERS DO then you will see higher wins.  IT'S REALLY NOT COMPLICATED AND I CAN'T FIGURE OUT WHY PEOPLE MAKE SO MANY EXCUSES.

 

So, yes, one battle might be the outcome of your team and the enemy...but overall if you perform better you win more.  It's simple.  W/R is not a direct reflection of the teams you get, that is like saying the game is rigged and MM dictates your w/r WHICH IS CLEARLY WRONG.

 

your contribution DIRECTLY INFLUENCES YOUR OWN W/R.  Good god people...the excuses some make.

 


I guess in the tiers 4-7 where I normally am I just got on really good teams for 55k battles 55-60% of the time  ;)

Exiledcrow #252 Posted May 04 2019 - 01:33

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View PostPersonality, on May 02 2019 - 21:09, said:

looks like a beta male telling an alpha male there is no such thing as beta and alpha

 

Well, there kinda isn't, according the the dude that published the research (on wolves) that has been WILDLY misinterpreted by folks who have zero understanding of biology ... but what would he know about it, right?

 

But even if it were such a thing: If you have to TELL people you're alpha, you're not, you're just a wanna-be.


Edited by Exiledcrow, May 19 2019 - 23:49.


cheapbooks #253 Posted May 19 2019 - 23:10

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View PostNeatoMan, on Apr 18 2019 - 14:06, said:

NO.  That is something your warped little brain keeps coming up with.  That is not what I said.

 

 this is the only true statement you've come up with so far


 

 This is where you go completely wrong.  Bigger contributions are more likely to lead to wins, and low contributions lead to more losses.  That is proven by data on INDIVIDUAL game WN8s vs win rates.   Having a bigger contribution is like weighting a coin; it is more likely to end up heads. Win rate is a measure of that weighting.   You are incorrectly trying to say that because that coin can still land on tails, it negates the fact that the coin is weighted.    If what you said were true everyone would have 50% win rates (minus draws).  That is not happening.

 

 

This makes no sense.   How can something have absolutely no influence over individual battles, yet at the same time show up over time?  If there is no influence in individual battles, then the sum of those individual battles will also show no influence.  Clearly that's not happening.

 

This data here on individual game performance shows that you are completely wrong.  These are the sum of individual game performances for various players.  Every single player analyzed, from purple to tomato, shows that higher individual game performance leads to more wins.  Try to explain how EVERY SINGLE PLAYER loses far more games when they contribute almost nothing to their individual battles, and also wins far more games when they contribute a lot to their individual battles, yet somehow do not influence their individual battles.

 

 

you can check for yourself and download this information from WoTNumbers if you don't believe me.  Every single player you choose will show this effect, even yourself.

 

and you failed to notice that the players with the highest winrates are playing in the lowest average tiers? that is called 'seal clubbing'. that means that players are going into lower tiers, to improve their win rate, to play against new players, and declaring themselves highly skilled, when in fact they are just playing easier games.

NeatoMan #254 Posted May 19 2019 - 23:16

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View Postcheapbooks, on May 19 2019 - 17:10, said:

and you failed to notice that the players with the highest winrates are playing in the lowest average tiers? that is called 'seal clubbing'. that means that players are going into lower tiers, to improve their win rate, to play against new players, and declaring themselves highly skilled, when in fact they are just playing easier games.

WRONG.  look at those examples I provided.  The first guy is a unicum, running 60% win rate, with an average tier of 7.5.  That's hardly seal clubbing.   It clearly shows more good games = higher win rate.



_Tsavo_ #255 Posted May 19 2019 - 23:22

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View PostNeatoMan, on May 19 2019 - 17:16, said:

WRONG.  look at those examples I provided.  The first guy is a unicum, running 60% win rate, with an average tier of 7.5.  That's hardly seal clubbing.   It clearly shows more good games = higher win rate.

 

what this feller said.   High win rates in low tiers are due to relative lack of actual competition, and goes down as you go up in tier.   Good players dont lose most of their games, they'd not be good if that was the case. 

moogleslam #256 Posted May 19 2019 - 23:29

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Oh gosh, couldn't we have just left this thread dead?  We had a 2 week run going! :)

 

cheapbooks, you have been proven wrong on almost every point you've tried to make.  Let it go?



cheapbooks #257 Posted May 19 2019 - 23:42

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FOR THE MATILDA BP (you can login into your WOT client and verify what I say is true):

 

Why is it that if I have more damage, more exp, more spotting, than other players, does that make me a worse player than other players who have substantially higher winrates when they are killing less tanks, doing less damage, and spotting less than me?

 

Since December 2014

 

RANK 84 - "WOT RATING"

RANK 170 - "AVERAGE DAMAGE"

RANK 74 - "AVERAGE EXPERIENCE"

RANK 380 - "AVERAGE VEHICLES DESTROYED"

RANK 986 - "DAMAGE BLOCKED"

RANK 2 - "DAMAGE ASSISTED"

 

RANK 1,631 - "WINRATE"

 

 

 



cheapbooks #258 Posted May 20 2019 - 00:02

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Here are my Hall of Fame stats for the Turan, one of my lowest winrate tanks (2nd lowest) over 150 battles. Again, I outperform other players in almost every measure and am top ranked for spotting yet my winrate is abysmal:

 

RANK 126 - WOT RATING

RANK 144 - AVERAGE DAMAGE

RANK 90 - EXP

RANK 222 - VEHICLES DESTROYED

RANK 9 - ASSISTANCE DAMAGE

 

RANK 829 - WINRATE (44%)

 



grandthefttankV #259 Posted May 20 2019 - 00:07

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Being on a winning team does not make one a winner.

That is why WR doesnt matter.

cheapbooks #260 Posted May 20 2019 - 00:07

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The Pz 4 Hydrostat. This is my 3rd lowest winrate tank over 150 battles (required for viewing stats). Again, I outperform in terms of damage, kills, and spotting, yet my winrate is lower than other players who perform worse than me in the game:

 

RANK 102 - WOT RATING

RANK 153 - DAMAGE CAUSED

RANK 100 - EXP

RANK 196 - VEHICLES DESTROYED

RANK 3 - SPOTTING (do you see a trend here, I am such a lousy spotter I can never get #1)

 

RANK 361 - WINRATE (43.4%)






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