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Is the matchmaker broken?

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Speed_Metal #1 Posted Jan 24 2020 - 11:29

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I'm very frustrated...I had a decent day going, doing well and winning more than I lost. Then I got put into 8 blowout losses in a row. Games not lasting 5 minutes with half the team dead in under 3 minutes. It doesn't matter how well you play, you lose over and over and over. I'm not a great or even good player but I am fair. This is getting ridiculous. 90% of my days start with 4 losses in 5 games, all blowouts. I realize I can lose and I have no issue with that but 8 blowouts in a row...something doesn't seem right. Any assistance in understanding how or why this happens would be appreciated.

JakeTheMystic #2 Posted Jan 24 2020 - 11:39

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That's what happens when so few tanks are stupidly op while the rest are quite mediocre in comparison. Nearly every tier has a premium/reward tank that outclasses the rest and its been a serious problem for the last few years now. MM will just continue to get worse until WG decides to balance tanks. 

Wanderjar #3 Posted Jan 24 2020 - 12:00

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I've noticed, more frequently now than previously, that if you have a good streak or some really good dmg games (win or lose) that the pubbies tend to get pissed by this and the gold frequency goes up in an attempt to win more etc.

of course this has nothing to do with WR but it makes the pubbies feel better lol

Whistling_Death_ #4 Posted Jan 24 2020 - 13:48

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View PostSpeed_Metal, on Jan 24 2020 - 05:29, said:

I'm very frustrated...I had a decent day going, doing well and winning more than I lost. Then I got put into 8 blowout losses in a row. Games not lasting 5 minutes with half the team dead in under 3 minutes. It doesn't matter how well you play, you lose over and over and over. I'm not a great or even good player but I am fair. This is getting ridiculous. 90% of my days start with 4 losses in 5 games, all blowouts. I realize I can lose and I have no issue with that but 8 blowouts in a row...something doesn't seem right. Any assistance in understanding how or why this happens would be appreciated.


You don't get put into anything. 

 

Keeping track of wins and losses causes losses.  Why keep track?  What's the point?  There is no upside to doing that.

 

When you win a few in a row, you start thinking to yourself, "I wonder how long I can keep this winning streak going?".   The result?  Pressure, your gameplay goes down and lo and behold, you start losing.  The reverse happens with a few losses, you get angry, frustrated, your gameplay goes down and bingo, loss after loss.  Stop doing this to yourself.

 

What you're doing to yourself is causing losses. Keeping track of wins and losses causes losses. I know, because when I was a new player I too did exactly that.  I started to notice it felt more like work than a fun game.  So I stopped keeping track of wins and losses.  The result?  I started winning a lot more battles and having a lot more fun! :) I don't check my won/loss ratio and how I've done for the day until the end of the day.  Before then, it makes no difference.  It is what it is.

 

When we keep track of our wins/losses and we have a few losses, then we start to push and we don't play as well, which causes more losses. Then we start to get angry and push harder, which further deteriorates our gameplay, which causes even more losses. Keep track of your fun-rate and the rest takes care of itself. :)


 



SlappedbyRommel #5 Posted Jan 24 2020 - 13:48

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View PostWanderjar, on Jan 24 2020 - 12:00, said:

I've noticed, more frequently now than previously, that if you have a good streak or some really good dmg games (win or lose) that the pubbies tend to get pissed by this and the gold frequency goes up in an attempt to win more etc.

of course this has nothing to do with WR but it makes the pubbies feel better lol

Had the same won 8 out of 11 then 7 out of 10 the next day low and behold MM decides to throw me to the bottom of the pile did not matter what tank I used a T6 went into a T8, T7 went into a T9 or T8 into T10 yup many losses for the next 2 days  a T7 heavy is no match for a T9 heavy might as well be the slow scout at that point game does not become enjoyable - WG, (stop changing my swear words which I had here), come on guys get this crap fixed either balance tanks or fix the f'd up mm.


Edited by SlappedbyRommel, Jan 24 2020 - 13:49.


Whistling_Death_ #6 Posted Jan 24 2020 - 14:02

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Also, Matchmaker doesn't determine wins or losses one way or the other.  That's up to the players.

 

Imagine if one football team lost one of their 11 players on defense and they had to play with only 10 players vs. 11. Would they win? No. Now imagine if they lost two players, so it was 9 vs. 11. Would they win? No. Would the score become a blowout? Yes, of course, as it would be in any team based game. Perfectly normal. So it goes in W.o.T. too when one team loses a couple of players, or any team based game. This is normal.

 

When we have 15 players on a team selected randomly, about 1/3 will be good, 1/3 will be average and 1/3 will be below average. They will win battles 48-52% of the time. These are the laws of mathematics.



Whistling_Death_ #7 Posted Jan 24 2020 - 14:04

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View PostSlappedbyRommel, on Jan 24 2020 - 07:48, said:

Had the same won 8 out of 11 then 7 out of 10 the next day low and behold MM decides to throw me to the bottom of the pile did not matter what tank I used a T6 went into a T8, T7 went into a T9 or T8 into T10 yup many losses for the next 2 days  a T7 heavy is no match for a T9 heavy might as well be the slow scout at that point game does not become enjoyable - WG, (stop changing my swear words which I had here), come on guys get this crap fixed either balance tanks or fix the f'd up mm.

 

Matchmaker doesn't throw you anywhere.  Matchmaker creates matches via tank tier and type. That's it.  Everything else is random.

 

When we have 15 players on a team selected randomly, about 1/3 will be good, 1/3 will be average and 1/3 will be below average. They will win battles 48-52% of the time. These are the laws of mathematics.


Edited by Whistling_Death_, Jan 24 2020 - 14:05.


Pipinghot #8 Posted Jan 24 2020 - 15:49

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View PostSpeed_Metal, on Jan 24 2020 - 05:29, said:

I'm very frustrated...I had a decent day going, doing well and winning more than I lost. Then I got put into 8 blowout losses in a row. Games not lasting 5 minutes with half the team dead in under 3 minutes. It doesn't matter how well you play, you lose over and over and over. I'm not a great or even good player but I am fair. This is getting ridiculous. 90% of my days start with 4 losses in 5 games, all blowouts. I realize I can lose and I have no issue with that but 8 blowouts in a row...something doesn't seem right. Any assistance in understanding how or why this happens would be appreciated.

The first thing you need to understand about WoT is that blowouts are normal, there's nothing wrong with them and they should not be surprising. That's because this is a single-death-per-battle game, it doesn't have respawn battles like most games. Every game that uses single-death-per-battle has blowouts as a common, ordinary occurrence.

 

Throughout the history of WoT the average game time has been under 5 minutes, don't let the 15 minute max time mislead you, most battles take much less time. If a game actually lasts the entire 15 minutes that means that  both teams screwed up, a lot, and blew opportunities to take the other team down.

 

Once you understand these two things you can let go of being frustrated by blowouts or short battles, they are perfectly normal in this game and you should expect to see a lot of them. The only thing that matters is how well you play and whether it's a Win or a Loss at the end of the battle, it doesn't matter how fast you get there or what the margin of victory is. If you think that battles should take longer, or that there should be fewer blowouts, you're going to have to let go of those ideas. Blowouts are common, as they should be with a single-death game, and the average battle time is much less than 15 minutes, which is also normal for a single-death game. This is a fast paced game, don't let the 15 minute max time fool you into thinking otherwise.

 

Your goal is to learn how to get your gun into the fight as soon as possible, as often as possible, without getting yourself blown up in the process. Early damage is best damage, as long as you do more damage than you take.



Pipinghot #9 Posted Jan 24 2020 - 15:50

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View PostWanderjar, on Jan 24 2020 - 06:00, said:

I've noticed, more frequently now than previously, that if you have a good streak or some really good dmg games (win or lose) that the pubbies tend to get pissed by this and the gold frequency goes up in an attempt to win more etc.

of course this has nothing to do with WR but it makes the pubbies feel better lol

I hope you're joking, because that makes no sense.

 

"The pubbies" have absolutely no idea if you're having a good streak or how much damage you've been doing over multiple games. Unless you believe that most of your opponents are psychic this is pretty much nonsense (or, again, hopefully it was just a joke).

 



Speed_Metal #10 Posted Jan 25 2020 - 10:55

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View PostJakeTheMystic, on Jan 24 2020 - 02:39, said:

That's what happens when so few tanks are stupidly op while the rest are quite mediocre in comparison. Nearly every tier has a premium/reward tank that outclasses the rest and its been a serious problem for the last few years now. MM will just continue to get worse until WG decides to balance tanks. 

Thanks, this seems the most logical.



Speed_Metal #11 Posted Jan 25 2020 - 11:14

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View PostWhistling_Death_, on Jan 24 2020 - 04:48, said:


You don't get put into anything. 

 

Keeping track of wins and losses causes losses.  Why keep track?  What's the point?  There is no upside to doing that.

 

When you win a few in a row, you start thinking to yourself, "I wonder how long I can keep this winning streak going?".   The result?  Pressure, your gameplay goes down and lo and behold, you start losing.  The reverse happens with a few losses, you get angry, frustrated, your gameplay goes down and bingo, loss after loss.  Stop doing this to yourself.

 

What you're doing to yourself is causing losses. Keeping track of wins and losses causes losses. I know, because when I was a new player I too did exactly that.  I started to notice it felt more like work than a fun game.  So I stopped keeping track of wins and losses.  The result?  I started winning a lot more battles and having a lot more fun! :) I don't check my won/loss ratio and how I've done for the day until the end of the day.  Before then, it makes no difference.  It is what it is.

 

When we keep track of our wins/losses and we have a few losses, then we start to push and we don't play as well, which causes more losses. Then we start to get angry and push harder, which further deteriorates our gameplay, which causes even more losses. Keep track of your fun-rate and the rest takes care of itself. :)


 

Thanks for you professional psychological analysis, unfortunately it's irrelevant and moot since the OP was not about winning or losing but how and why blowout losses occur.

 

"When we have 15 players on a team selected randomly, about 1/3 will be good, 1/3 will be average and 1/3 will be below average. They will win battles 48-52% of the time. These are the laws of mathematics. "

 

 

About your mathematical hypothesis... it appears you are saying the Match Maker is unfair and unbalanced since I have a 46% win rate. Furthermore if you toss a coin; the mathematical averages of winning are 49.9 to 50.1 over any length of say 1000 flips. After 6000 battles I should be at least 48%

 

Lets expedite your erroneous claim a bit more...

 

IS-3... 77 games  42% wins

 

SU 130PM... 167 games  40% wins

 

8,8 cm Pak 43 Jagdtiger... 123 games  37% wins

 

112... 280 games  41% wins

 

I could list many more examples. My point is, 90 of my losses are blowouts where I have little to no chance of changing the outcome. Also 90% of my games are mid to low tier, less view range, less hit points, less armor, less firepower etc, etc. Anyway, I suppose I see a different perspective losing so many games in blowout fashion.



Speed_Metal #12 Posted Jan 25 2020 - 11:20

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View PostPipinghot, on Jan 24 2020 - 06:49, said:

 

Your goal is to learn how to get your gun into the fight as soon as possible, as often as possible, without getting yourself blown up in the process. Early damage is best damage, as long as you do more damage than you take.

 

I agree this is the "goal", however when half your team is dead after 3 minutes, you're fortunate to get off 1 or 2 shots before being drilled my a swarm of 5 enemy tanks. When you get spotted by a tier 10, you get instantly pummeled and don't get a single shot off (I play mostly 8's). Thanks for your reply.



Pipinghot #13 Posted Jan 25 2020 - 13:06

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View PostSpeed_Metal, on Jan 25 2020 - 05:20, said:

View PostPipinghot, on Jan 24 2020 - 06:49, said:

Your goal is to learn how to get your gun into the fight as soon as possible, as often as possible, without getting yourself blown up in the process. Early damage is best damage, as long as you do more damage than you take.

I agree this is the "goal", however when half your team is dead after 3 minutes, you're fortunate to get off 1 or 2 shots before being drilled my a swarm of 5 enemy tanks. When you get spotted by a tier 10, you get instantly pummeled and don't get a single shot off (I play mostly 8's). Thanks for your reply.

If you're getting swarmed by 5 enemy tanks then you're either a) over extending so that your team can't support you or b) hanging back and being ineffective for so long that by the time you're in the fight it's too late.

 

Everyone has to learn the game the same way you do, which includes being on teams that melt quickly. There's nothing special about this, there's no reason that you can't learn the game just like everyone else has done. When you use "half your team is dead after 3 minutes" as an excuse that's all it is, making excuses. If you want to get better you'll do the work to get better, just like everyone else in your shoes. If you want the game to give you longer battles and more wins without doing the work, it's not going to happen. You are the only person who's responsible for your win rate. You have to enjoy the game on your own terms, if you don't want to do the work to improve then the win rate you have is the win rate you get, it all depends on what you want and whether you're willing to do the work to make that goal happen.



Whistling_Death_ #14 Posted Jan 25 2020 - 19:12

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View PostSpeed_Metal, on Jan 25 2020 - 05:14, said:

Thanks for you professional psychological analysis, unfortunately it's irrelevant and moot since the OP was not about winning or losing but how and why blowout losses occur.

 

"When we have 15 players on a team selected randomly, about 1/3 will be good, 1/3 will be average and 1/3 will be below average. They will win battles 48-52% of the time. These are the laws of mathematics. "

 

 

About your mathematical hypothesis... it appears you are saying the Match Maker is unfair and unbalanced since I have a 46% win rate. Furthermore if you toss a coin; the mathematical averages of winning are 49.9 to 50.1 over any length of say 1000 flips. After 6000 battles I should be at least 48%

 

Lets expedite your erroneous claim a bit more...

 

IS-3... 77 games  42% wins

 

SU 130PM... 167 games  40% wins

 

8,8 cm Pak 43 Jagdtiger... 123 games  37% wins

 

112... 280 games  41% wins

 

I could list many more examples. My point is, 90 of my losses are blowouts where I have little to no chance of changing the outcome. Also 90% of my games are mid to low tier, less view range, less hit points, less armor, less firepower etc, etc. Anyway, I suppose I see a different perspective losing so many games in blowout fashion.

 

 

Imagine if one football team lost one of their 11 players on defense and they had to play with only 10 players vs. 11. Would they win? No. Now imagine if they lost two players, so it was 9 vs. 11. Would they win? No. Would the score become a blowout? Yes, of course, as it would be in any team based game. Perfectly normal. So it goes in W.o.T. too when one team loses a couple of players, or any team based game. This is normal.

 



Klaatu_Nicto #15 Posted Jan 25 2020 - 21:03

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View PostPipinghot, on Jan 24 2020 - 06:49, said:

The first thing you need to understand about WoT is that blowouts are normal, there's nothing wrong with them and they should not be surprising. That's because this is a single-death-per-battle game, it doesn't have respawn battles like most games. Every game that uses single-death-per-battle has blowouts as a common, ordinary occurrence.

 

Throughout the history of WoT the average game time has been under 5 minutes, don't let the 15 minute max time mislead you, most battles take much less time. If a game actually lasts the entire 15 minutes that means that  both teams screwed up, a lot, and blew opportunities to take the other team down.

 

Once you understand these two things you can let go of being frustrated by blowouts or short battles, they are perfectly normal in this game and you should expect to see a lot of them. The only thing that matters is how well you play and whether it's a Win or a Loss at the end of the battle, it doesn't matter how fast you get there or what the margin of victory is. If you think that battles should take longer, or that there should be fewer blowouts, you're going to have to let go of those ideas. Blowouts are common, as they should be with a single-death game, and the average battle time is much less than 15 minutes, which is also normal for a single-death game. This is a fast paced game, don't let the 15 minute max time fool you into thinking otherwise.

 

Your goal is to learn how to get your gun into the fight as soon as possible, as often as possible, without getting yourself blown up in the process. Early damage is best damage, as long as you do more damage than you take.

 

When I first started playing blowouts were not normal. They did happen but they were much, much less frequent than they have been the past several years.



VooDooKobra #16 Posted Jan 26 2020 - 00:02

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View PostKlaatu_Nicto, on Jan 25 2020 - 13:03, said:

 

When I first started playing blowouts were not normal. They did happen but they were much, much less frequent than they have been the past several years.

and yet back in the early days you could have lots more heavies one one team, lots more top tier on one team.  it was top heavy when looking from a template aspect.  so the game was much more unbalanced and somehow had less blowouts?



Pipinghot #17 Posted Jan 26 2020 - 06:21

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View PostKlaatu_Nicto, on Jan 25 2020 - 15:03, said:

View PostPipinghot, on Jan 24 2020 - 06:49, said:

The first thing you need to understand about WoT is that blowouts are normal, there's nothing wrong with them and they should not be surprising. That's because this is a single-death-per-battle game, it doesn't have respawn battles like most games. Every game that uses single-death-per-battle has blowouts as a common, ordinary occurrence.

 

Throughout the history of WoT the average game time has been under 5 minutes, don't let the 15 minute max time mislead you, most battles take much less time. If a game actually lasts the entire 15 minutes that means that  both teams screwed up, a lot, and blew opportunities to take the other team down.

 

Once you understand these two things you can let go of being frustrated by blowouts or short battles, they are perfectly normal in this game and you should expect to see a lot of them. The only thing that matters is how well you play and whether it's a Win or a Loss at the end of the battle, it doesn't matter how fast you get there or what the margin of victory is. If you think that battles should take longer, or that there should be fewer blowouts, you're going to have to let go of those ideas. Blowouts are common, as they should be with a single-death game, and the average battle time is much less than 15 minutes, which is also normal for a single-death game. This is a fast paced game, don't let the 15 minute max time fool you into thinking otherwise.

 

Your goal is to learn how to get your gun into the fight as soon as possible, as often as possible, without getting yourself blown up in the process. Early damage is best damage, as long as you do more damage than you take.

When I first started playing blowouts were not normal. They did happen but they were much, much less frequent than they have been the past several years.

That's incorrect. It may have felt like they were less frequent in the past, but that wasn't the case. You're smart enough to know what confirmation bias is and how it attacks memories of the past, that's all this is. Blowouts have always occurred at about the same rate in the game. The only time that there was a bona fide change in the rate of blowouts was when auto-loaders were introduced, and even then the change was pretty small. it wasn't big enough to be perceived in day-to-day game play, only becoming visible when a couple of people did some data analysis on blowout rates.

 

I don't mean this as in insult, but as a friendly reality check, you're seeing the past through rose colored lenses, blowouts have always occurred at about the same rate.



tod914 #18 Posted Jan 26 2020 - 06:28

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View PostKlaatu_Nicto, on Jan 25 2020 - 15:03, said:

 

When I first started playing blowouts were not normal. They did happen but they were much, much less frequent than they have been the past several years.

 

Especially the frequency of these 5 minute matches.  It's over the top on NA. 



Klaatu_Nicto #19 Posted Jan 26 2020 - 19:32

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View PostPipinghot, on Jan 25 2020 - 21:21, said:

That's incorrect. It may have felt like they were less frequent in the past, but that wasn't the case. You're smart enough to know what confirmation bias is and how it attacks memories of the past, that's all this is. Blowouts have always occurred at about the same rate in the game. The only time that there was a bona fide change in the rate of blowouts was when auto-loaders were introduced, and even then the change was pretty small. it wasn't big enough to be perceived in day-to-day game play, only becoming visible when a couple of people did some data analysis on blowout rates.

 

I don't mean this as in insult, but as a friendly reality check, you're seeing the past through rose colored lenses, blowouts have always occurred at about the same rate.

 

I didn't take it as an insult.

 

I don't think it was confirmation bias which made me start having some of the thoughts I started having in 2014 or 15. That was when I started noticing team quality was declining and led me to post thoughts such as "it's not about which team is better, it's now about which team is less worse."



Pipinghot #20 Posted Jan 27 2020 - 10:09

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View PostKlaatu_Nicto, on Jan 26 2020 - 13:32, said:

View PostPipinghot, on Jan 25 2020 - 21:21, said:

That's incorrect. It may have felt like they were less frequent in the past, but that wasn't the case. You're smart enough to know what confirmation bias is and how it attacks memories of the past, that's all this is. Blowouts have always occurred at about the same rate in the game. The only time that there was a bona fide change in the rate of blowouts was when auto-loaders were introduced, and even then the change was pretty small. it wasn't big enough to be perceived in day-to-day game play, only becoming visible when a couple of people did some data analysis on blowout rates.

 

I don't mean this as in insult, but as a friendly reality check, you're seeing the past through rose colored lenses, blowouts have always occurred at about the same rate.

I didn't take it as an insult.

 

I don't think it was confirmation bias which made me start having some of the thoughts I started having in 2014 or 15. That was when I started noticing team quality was declining and led me to post thoughts such as "it's not about which team is better, it's now about which team is less worse."

Whether or not the quality of players has declined is immaterial to the issue of steamrolls. Steamrolls are not based on or caused by player quality or even by differences between the teams. The fundamental cause of steamrolls is single-death-per-battle which means that even if your hypothesis is true, even if the average player skill has declined over the years, that in no way indicates an increase in the number of steamrolls. There is no relationship between average-player-skill and the number of steamrolls in the game, the percentage of steamrolls has always been about the same up to this day, which is because steamrolls are caused by single-death-per-battle.







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