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winrate is not a reflection of player skill


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Trakks #521 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 11:27

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I've always said that you can be the best player on the worst teams and have a low winrate because the teams you get put on lose more often than they win and the reverse is also true. Be the worst player on all the best teams and your win rate will still go up even though you suck because the teams you are on carry you. 

_Tsavo_ #522 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 11:29

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View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 23 2019 - 23:00, said:

this is a table that shows my winrates for various tanks and the progress on marks of excellence. As you can see, I have low winrates on tanks that I outperform most other players with.

 

so which is it, am I a skilled player in these tanks or not?

 

 

  WINRATE MARKS OF EXC
ARL V39 30% 63%
A44 36% 56%
Tiger 131 38% 52%
Charioteer 39% 51%
Pz Mutz 39% 62%
Rhm Pzw 40% 57%
Ikv 65 II 41% 56%
M41 HMC 42% 57%
M41 Bulldog 42% 63%
M4 Improved 43% 79%
Hydrostat 43% 76%
S51 44% 63%
Turan 44% 80%
Scorpion 44% 72%
Kan J PZ 44% 75%
Centurian I 45% 72%
T49 46% 71%

 

No, you are not a skilled player in those tanks. 



Avalon304 #523 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 11:46

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View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 23 2019 - 20:44, said:

all of you who disagree with me need to educate me. I just do not understand stats. clearly my winrate says I am an average player. or as some of you like to say, a below average player.

 

I do not understand why most of my 154 tanks say that I have 1 or 2 gun marks at the 65% or 85% ratio.

 

the part I do not understand is why I have these gun marks by playing so average / below average. how can a loser like me, a below average player with tomato WN8 have gun marks on most of my tanks? do I have tomato marks? I have many tanks with 2 gun marks. I must be doing something wrong getting better performance than 85% of players by being better than only 50% of players.

 

please educate me

 

So first off getting 1 MOE is literally participation trophy. Its something you just get by not being a turbo-bad. As a 49% player you should be getting atleast that much on any tank you play regularly. So lets not be super proud of it.

 

Secondly: Of the tanks you have two marked (9 of them), 7 of them are in the tier 5-6 bracket, and the majority of them are tanks that have pref MM. Congrats youre playing tanks that have a handicap and farming damage in them.

 

Beyond both of those things: MOEs are damage agnostic. They dont distinguish between damage done early in the match (super important to actively winning) and damage done late in the match after the battle outcome has been solidified (also known as trash damage). Getting gun marks isnt about winning. Its about causing consistent damage and allowing your team to cause consistent damage (assist damage is part of the MOE calculation).  To put this in perspective: if you do 2k damage in the opening stages of a battle you are giving your team an HP advantage that they can capitalize on. Doing that same 2k damage at the end of the match, when your team is up 10 tanks to 4 isnt meaningful. Youre team is already winning in the latter scenario, and your just hoovering up trash.

 

Additionally MOEs only take into account the last 14 days in a given tank, meaning its not a consistent tally. For instance, when rental premiums come out, the MOE expected valus often drop and players can see drastic shifts in thier MOE percentage (Ive seen upwards of a 20% jump after one battle). They can be a good indicator of how well a person gels with a certain tank, but can not be viewed alone (much like win rate, wn8 and average damage cant be viewed alone to assess skill).

 

Your win rate says your an average player because you are. You dont have the skills necessary to properly position your tanks and cause damage where it matters and do it consistently. You may have good games, every one does, but often your just along for the ride instead of being one of the ones to push the tempo in a match and to create advantages for your team. Players with higher winrates can do that more consistently.

 

Looking at all the relevant metrics instead of just cherry picking 1 (MOEs) shows me that you are just an average player thats along for the ride more often than not. Your average damage is low in most tanks (especially for the tiers they occupy). Doing less than 2k damage on average in tier 9 and 10 vehicles is not good and is generally a detriment to your team, you dont consistently hit your shots and you farm damage late in the game.

 

Youre right when you say you dont understand stats. Theres a reason they exist. In sports and in video games. Youre too focused on ONE stat. But one stat never shows the full picture. Theres no sigular stat that shows a players skill. Stats are about loonking at the big picture and taking in all available data: Win rate, WN8, Average Tier, Average Damage (per tank and per tier), MOEs, hit rate Average XP per battle, Damage ratio, Kill ratio, Average vehicles destroyed per battle. Its not about looking at one battle or 10 battles or even 50 battles, its about looking at a players performance over hundreds of battles. Over thousands of battles. Stats show trends at those kinds of sample sizes. They show how YOU as a player perform on average. Not your teams. YOU. They are directly coupled to your performance over long periods of time and over many battles. Period.

 

View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 24 2019 - 02:13, said:

 

hi, you are clearly a much better player than me, based on your stats. so I think i can learn something from watching your youtube videos.

 

I especially would like your opinion on how you leveled up your tier 4 matilda as you mention in this video:

https://youtu.be/w6HJK3eo4Ds?t=470

 

I tried to find your performance in your vehicle list on your in game stats page but it says you never played the tier 4 matilda? I do not understand?

 

its like your tier 4 matilda stats got erased from your account? I am confused! when I look at my account, I see every game I played including the very first one. 

 

hmmm... 

 

 

 

 

 

A picture from Taugrim's stats page on worldoftanks.com:

 

Well... look at that... 315 battles in a tier 4 Matilda. Its almost as if videos can be prerecorded and then uploaded at a later point while the player in question has progressed their account further.

 

View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 23 2019 - 21:23, said:

 

there are 15 sets of SPG missions minimum required to win a Stug IV. you won the Stug IV in 5 SPG battles which is impossible.

 

 

So its clear you dont actually understand how the Personal Mission system works. Heres how it works:

 

In the first season there were 5 sets of missions per reward tank (Light Tanks, Medium Tanks, Heavy Tanks, Tank Destroyers and SPGs). If you completed LT-15, MT-15, HT-15, and TD-15 with honors, you were given 4 orders. You could then take those 4 orders and use themto completely skip SPG-15 without ever having to touch an SPG. And you could do this for each of the 4 reward tanks. Meaning its completely possible to get every reward tank from the first seasion (StuG IV, T28 HTC, T-55A and Obj. 260) without ever touching an SPG.

 

If youre really savvy and understand how the system works you can even get the Obj. 260 and only have to complete 1 set of 15 missions in its campaign. heres a picture form my account, showing that while Ive gotten the Obj. 260 Ive only completed the light tanks mission set in the campaign:

 

Spoiler

 

15 LT missions, 5 MT missions, 4 HT missions, 10 TD missions and 6 SPG missions completed, yet I have the Obj. 260 in my garage because I have 16 orders committed to missions in the Obj. 260 campaign (15 from the first 3 campaigns + 1 from the LT set int he 260 campaign). So...take the time to learn the system and you'll realize that you dont need to play SPGs to get the rewards from the first season. (The second season is slightly different and does have a few required SPG missions in it).


Edited by Avalon304, Jun 24 2019 - 11:54.


NeatoMan #524 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 12:48

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View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 23 2019 - 22:44, said:

all of you who disagree with me need to educate me. I just do not understand stats. clearly my winrate says I am an average player. or as some of you like to say, a below average player.

 

I do not understand why most of my 154 tanks say that I have 1 or 2 gun marks at the 65% or 85% ratio.

 

the part I do not understand is why I have these gun marks by playing so average / below average. how can a loser like me, a below average player with tomato WN8 have gun marks on most of my tanks? do I have tomato marks? I have many tanks with 2 gun marks. I must be doing something wrong getting better performance than 85% of players by being better than only 50% of players.

 

please educate me

You've made that obvious

 

gun marks only show your maximum performance over a short span of games.  You don't lose them once you get them.  You want to look for statistics that measure your current performance.

 

You've been told what statistics to look at, you just don't want to hear it, because they don't tell you what you want.   DPG, KPG, Assist DPG, DDR, etc.   All those stats put you at slightly above average.  Your win rate is also slightly above average.  It may be slightly low for your stats, but isn't that far off.  Your win rate is in line with all the relevant stats that correlate with winning.  



Markd73 #525 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 14:09

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View Postspud_tuber, on Jun 24 2019 - 04:13, said:

Is this guy a troll, or is he really this ignorant?

yes



cheapbooks #526 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 14:38

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View PostAvalon304, on Jun 24 2019 - 11:46, said:

 

So first off getting 1 MOE is literally participation trophy. Its something you just get by not being a turbo-bad. As a 49% player you should be getting atleast that much on any tank you play regularly. So lets not be super proud of it.

 

Secondly: Of the tanks you have two marked (9 of them), 7 of them are in the tier 5-6 bracket, and the majority of them are tanks that have pref MM. Congrats youre playing tanks that have a handicap and farming damage in them.

 

Beyond both of those things: MOEs are damage agnostic. They dont distinguish between damage done early in the match (super important to actively winning) and damage done late in the match after the battle outcome has been solidified (also known as trash damage). Getting gun marks isnt about winning. Its about causing consistent damage and allowing your team to cause consistent damage (assist damage is part of the MOE calculation).  To put this in perspective: if you do 2k damage in the opening stages of a battle you are giving your team an HP advantage that they can capitalize on. Doing that same 2k damage at the end of the match, when your team is up 10 tanks to 4 isnt meaningful. Youre team is already winning in the latter scenario, and your just hoovering up trash.

 

Additionally MOEs only take into account the last 14 days in a given tank, meaning its not a consistent tally. For instance, when rental premiums come out, the MOE expected valus often drop and players can see drastic shifts in thier MOE percentage (Ive seen upwards of a 20% jump after one battle). They can be a good indicator of how well a person gels with a certain tank, but can not be viewed alone (much like win rate, wn8 and average damage cant be viewed alone to assess skill).

 

Your win rate says your an average player because you are. You dont have the skills necessary to properly position your tanks and cause damage where it matters and do it consistently. You may have good games, every one does, but often your just along for the ride instead of being one of the ones to push the tempo in a match and to create advantages for your team. Players with higher winrates can do that more consistently.

 

Looking at all the relevant metrics instead of just cherry picking 1 (MOEs) shows me that you are just an average player thats along for the ride more often than not. Your average damage is low in most tanks (especially for the tiers they occupy). Doing less than 2k damage on average in tier 9 and 10 vehicles is not good and is generally a detriment to your team, you dont consistently hit your shots and you farm damage late in the game.

 

Youre right when you say you dont understand stats. Theres a reason they exist. In sports and in video games. Youre too focused on ONE stat. But one stat never shows the full picture. Theres no sigular stat that shows a players skill. Stats are about loonking at the big picture and taking in all available data: Win rate, WN8, Average Tier, Average Damage (per tank and per tier), MOEs, hit rate Average XP per battle, Damage ratio, Kill ratio, Average vehicles destroyed per battle. Its not about looking at one battle or 10 battles or even 50 battles, its about looking at a players performance over hundreds of battles. Over thousands of battles. Stats show trends at those kinds of sample sizes. They show how YOU as a player perform on average. Not your teams. YOU. They are directly coupled to your performance over long periods of time and over many battles. Period.

 

 

 

A picture from Taugrim's stats page on worldoftanks.com:

 

Well... look at that... 315 battles in a tier 4 Matilda. Its almost as if videos can be prerecorded and then uploaded at a later point while the player in question has progressed their account further.

 

 

 

So its clear you dont actually understand how the Personal Mission system works. Heres how it works:

 

In the first season there were 5 sets of missions per reward tank (Light Tanks, Medium Tanks, Heavy Tanks, Tank Destroyers and SPGs). If you completed LT-15, MT-15, HT-15, and TD-15 with honors, you were given 4 orders. You could then take those 4 orders and use themto completely skip SPG-15 without ever having to touch an SPG. And you could do this for each of the 4 reward tanks. Meaning its completely possible to get every reward tank from the first seasion (StuG IV, T28 HTC, T-55A and Obj. 260) without ever touching an SPG.

 

If youre really savvy and understand how the system works you can even get the Obj. 260 and only have to complete 1 set of 15 missions in its campaign. heres a picture form my account, showing that while Ive gotten the Obj. 260 Ive only completed the light tanks mission set in the campaign:

 

Spoiler

 

15 LT missions, 5 MT missions, 4 HT missions, 10 TD missions and 6 SPG missions completed, yet I have the Obj. 260 in my garage because I have 16 orders committed to missions in the Obj. 260 campaign (15 from the first 3 campaigns + 1 from the LT set int he 260 campaign). So...take the time to learn the system and you'll realize that you dont need to play SPGs to get the rewards from the first season. (The second season is slightly different and does have a few required SPG missions in it).

 

I don't understand why the page i looked at did not show any gameplay in that tank.



ethics_gradient #527 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 14:41

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View PostMarkd73, on Jun 24 2019 - 08:09, said:

yes

The guy is a troll (I hope for his sake).  He just starts threads with the most idiotic OP's possible to try to trigger rehashes of old discussions.



Hellsfog #528 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 14:50

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View Postethics_gradient, on Jun 24 2019 - 08:41, said:

The guy is a troll (I hope for his sake).  He just starts threads with the most idiotic OP's possible to try to trigger rehashes of old discussions.

He's a barely average player trying to farm clicks for his collection of YouTube videos which give surprisingly poor advice about how to be barely average. As for his intelligence, taugrim hit the nail on the head with the very last part of this post:

View Posttaugrim, on Jun 23 2019 - 23:27, said:

 

“One of the major difficulties Trillian experienced in her relationship with Zaphod was learning to distinguish between him pretending to be stupid just to get people off their guard, pretending to be stupid because he couldn't be bothered to think and wanted someone else to do it for him, pretending to be outrageously stupid to hide the fact that he actually didn’t understand what was going on, and really being genuinely stupid.” 


― Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

 



Jer1413 #529 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 14:50

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View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 24 2019 - 09:38, said:

 

I don't understand why the page i looked at did not show any gameplay in that tank.

 

Seems to be a lot you don't understand.



cloudwalkr #530 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 17:20

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View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 24 2019 - 14:38, said:

 

 

 

Add it to the list of things you have no clue about...and never will.   Holy ever loving crap...books.  Holy crap holy crap holy crap.

 

you've solidified yourself as a member of a VERY select group of people that seem to enjoy coming to the forums and displaying stupidity, ignorance, narsasism, dunning Kruger, a complete break with reality...all of it.  

 

And people still try to actually respond to you, it's impressive.



CallandorsFire #531 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 18:42

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View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 23 2019 - 23:23, said:

 

there are 15 sets of SPG missions minimum required to win a Stug IV. you won the Stug IV in 5 SPG battles which is impossible.

I won the the Stug IV also by just playing four classes with honors, no arty at all.  Your problem is that once you think you have the answer, you don't consider that you might be wrong, which is a failure many people exhibit.  The cure is to realize that maybe you aren't as smart as you think you are, or you don't have all the answers.  Too difficult?

 

And by the way, I don't have a single tank that's two-marked, yet my winrate is higher than yours.  Figure out that relevance.



Jer1413 #532 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 19:14

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View PostTrakks, on Jun 24 2019 - 06:27, said:

I've always said that you can be the best player on the worst teams and have a low winrate because the teams you get put on lose more often than they win and the reverse is also true. Be the worst player on all the best teams and your win rate will still go up even though you suck because the teams you are on carry you. 

 

...and you've always been wrong...

 



moogleslam #533 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 21:44

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View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 24 2019 - 09:38, said:

 

I don't understand why the page i looked at did not show any gameplay in that tank.

 

What page was that?

 

I ask because so far, you've been getting your data from a lot of strange sources.



DeviouslyCursed #534 Posted Jun 24 2019 - 22:32

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View Postmoogleslam, on Jun 24 2019 - 21:44, said:

 

What page was that?

 

I ask because so far, you've been getting your data from a lot of strange sources.

 

Ouija Board by Hasbro.



cheapbooks #535 Posted Jun 26 2019 - 02:52

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A lot of players have low winrates because of stat padders.

 

I play a lot of SPG because of my 300ms ping time and packet loss. So I see a lot of end games. I see a lot of games where we have a big numerical advantage and we lose the game because of stat-padding players:

 

- refuse to cap even though it is the best strategy to win the game, because they wish to farm damage

- refuse to engage in team work, insisting on farming damage even if it means they will die and the enemy will survive

- refuse to play their tank properly (refusing to scout with a light tank for example) because they want to farm damage

 

 



NeatoMan #536 Posted Jun 26 2019 - 04:07

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View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 25 2019 - 20:52, said:

A lot of players have low winrates because of stat padders.

 

I play a lot of SPG because of my 300ms ping time and packet loss. So I see a lot of end games. I see a lot of games where we have a big numerical advantage and we lose the game because of stat-padding players:

 

- refuse to cap even though it is the best strategy to win the game, because they wish to farm damage

- refuse to engage in team work, insisting on farming damage even if it means they will die and the enemy will survive

- refuse to play their tank properly (refusing to scout with a light tank for example) because they want to farm damage

like you are the only person it ever happens to.   :sceptic:

 

If you say half the stuff in chat that you did in this thread, maybe they are doing it on purpose just to spite you.



cKy_ #537 Posted Jun 26 2019 - 04:31

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View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 26 2019 - 13:52, said:

A lot of players have low winrates because of stat padders.

 

I play a lot of SPG because of my 300ms ping time and packet loss. So I see a lot of end games. I see a lot of games where we have a big numerical advantage and we lose the game because of stat-padding players:

 

- refuse to cap even though it is the best strategy to win the game, because they wish to farm damage

- refuse to engage in team work, insisting on farming damage even if it means they will die and the enemy will survive

- refuse to play their tank properly (refusing to scout with a light tank for example) because they want to farm damage

 

 

 

How about instead of focusing on other peoples gameplay, you instead focus on improving your own. Play a class that enables you to have a consistent contribution to your team (300ms is not a valid excuse for playing arty. Play arty if you want to play arty, don't make excuses up for it). 

 

"I see a lot of games where we have a big numerical advantage and we lose the game because of stat-padding players". No, you don't. I know that "a lot" has no set value to it, but it is still an overstatement. I'd wager that saying "a few" or "a couple" is a lot more accurate.

 

I'm genuinely shocked that this thread has been going for 27 pages. Simply amazing.



cheapbooks #538 Posted Jun 26 2019 - 06:41

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View PostAvalon304, on Jun 24 2019 - 11:46, said:

 

You may have good games, every one does, but often your just along for the ride instead of being one of the ones to push the tempo in a match and to create advantages for your team.

 

You are stating the exact opposite, I play in front of my allies and do not ever like my allies to be in front of me. It is me who leads the team into battle, not the other way around. Anyone who watches my videos on a regular basis knows this is how I play. I absolutely 100% guarantee you that I have unicum level gameplay in my games that you have never seen on anyone else's replay. You have merely chosen not to see it because you judge people by the wrong stats.



cheapbooks #539 Posted Jun 26 2019 - 06:45

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View PostcKy_, on Jun 26 2019 - 04:31, said:

 

 (300ms is not a valid excuse for playing arty. Play arty if you want to play arty, don't make excuses up for it). 

 

 

300ms and packet loss is the reason to play arty. so when your game disconnects and the client crashes and you have to reload the client, log back in, and get back into the game a minute later, you won't be killed by a stat padder while you were AFK.

 

and so that when you are driving and your tank is headed towards the water and you have suddenly 999ms ping and you can't steer the tank and you watch slowly as your tank is headed into a deep lake or off a cliff, and you die in the first 30 seconds of the game with 0 damage and 0 spotting damage, well that doesn't happen when you play arty with lag and packet loss.

 

but you sure get a low of know-it-alls who think that winrates are a reflection of player skill even though it is a team metric and not an individual metric.

 

and you wonder why none of the purple super unicums had top placement in the ranked battle leaderboard. stat padding is not player skill.

 

I looked at a random selection of top players by winrate and other metrics and 50% clearly re-rolled, they often free exp'd through tiers 1 thru 5. not 5%, not 25%, but 50% of the top players did this

 

players with 65% winrates who had 0 battles in tier 1 are stat padders.


Edited by cheapbooks, Jun 26 2019 - 06:49.


Avalon304 #540 Posted Jun 26 2019 - 07:11

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View Postcheapbooks, on Jun 25 2019 - 22:41, said:

 

You are stating the exact opposite, I play in front of my allies and do not ever like my allies to be in front of me. It is me who leads the team into battle, not the other way around. Anyone who watches my videos on a regular basis knows this is how I play. I absolutely 100% guarantee you that I have unicum level gameplay in my games that you have never seen on anyone else's replay. You have merely chosen not to see it because you judge people by the wrong stats.

 

Having just scrubbed through a lot of your videos I see I was indeed correct: You are far too passive and are merely along for the ride in many of the battles you posted, while simultaniously not doing enough damage to actively influence wins. I see no unicum level gameplay in ANY of the games youve posted. Anyone who uses your videos as a learning aid is gonna find that they lose battles more often than they win. Also... stop carrying any HEAT in your Sheridan. Its a terrible idea.






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