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umkhulu #1 Posted Nov 17 2019 - 22:56

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I thought I would resume this discussion in a new thread, since the original one seems to be dedicated to trolls, ganging up on one poor individual. Anyway, you can refer back here for more background on this.

http://forum.worldoftanks.com/index.php?/topic/614966-editedthis-commie-game/page__pid__12313605#entry12313605

 

I promised Kobra a response to his query and have produced the results for 10,000 simulated battle for each or three winrate categories.

 

View PostVooDooKobra, on Nov 17 2019 - 01:36, said:

interesting but since each game results are independent of the last even if the skills are matched perfectly how does probability theory keep a single player from losing many games in a row?  also how does this theory take the human randomness element into account?  i.e. mistakes or events that cannot be accounted for.  for example your best player getting ammoracked early

 

Posted Image

 

The results show that players are going to experience losing streaks no matter how skilled they are and it also shows that in the case of balanced teams, losing streaks are pretty much offsett by winning streaks which is what I said, but of course, proof is always demanded even when things seem obvious.

 

Just to mention the graphs....

  • each bracket creates a pretty decent bell curve offset from the mean according to winrate.
  • for clarity, I have chosen to show only streaks above 6.
  • I have split them into winning and losing streaks, losing being denoted as negative for technical reasons.
  • the rest, I think, is self explanatory.

 

I don't think one can account for 'human randomness' - one can only hope that it is random and will balance out.

 


Edited by umkhulu, Nov 17 2019 - 23:00.


mohawkdriver #2 Posted Nov 17 2019 - 23:02

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Now my hair hurts.

 

It's a game.

 

That is all.



cloudwalkr #3 Posted Nov 17 2019 - 23:05

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Your interpretation of the other (useless) thread is interesting to say the least.

NeatoMan #4 Posted Nov 17 2019 - 23:07

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and???   all you've done is show the sky is blue.  What's the point?  Kind of debunks the idea that the streaks we get are an indication the MM is NOT random.  Streaks are to be expected in any random system.   Balancing teams will not remove any of the randomness


Edited by NeatoMan, Nov 17 2019 - 23:16.


umkhulu #5 Posted Nov 17 2019 - 23:18

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View PostNeatoMan, on Nov 17 2019 - 23:07, said:

and???   all you've done is show the sky is blue.  What's the point?  Kind of debunks the idea that the streaks we get are an indication the MM is NOT random.  Streaks are to be expected in any random system.

 

Well I have produced some data to help explain this to others which is more than you have done recently. Why is it that you adopt such a derogatory attitude in all your responses.- is it some sort of an ego thing?

 



Markd73 #6 Posted Nov 17 2019 - 23:23

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I'm curious about what you define as a troll.

Is it only when someone disagrees with you, or only when you cannot figure out how to refute their counter argument?

 

Perhaps it is both, as I've seen you do it in both circumstances.



umkhulu #7 Posted Nov 17 2019 - 23:35

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View PostMarkd73, on Nov 17 2019 - 23:23, said:

I'm curious about what you define as a troll.

Is it only when someone disagrees with you, or only when you cannot figure out how to refute their counter argument?

 

Perhaps it is both, as I've seen you do it in both circumstances.

 

Reflect back seriously on all the posts you have made on the forum. You may just find your answer.

 



Markd73 #8 Posted Nov 18 2019 - 00:28

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View Postumkhulu, on Nov 17 2019 - 22:35, said:

 

Reflect back seriously on all the posts you have made on the forum. You may just find your answer.

 

 

Ah so it is both when people disagree and when they refute your position and you have no other response.

 

Thanks!!

 

Note - for what it is worth I've never resorted to calling you a troll. I don't think you are. I just think you have a lot of misguided ideas that are not backed by credible evidence. 



NeatoMan #9 Posted Nov 18 2019 - 00:28

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View Postumkhulu, on Nov 17 2019 - 17:18, said:

Well I have produced some data to help explain this to others which is more than you have done recently.

it's been done before.

http://forum.worldof...esults/#topmost

 

Block Quote

Why is it that you adopt such a derogatory attitude in all your responses.- is it some sort of an ego thing?

 Bad math and science do not deserve a pat on the head, especially when it's done on purpose. 



Lowtech4 #10 Posted Nov 18 2019 - 07:06

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View Postumkhulu, on Nov 17 2019 - 22:56, said:

I thought I would resume this discussion in a new thread, since the original one seems to be dedicated to trolls, ganging up on one poor individual. Anyway, you can refer back here for more background on this.

http://forum.worldoftanks.com/index.php?/topic/614966-editedthis-commie-game/page__pid__12313605#entry12313605

 

I promised Kobra a response to his query and have produced the results for 10,000 simulated battle for each or three winrate categories.

 

 

Posted Image

 

The results show that players are going to experience losing streaks no matter how skilled they are and it also shows that in the case of balanced teams, losing streaks are pretty much offsett by winning streaks which is what I said, but of course, proof is always demanded even when things seem obvious.

 

Just to mention the graphs....

  • each bracket creates a pretty decent bell curve offset from the mean according to winrate.
  • for clarity, I have chosen to show only streaks above 6.
  • I have split them into winning and losing streaks, losing being denoted as negative for technical reasons.
  • the rest, I think, is self explanatory.

 

I don't think one can account for 'human randomness' - one can only hope that it is random and will balance out.

 


It's a computer game...it's "rigged" by default. There is no random in a piece of software...just calculated ranges. 

 

Why is this so hard to understand?



cheapbooks #11 Posted Nov 18 2019 - 11:56

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when you lose games, you get better matchmaking. when you win games, you get worse matchmaking. there is win/loss based matchmaking in the matchmaker

Sonny_2013 #12 Posted Nov 18 2019 - 16:14

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i think it kind of works like that too...if the game feels you are winning too much you'll start tog et stuck wht [edited]tier groups and vice versa...sometimes i win games againdt teams im not supposed to according to stats and vice versa also..kind fo sheit its like that tbh and when the RHG kicks in then you're completely useless all over...but lately or over the last few years ive probably won more than i lost....ive come up from a 46 percent winrate and when im actually trying to win and do good and learn the game a bit as i still am at 28k games...i just learned camo....lol and scouting ive never played a light tnak up until a month or two ago i skipped all light tank missions and did the other 4 with honours for my reward tanks go 2 shy away from teh t55a all without doing light missions...so i dont think i did too bad there but i have win streaks and losing streaks it can be frustrating i guess...i like heavy tanks alot...mediums ar eok but i own like 13 heavies...so im almost at 49 percent winrate from 46 percent 10k or so battles ago so im getting better.

umkhulu #13 Posted Nov 18 2019 - 16:20

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View PostNeatoMan, on Nov 18 2019 - 00:28, said:

it's been done before.

http://forum.worldoftanks.com/index.php?/topic/484551-streaks-numerical-results/#topmost

 

 Bad math and science does not deserve a pat on the head, especially when it's done on purpose. 

 

I must confess I never thought of looking back, but no harm in replicating the exercise. After all, we have a whole new bunch of player who continue to complain about streaks which means they didn't look back either.

 

And just to reinforce my contentention that the majority of players are disadvantaged, not only by longer and more frequent losing streak, but also by a matchmaker which favors above average players - here is the latest split of players by PR.

 

Posted Image

 

It really is time to level the playing field!.



NeatoMan #14 Posted Nov 18 2019 - 16:27

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View Postumkhulu, on Nov 18 2019 - 10:20, said:

I must confess I never thought of looking back, but no harm in replicating the exercise. After all, we have a whole new bunch of player who continue to complain about streaks which means they didn't look back either.

 

And just to reinforce my contentention that the majority of players are disadvantaged, not only by longer and more frequent losing streak, but also by a matchmaker which favors above average players - here is the latest split of players by PR.

 

It really is time to level the playing field!.


They are only disadvantaged when they try to punch above their level.  Why the need to rush up the tiers so fast?   I didn't get past tier 7 until after few thousand battles, and didn't get a tier ten for at least a year after that.  

 

They want to jump into the deep end without learning how to swim, and then complain that WG isn't handing out life preservers.



umkhulu #15 Posted Nov 18 2019 - 17:49

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View PostNeatoMan, on Nov 18 2019 - 16:27, said:


They are only disadvantaged when they try to punch above their level.  Why the need to rush up the tiers so fast?   I didn't get past tier 7 until after few thousand battles, and didn't get a tier ten for at least a year after that.  

 

They want to jump into the deep end without learning how to swim, and then complain that WG isn't handing out life preservers.

 

Possible but not practical. Apart from limiting the numbers and increasing queue times for high tiers, it would create a whole new hierarchy and a new bunch of complainers because (a) a whole lot of the previously privileged would suddenly become the underdogs and (b) the winrates of players at tiers 9 and 10 would more than likely plummet.

 

tier Yellow Green Blue Purple
9 71% 26% 3% 0%
10 60% 32% 7% 1%
Grand Total 67% 28% 4% 0%

 

I think that balancing the teams makes far more sense!.

 



NeatoMan #16 Posted Nov 18 2019 - 21:04

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View Postumkhulu, on Nov 18 2019 - 11:49, said:

Possible but not practical. Apart from limiting the numbers and increasing queue times for high tiers, it would create a whole new hierarchy and a new bunch of complainers because (a) a whole lot of the previously privileged would suddenly become the underdogs and (b) the winrates of players at tiers 9 and 10 would more than likely plummet.

I didn't say WG should force them.   More people need to be honest with themselves about their capabilities, and play at tiers more appropriate for their skill.  If they want to play in the deep end, go for it, just don't expect the entire game to change because you can't swim. 

 

It all boils down to players not wanting to get any better, and demanding that everyone else adopt their attitude toward the game.  "There is nothing wrong with the way I play... the game is wrong".   They don't want to suffer any negative consequences of their terrible play.  There is plenty of opportunity to play with others of similar skill level.  Their egos won't let them.



umkhulu #17 Posted Nov 18 2019 - 23:15

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View PostNeatoMan, on Nov 18 2019 - 21:04, said:

I didn't say WG should force them.   More people need to be honest with themselves about their capabilities, and play at tiers more appropriate for their skill.  If they want to play in the deep end, go for it, just don't expect the entire game to change because you can't swim. 

 

It all boils down to players not wanting to get any better, and demanding that everyone else adopt their attitude toward the game.  "There is nothing wrong with the way I play... the game is wrong".   They don't want to suffer any negative consequences of their terrible play.  There is plenty of opportunity to play with others of similar skill level.  Their egos won't let them.

 

I didn't say that WG should force them either, but what if they all happened to listen to your advice???

 

Not only are you a past master of putting words into other's mouths, seems you are now putting thoughts into other player's heads. Just give them a level playing field and they will do the rest.

 



NeatoMan #18 Posted Nov 19 2019 - 00:00

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View Postumkhulu, on Nov 18 2019 - 17:15, said:

I didn't say that WG should force them either, but what if they all happened to listen to your advice???

 

Not only are you a past master of putting words into other's mouths, seems you are now putting thoughts into other player's heads. Just give them a level playing field and they will do the rest.

They have a level playing field.  Most of the players they run into in the newb tiers are in the same boat.   They don't need the shiny new tier 8 premium to compete.

 

The only change I'd make is give them 100% crews, free 6th sense, and some free crew retraining tokens



Lapdog1 #19 Posted Nov 19 2019 - 00:05

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Predictable streaks.....its the players fault. Same old same old on this toxic forum.

 



NeatoMan #20 Posted Nov 19 2019 - 00:08

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View PostLapdog1, on Nov 18 2019 - 18:05, said:

Predictable streaks.....its the players fault. Same old same old on this toxic forum.

yep, streaks are bound to happen, regression to the mean is bound to happen.   probability and statistics can be a b!tch






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