Jump to content


Blowouts-you should expect them to happen


  • Please log in to reply
11 replies to this topic

sksmith #1 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 02:38

    Corporal

  • Players
  • 14593 battles
  • 33
  • Member since:
    03-01-2012

Simple math says that if, on average, 15-15 will yield a 50-50 split in who suffers a tank loss, then once that happens, 

and the sides are 15-14, one would expect the side with 14 to have a greater than 50% chance of the next tank loss.  And if that happens, and the battle is now 15-13, an even greater likelihood of suffering the next loss, and so on and so on.  It doesn't often happen that a game goes 15-0 because of natural variation and randomness, but the snowball trend in a match is built into how casualties occur.

 

In other words, even matches shouldn't go 1-0.  They should tend to blowouts.  How much? An interesting mathematical exercise that someone (other than me) should do.  (you could build a statistical decision tree for each combination: 15-15 down to each possible end result (from 15-0 to 1-0).  But however you define blowouts (15-5 or less, or 15-2 or less, or whatever) the simple math (once one side has an advantage, that advantage should grow) suggests that blowout are entirely expected.

 

s



_Tsavo_ #2 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 02:49

    Major

  • Beta Testers
  • 46533 battles
  • 19,882
  • [RELIC] RELIC
  • Member since:
    02-16-2011

Also known as the cascade, the snowball, the rout.  

 

"buT iTs ALl tHE tEamS Im ON" - random Pubbie who does on a 3 v 3 starting the avalanche.  It's single death, once you're down 4+ tanks, it's GG.  Keep fighting, you MIGHT turn it, but it's not likely. 



NeatoMan #3 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 03:08

    Major

  • Players
  • 28209 battles
  • 20,762
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011
it's mainly down to deployment, and local skirmishes.  It's never 15 firing on 15, but a handful against two, three, or more, depending on how they deployed.   If the ones with the local superiority in either numbers or tank composition take advantage of it, then they get the ball rolling.   All it takes is for them not to be a bunch of wusses who cower behind rocks and buildings at the first sight of the enemy.   Wussiness and timid play will never generate a blowout..... don't be a wuss.

HeraldricKnight #4 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 03:57

    Captain

  • Players
  • 8751 battles
  • 1,011
  • Member since:
    11-05-2012

The general thing I've noticed since really playing Light Tanks is that you'll feed early information to the rest of your team, but they won't react to that information. When they don't react, it's like slow boiling; they run headlong into things they should avoid and eventually get routed, which leads to 'Lights didn't spot' or 'Report the Lights for not spotting'. That's how snowballs start happening. 

 

Especially on maps like Prokorovka, where the number of Lights determines who gets the spots, players tend to think how other players should play instead of understanding what is actually happening. 

 

If I, in my HWK12, don't go 0-1 line and instead go to the hill and spot from the bushes overlooking the encounter cap (which is incredibly potent for both sides), I'll get blamed for the deaths at the 0-1 line and the eventual sweep from the backline, despite how much spotting damage I do on the other side of the map. 

 

 



GeorgePreddy #5 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 05:14

    Major

  • Players
  • 14680 battles
  • 13,677
  • Member since:
    04-11-2013

The general concensus in WoT is that a blowout is a battle where all tanks are destroyed on the losing team when only 4 or less (or 5 or less) tanks are destroyed on the winning team.

 

Depending on which of those results are what you believe to be a blowout, the normal % of blowout random battles serverwide would be about 31% to 37%. In my experience, that is about what they are actually.

 

 

 

 

 

 



NeatoMan #6 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 14:52

    Major

  • Players
  • 28209 battles
  • 20,762
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011

View PostGeorgePreddy, on Oct 21 2019 - 23:14, said:

The general concensus in WoT is that a blowout is a battle where all tanks are destroyed on the losing team when only 4 or less (or 5 or less) tanks are destroyed on the winning team.

 

Depending on which of those results are what you believe to be a blowout, the normal % of blowout random battles serverwide would be about 31% to 37%. In my experience, that is about what they are actually.

it's less than that, and is tier dependent. Only in the highest tiers do you approach percentages around 30%



VooDooKobra #7 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 15:01

    Major

  • Players
  • 10046 battles
  • 5,994
  • [MOVE] MOVE
  • Member since:
    04-23-2011

View PostHeraldricKnight, on Oct 21 2019 - 19:57, said:

The general thing I've noticed since really playing Light Tanks is that you'll feed early information to the rest of your team, but they won't react to that information. When they don't react, it's like slow boiling; they run headlong into things they should avoid and eventually get routed, which leads to 'Lights didn't spot' or 'Report the Lights for not spotting'. That's how snowballs start happening. 

 

Especially on maps like Prokorovka, where the number of Lights determines who gets the spots, players tend to think how other players should play instead of understanding what is actually happening. 

 

If I, in my HWK12, don't go 0-1 line and instead go to the hill and spot from the bushes overlooking the encounter cap (which is incredibly potent for both sides), I'll get blamed for the deaths at the 0-1 line and the eventual sweep from the backline, despite how much spotting damage I do on the other side of the map. 

 

 

one mistake i still make at times in my light tanks is that i rush to my spot before the guys i am spotting for are even ready fo fire their first shot.  



HeraldricKnight #8 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 15:08

    Captain

  • Players
  • 8751 battles
  • 1,011
  • Member since:
    11-05-2012

View PostVooDooKobra, on Oct 22 2019 - 14:01, said:

one mistake i still make at times in my light tanks is that i rush to my spot before the guys i am spotting for are even ready fo fire their first shot.  

 

That's not a big a mistake as people make it out to be. The most important thing you're doing is feeding information to your team, even though they can't shoot them, they're aware of what is coming.



Tao_Te_Tomato #9 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 15:14

    Major

  • -Players-
  • 27827 battles
  • 2,788
  • [TER] TER
  • Member since:
    02-28-2016

View PostVooDooKobra, on Oct 22 2019 - 15:01, said:

one mistake i still make at times in my light tanks is that i rush to my spot before the guys i am spotting for are even ready fo fire their first shot.  

 

I don't know that that's a mistake, unless you mean you're actively spotting (vice passive).  If you wait to get to the spot then you risk THEIR lights being set up or catching you on the way there, no?  Not to mention that the sooner the eyes are in place, the sooner a "good" team can start using the info to set up.



ethics_gradient #10 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 15:28

    Major

  • Players
  • 41991 battles
  • 2,382
  • [DHO-X] DHO-X
  • Member since:
    04-22-2011
I think that autoloaders contribute to the likelihood of blowouts.  Before autoloaders, if you made a mistake, you might be hit once.  But now, if you make a mistake, you might eat an entire clip, especially if they are in a position to keep you permatracked.

Markd73 #11 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 16:25

    Major

  • Players
  • 32795 battles
  • 5,528
  • Member since:
    04-20-2011

View PostHeraldricKnight, on Oct 22 2019 - 02:57, said:

The general thing I've noticed since really playing Light Tanks is that you'll feed early information to the rest of your team, but they won't react to that information. When they don't react, it's like slow boiling; they run headlong into things they should avoid and eventually get routed, which leads to 'Lights didn't spot' or 'Report the Lights for not spotting'. That's how snowballs start happening. 

 

Especially on maps like Prokorovka, where the number of Lights determines who gets the spots, players tend to think how other players should play instead of understanding what is actually happening. 

 

If I, in my HWK12, don't go 0-1 line and instead go to the hill and spot from the bushes overlooking the encounter cap (which is incredibly potent for both sides), I'll get blamed for the deaths at the 0-1 line and the eventual sweep from the backline, despite how much spotting damage I do on the other side of the map. 

 

 

 

This makes sense to me. What frustrates me in a light on Prok is that the pubbies will often only react to the tanks spotted. It is equally valuable to know where the enemy isn't as it lets you know that they are likely either camping or on the other flank but unspotted.

 

 



Markd73 #12 Posted Oct 22 2019 - 16:26

    Major

  • Players
  • 32795 battles
  • 5,528
  • Member since:
    04-20-2011

View Postethics_gradient, on Oct 22 2019 - 14:28, said:

I think that autoloaders contribute to the likelihood of blowouts.  Before autoloaders, if you made a mistake, you might be hit once.  But now, if you make a mistake, you might eat an entire clip, especially if they are in a position to keep you permatracked.

 

Autoloaders are a force multiplier but all they are doing is accelerating the consequences of a mistake. They have to spend significant amounts of time being unhelpful while on reload.

 

The bigger issue is people blundering into situations where autoloaders can feast on them.






1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users