Jump to content


Shall we play a game? What type of battle were these?


  • Please log in to reply
28 replies to this topic

Poll: balanced? (13 members have cast votes)

You have to complete 100 battle in order to participate this poll.

Pilsen 12-0

  1. balanced (40-60% odds) (6 votes [46.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 46.15%

  2. unbalanced (60-70% or 30-40% odds) (3 votes [23.08%])

    Percentage of vote: 23.08%

  3. very unbalanced (>70% or <30% odds) (4 votes [30.77%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.77%

Tundra 10-0

  1. balanced (40-60% odds) (6 votes [46.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 46.15%

  2. unbalanced (60-70% or 30-40% odds) (2 votes [15.38%])

    Percentage of vote: 15.38%

  3. very unbalanced (>70% or <30% odds) (5 votes [38.46%])

    Percentage of vote: 38.46%

Redshire 8-0

  1. balanced (40-60% odds) (6 votes [46.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 46.15%

  2. unbalanced (60-70% or 30-40% odds) (4 votes [30.77%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.77%

  3. very unbalanced (>70% or <30% odds) (3 votes [23.08%])

    Percentage of vote: 23.08%

Mountain Pass 0-7

  1. balanced (40-60% odds) (5 votes [38.46%])

    Percentage of vote: 38.46%

  2. unbalanced (60-70% or 30-40% odds) (3 votes [23.08%])

    Percentage of vote: 23.08%

  3. very unbalanced (>70% or <30% odds) (5 votes [38.46%])

    Percentage of vote: 38.46%

Himmelsdorf 4-0

  1. balanced (40-60% odds) (6 votes [46.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 46.15%

  2. unbalanced (60-70% or 30-40% odds) (1 vote [7.69%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.69%

  3. very unbalanced (>70% or <30% odds) (6 votes [46.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 46.15%

Airfield 8-0

  1. balanced (40-60% odds) (8 votes [61.54%])

    Percentage of vote: 61.54%

  2. unbalanced (60-70% or 30-40% odds) (1 vote [7.69%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.69%

  3. very unbalanced (>70% or <30% odds) (4 votes [30.77%])

    Percentage of vote: 30.77%

Fjord 0-4

  1. balanced (40-60% odds) (6 votes [46.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 46.15%

  2. unbalanced (60-70% or 30-40% odds) (2 votes [15.38%])

    Percentage of vote: 15.38%

  3. very unbalanced (>70% or <30% odds) (5 votes [38.46%])

    Percentage of vote: 38.46%

Mines 11-0

  1. balanced (40-60% odds) (6 votes [46.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 46.15%

  2. unbalanced (60-70% or 30-40% odds) (1 vote [7.69%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.69%

  3. very unbalanced (>70% or <30% odds) (6 votes [46.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 46.15%

Vote Hide poll

NeatoMan #1 Posted Nov 03 2019 - 17:31

    Major

  • Players
  • 31605 battles
  • 25,175
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011

This is an offshoot of bikebudha's/SoTrue's/SimplyPzB2's steamroll or snowball thread.

 

I am posting replays of 8 battles in my new tier 8 VK100.01P from last evening.  I haven't played in a few months and it showed.  I won 6, and lost 2.   These are ALL the battles I played last night (replays run at 2x speed to keep it short).   No XVM.   No cherry picking of blowouts.  No filtering the replays.

 

Three of the eight battles were blowouts.  Can you tell how unbalanced they were?   How balanced do you think they were compared to the other battles that weren't blowouts? 

 

Supposedly skill unbalance is obvious to some people.  Let's see just how obviously unbalanced one night of battles really are.  Focus on the mini map, and how the battles progressed.

 

Pilsen, win 12-0

 

Tundra, win 10-0

 

Redshire, win 8-0

 

Mountain Pass, loss 0-7

 

Himmelsdorf, win 4-0

 

Airfield, win 8-0

 

Fjord, loss 0-4

 

Mines, win 11-0



Festung #2 Posted Nov 03 2019 - 19:01

    First lieutenant

  • Players
  • 39125 battles
  • 548
  • Member since:
    06-14-2011
Any battle where the losing team didn't score a kill was outside the expected results, assume one significant deviation. The replays are too grainy to see what tanks were on each side, so the indication of armor unbalance still needs to be examined. The issue of skill unbalance is estimated but the rapid killing of the losing team players supports a judgement. Since you were on the winning team six out of the eight battles, I assume that you are a better player than most and therefore are biased against the accusation against MM while those of us lesser players consider the sequential defeats as support the accusation.  

Flarvin #3 Posted Nov 03 2019 - 19:10

    Major

  • Players
  • 57338 battles
  • 18,379
  • Member since:
    03-29-2013

Since I do not use xvm, I can only tell if a match is fun, if I look each players’ stats. 
 

And then the match is only fun, if those stats match my made up version of what is fair. 
 

But even with all that, it’s only 60% correct. But since I can predict 60% as fun, it is 100% correct. Unfun matches are not fun, because they are unfun. lol 



NeatoMan #4 Posted Nov 03 2019 - 19:33

    Major

  • Players
  • 31605 battles
  • 25,175
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011

View PostFestung, on Nov 03 2019 - 13:01, said:

Any battle where the losing team didn't score a kill was outside the expected results, assume one significant deviation. The replays are too grainy to see what tanks were on each side, so the indication of armor unbalance still needs to be examined. The issue of skill unbalance is estimated but the rapid killing of the losing team players supports a judgement. Since you were on the winning team six out of the eight battles, I assume that you are a better player than most and therefore are biased against the accusation against MM while those of us lesser players consider the sequential defeats as support the accusation.  

so your contention is that armor trumps skill in many of these battles. SBMM proponents claim skill is supposed to be the biggest factor. 

 

Also, I did rather poorly in all but one battle, so I didn't really help sway the battles too much, but that's not the point.  It's about team balance and how battles unfold. 

 

btw, let the videos run a few seconds and they become less grainy and you can read the lineups



spud_tuber #5 Posted Nov 04 2019 - 04:58

    Major

  • Players
  • 68202 battles
  • 11,044
  • Member since:
    08-26-2013
Interesting experiment.   Wonder if certain parties will be brave enough to take public guesses as to which battles fall into which category?



NeatoMan #6 Posted Nov 04 2019 - 13:05

    Major

  • Players
  • 31605 battles
  • 25,175
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011

View Postspud_tuber, on Nov 03 2019 - 22:58, said:

Interesting experiment. Wonder if certain parties will be brave enough to take public guesses as to which battles fall into which category?

I doubt it.

 

"unfair plane!"



NeatoMan #7 Posted Nov 04 2019 - 16:48

    Major

  • Players
  • 31605 battles
  • 25,175
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011
Added an additional question to the poll.  Still waiting on the usual suspects to make their guesses.  Why so hesitant?

Da_Craw #8 Posted Nov 04 2019 - 18:23

    Major

  • Players
  • 28709 battles
  • 3,357
  • [GOLB] GOLB
  • Member since:
    05-30-2014
On the Himmelsdorf battle, half the slow tanks took themselves out of the battle for way too much time to go hill.  The only saving grace was that there were enough idiots on both teams who did it.

NeatoMan #9 Posted Nov 05 2019 - 14:48

    Major

  • Players
  • 31605 battles
  • 25,175
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011

View PostDa_Craw, on Nov 04 2019 - 12:23, said:

On the Himmelsdorf battle, half the slow tanks took themselves out of the battle for way too much time to go hill.  The only saving grace was that there were enough idiots on both teams who did it.


I remember when I started playing, taking a heavy to the hill was like going valley on lakeville.  Then came encounter mode where everyone screamed at you if you didn't go hill.  Now the players can't tell the difference between the two modes and go hill all the time, except when they take the hill they just sit there and snipe..



NeatoMan #10 Posted Nov 06 2019 - 19:00

    Major

  • Players
  • 31605 battles
  • 25,175
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011
I wonder why none of the usual SBMM supporters will make a guess as to which of those games were unbalanced?  Should be rather easy according to them.

Nixeldon #11 Posted Nov 06 2019 - 19:19

    Major

  • Players
  • 68058 battles
  • 3,051
  • Member since:
    10-30-2011

View PostNeatoMan, on Nov 06 2019 - 13:00, said:

I wonder why none of the usual SBMM supporters will make a guess as to which of those games were unbalanced?  Should be rather easy according to them.

Maybe they feel it is better to remain silent and be considered liars than to comment on the matter and remove all doubt?



NeatoMan #12 Posted Nov 06 2019 - 19:37

    Major

  • Players
  • 31605 battles
  • 25,175
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011

View PostNixeldon, on Nov 06 2019 - 13:19, said:

Maybe they feel it is better to remain silent and be considered liars than to comment on the matter and remove all doubt?

I'll take their silence as an admission that they can't tell the difference.   They know they are wrong



golruul #13 Posted Nov 06 2019 - 23:50

    Major

  • Players
  • 26129 battles
  • 2,989
  • Member since:
    11-05-2011

Post the replays so they can download and have XVM give them the proper answers.  Then the real discussion can begin!



Kliphie #14 Posted Nov 07 2019 - 16:09

    Major

  • Players
  • 41071 battles
  • 9,321
  • [GFLC] GFLC
  • Member since:
    07-20-2012
Bump incase our friends just haven't seen this yet.  

BoghieWanKanobie #15 Posted Nov 07 2019 - 18:30

    Major

  • Players
  • 11789 battles
  • 2,221
  • [WCTNT] WCTNT
  • Member since:
    04-10-2016

My vote, based on deployment and initial spots (proxy for deployment for opposition):

 

  1. Pilson:  G > R (Unbalanced, but workable for both)
  2. Tundra:  G = R 
  3. Redshire:  G > R (Unbalanced, but workable for both)
  4. Mountain Pass;  G < R (R deployed well, G not so much, but recoverable)
  5. Himmelsdorf:  G = R
  6. Airfield:  G = R
  7. Fjord:  G << R  (Yowser, Loss on Deployment)
  8. Mines:  G >> R  (Yowser, Win on Deployment)

 

So, obviously the final score did not correlate strongly with my guesstimates of player skill.  The initial deployment does seem to have a correlation.  But, Pilson, Tundra, Redshire, Airfield, and Fjords were divergent from what I would have expected to some extent based on what I saw at minute two or three,  Some were better games than expected, some were worse.  Kinda demonstrates your point.  There are A LOT of factors in winning and losing.  One ammo rack can change a game.

 

So, at some point it would be cool to see the 'Chance of Win' for each of these games.  My guess is that it will broadly determine the initial deployment.  After that player skill is kinda hidden from the scope of this review.  But, good players will move quickly to where they are needed and will not go places where their gun and armor are neutralized (Ice Road for example).  In general, the marginal lanes are where the Timids defend and the Muppets attack.

 

On the other hand, I have watched exceptional players go against meta just to have fun.  They will PUSH Ice Road and absolutely dominate the enemy.  And, if the enemy are Timids the roll is on from minute two/three since Timids will usually be found in the back (long shots) trying to hide and having no view range.  The folks on your team that 'pushed' Ice Road did not push.  They plodded and traded shots. 



NeatoMan #16 Posted Nov 07 2019 - 19:41

    Major

  • Players
  • 31605 battles
  • 25,175
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011
I will post win chances based on player PRs and player damage/kill results plus upload full replays so those with XVM can see the ratings for themselves, and/or double check if they want. Would be interesting to compare my win chance formula with theirs.

Gonna give it a few more days. I also got another set of battles for the next round.

NeatoMan #17 Posted Nov 08 2019 - 14:39

    Major

  • Players
  • 31605 battles
  • 25,175
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011
One more day.  Will any of the usual suspects step up and make a guess?  or do they not have the balls to stand by their claims?

BoghieWanKanobie #18 Posted Nov 08 2019 - 21:39

    Major

  • Players
  • 11789 battles
  • 2,221
  • [WCTNT] WCTNT
  • Member since:
    04-10-2016

Bump for Ballots from the SSBM crowd:playing:



F0R_M07H3R_RU5514 #19 Posted Nov 09 2019 - 01:31

    Major

  • Players
  • 62778 battles
  • 7,061
  • [SIGH_] SIGH_
  • Member since:
    07-25-2012

View PostNeatoMan, on Nov 06 2019 - 13:37, said:

I'll take their silence as an admission that they can't tell the difference.   They know they are wrong

 

You know you should never let the facts get in the way of a good story.



NeatoMan #20 Posted Nov 09 2019 - 02:54

    Major

  • Players
  • 31605 battles
  • 25,175
  • Member since:
    06-28-2011

Well, I think it's obvious they don't want to play. ... shame.  

 

pilsen 12-0,  79%   very unbalanced

http://wotreplays.eu...man-vk_100_01_p

Spoiler

 

tundra 10-0,  51%   balanced

http://wotreplays.eu...man-vk_100_01_p

Spoiler

 

redshire 8-0,  49%   balanced

http://wotreplays.eu...man-vk_100_01_p

Spoiler

 

mountain pass 0-7,  47%   balanced

http://wotreplays.eu...man-vk_100_01_p

Spoiler

 

himmelsdorf 4-0,  47%   balanced

http://wotreplays.eu...man-vk_100_01_p

Spoiler

 

airfield 8-0,  55%    balanced

http://wotreplays.eu...man-vk_100_01_p

Spoiler

 

fjord 0-4,  53%    balanced

http://wotreplays.eu...man-vk_100_01_p

Spoiler

 

mines 11-0,  43%   balanced

http://wotreplays.eu...man-vk_100_01_p

Spoiler

 


Edited by NeatoMan, Nov 09 2019 - 03:21.





1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users