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Confirmation Bias or a Game Feature?


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Saffron_Blaze #1 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 04:57

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I have started calling it the denial of the kill shot. One of the way it manifests itself is a low roll allowing an opponent's tank to survive a shot that is well within the alpha range of the round. It typically leaves them with HPs in the low single/double digits. However, there is also the unexpected bounce or non-penetration hit that leaves what would otherwise be a helpless opponent (e.g. an arty piece two tiers down) alive and fighting.

 

I have always assumed this was a form of confirmation bias in that each time it occurred it contributed to me to believing it was a feature of the game. The problem was I could not figure out why WG would incorporate this as a feature of the game mechanics. Most of what they do seems designed to speed games up and this runs counter to that theme.

 

So, is the denial of the kill shot a real thing or just correspondent inference?



alphadogg64 #2 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 05:08

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Notice how you only notice/pay attention to low rolls that aren't on the extreme side of low rolls (min rolls and such) when you're shooting supposed one shots?

WIZD #3 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 05:15

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True op. Although it's RNG so there is that.

Saffron_Blaze #4 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 05:19

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View Postalphadogg64, on Aug 21 2019 - 05:08, said:

Notice how you only notice/pay attention to low rolls that aren't on the extreme side of low rolls (min rolls and such) when you're shooting supposed one shots?

 

For the most part I just focus on winning. I leave analysis to replays and the occasional screenshot. However, once you become suspicious of a thing it can creep into how you play and what you note.



bgmp14 #5 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 05:21

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Consider how likely it is for a tank to be left with 1hp and then think how often you saw that happen. I do not think this is just confirmation bias.

Eeveelutions #6 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 05:22

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inb4 getting kill shot with a max roll

Saffron_Blaze #7 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 05:30

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View Postbgmp14, on Aug 21 2019 - 05:21, said:

Consider how likely it is for a tank to be left with 1hp and then think how often you saw that happen. I do not think this is just confirmation bias.

 

Good point. I saw a roving crapbarn hit a nearly full T-127 the last night I played and left it with 1 HP. The roving crapbarn then got dismantled by the little autoloader.



Copacetic #8 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 05:34

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View Postbgmp14, on Aug 21 2019 - 05:21, said:

Consider how likely it is for a tank to be left with 1hp and then think how often you saw that happen. I do not think this is just confirmation bias.

they have a saving roll I think


Edited by Copacetic, Aug 21 2019 - 05:34.


alphadogg64 #9 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 05:37

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View PostCopacetic, on Aug 21 2019 - 04:34, said:

they have a saving roll I think

 

Why'd you edit your original message?



Copacetic #10 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 05:50

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View Postalphadogg64, on Aug 21 2019 - 05:37, said:

 

Why'd you edit your original message?

cause I wanted too


Edited by Copacetic, Aug 21 2019 - 05:53.


alphadogg64 #11 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 05:54

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View PostCopacetic, on Aug 21 2019 - 04:50, said:

cause I wanted too noob

 

no your the noob



GeorgePreddy #12 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 06:07

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tin foil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Markd73 #13 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 15:49

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Sounds more specifically like negativity bias. 

 

"The negative bias is our tendency not only to register negative stimuli more readily but also to dwell on these events. Also known as positive-negative asymmetry, this negativity bias means that we feel the sting of a rebuke more powerfully than we feel the joy of praise."

 

Source

https://www.verywellmind.com/negative-bias-4589618

 



Tao_Te_Tomato #14 Posted Aug 21 2019 - 15:58

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View PostMarkd73, on Aug 21 2019 - 15:49, said:

Sounds more specifically like negativity bias. 

 

"The negative bias is our tendency not only to register negative stimuli more readily but also to dwell on these events. Also known as positive-negative asymmetry, this negativity bias means that we feel the sting of a rebuke more powerfully than we feel the joy of praise."

 

Source

https://www.verywellmind.com/negative-bias-4589618

 

 

Sounds right.  The "What the HECK???" moments of single digit HPs remaining after the smoke clears are definitely more memorable than regular kills or regular damages done.

 

It is one of my more favorite feelz in the game, though, I will admit.

 

The games where I've *been* that single digit HP vehicle are also memorable.  :teethhappy:



Saffron_Blaze #15 Posted Aug 23 2019 - 03:08

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View PostMarkd73, on Aug 21 2019 - 15:49, said:

Sounds more specifically like negativity bias. 

 

"The negative bias is our tendency not only to register negative stimuli more readily but also to dwell on these events. Also known as positive-negative asymmetry, this negativity bias means that we feel the sting of a rebuke more powerfully than we feel the joy of praise."

 

Source

https://www.verywellmind.com/negative-bias-4589618

 

That does seem like a more correct concept, but I am not convinced what I described is just some sort of bias. It is just too frequent of an occurrence given how often it should occur statistically. Not bothered if they do have such a scheme, although I would be interested in knowing what purpose it serves.



13Jake55 #16 Posted Aug 23 2019 - 03:11

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View Postbgmp14, on Aug 21 2019 - 05:21, said:

Consider how likely it is for a tank to be left with 1hp and then think how often you saw that happen. I do not think this is just confirmation bias.

Had this happen to me today. Was suprised I lasted another 3 minutes. Lol.



Saffron_Blaze #17 Posted Aug 23 2019 - 20:32

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View Post13Jake55, on Aug 23 2019 - 03:11, said:

Had this happen to me today. Was suprised I lasted another 3 minutes. Lol.

 

Well, it is known that WG toyed with the idea of varying sigma values for gun dispersion to increase TTK (Time to Kill). Maybe denial of kill shot was a way for them to get what they wanted without annoying their most ardent fans.



the_Deadly_Bulb #18 Posted Aug 23 2019 - 20:37

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View PostSaffron_Blaze, on Aug 20 2019 - 20:19, said:

 

For the most part I just focus on winning. I leave analysis to replays and the occasional screenshot. However, once you become suspicious of a thing it can creep into how you play and what you note.

Which is...

at work.

Some folks don't need to order them, it can seem they were installed at birth. :D

 

They also say

, however its also important to realise that your reality, while very real to you, may not be shared by others. :honoring:


Edited by the_Deadly_Bulb, Aug 23 2019 - 20:41.


Vulcan_Spectre #19 Posted Aug 23 2019 - 20:43

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View Postthe_Deadly_Bulb, on Aug 23 2019 - 14:37, said:

Which is...

at work.

Some folks don't need to order them, it can seem they were installed at birth. :D

 

They also say

, however its also important to realise that your reality, while very real to you, may not be shared by others. :honoring:

Wow, deep


Edited by Vulcan_Spectre, Aug 23 2019 - 20:44.


Saffron_Blaze #20 Posted Aug 23 2019 - 21:10

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View PostVulcan_Spectre, on Aug 23 2019 - 20:43, said:

Wow, deep

 

Not really, as it is rather redundant given the title of the thread/OP. You can't be considered very deep if all you do is pick up on the concept the OP puts forward in the first place.






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