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All the proof needed to prove mm is broken.

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Killer_Tomato_Noob #61 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 16:32

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View PostButtknuckle, on Jun 04 2020 - 05:44, said:

It takes a special sort of effort to read through 50 plus responses and not understand what is being said. Are you being willfully obstinate or do you simply lack reading comprehension skills?

 


Do you all have to be dismissive [edited]and truly not comprehend what is being said and MOCK THE POSTER for his concerns?

Really you people truly amaze me in your steadfast refusal to even look at the issue. Just seems like only SELECTED people get to benefit from this supposedly random MM while others get hosed.

Doesn't seem very fair to me at all. Seems like you all are interested in keeping the status quo than addressing an issue. You all win I'll shut up now and you all can keep farming the new guys in your packs of pro players.

 



umkhulu #62 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 16:58

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View PostXeraux_TV, on May 29 2020 - 21:23, said:

OP do you know what the snowball effect is?

 

Yes and it is certainly applicable to unbalanced teams!..... :)

 



spud_tuber #63 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 17:02

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View PostKiller_Tomato_Noob, on Jun 04 2020 - 09:32, said:


Do you all have to be dismissive [edited]and truly not comprehend what is being said and MOCK THE POSTER for his concerns?

Really you people truly amaze me in your steadfast refusal to even look at the issue. Just seems like only SELECTED people get to benefit from this supposedly random MM while others get hosed.

Doesn't seem very fair to me at all. Seems like you all are interested in keeping the status quo than addressing an issue. You all win I'll shut up now and you all can keep farming the new guys in your packs of pro players.

 

Read carefully.   I'll try to explain as clearly and and politely. 

 

Several players have kept track of the team skill balance, margin of victory, battle duration, etc over at least 1000 of their battles.  This data had been looked at and analyzed.   So far, everyone who has publicly shared their raw data has had pretty much the exact same results.

 

Same quality teammates (not counting the individual keeping track) vs opponents on average. 

 

Very similar distribution of skill imbalanced vs balanced, with relatively balanced battles being much more common.

 

Little difference in margin of victory or battle duration between balanced and moderately imbalanced battles.

 

Some increase in margin of victory and decrease in battle duration at extreme skill imbalances, but such extreme imbalances are themselves rare.

 

[If you feel any of the above isn't true for you,  I encourage you to run something like WoTNumbers for 1k+ battles then share the database from it.  Chances are, when you look at actual data you'll see it is true for you as well, and your feelings were wrong, but there is always the possibility that you're the exception]

 

The two important takeaways from the above are that: 

 

Blowouts are more often a product of something* other than skill imbalance than a product of skill imbalance.

 

Since all players get the same distribution of teammates and opponents, any differences in win rates are due to the individual players' contributions to their teams over time, and not due to the MM.

 

*that something is mostly likely the lack of HP regen and respawning allowing small advantages to snowball into large advantages. 

 

 



_Tsavo_ #64 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 17:09

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View PostKiller_Tomato_Noob, on Jun 04 2020 - 10:32, said:


Do you all have to be dismissive [edited]and truly not comprehend what is being said and MOCK THE POSTER for his concerns?

Really you people truly amaze me in your steadfast refusal to even look at the issue. Just seems like only SELECTED people get to benefit from this supposedly random MM while others get hosed.

Doesn't seem very fair to me at all. Seems like you all are interested in keeping the status quo than addressing an issue. You all win I'll shut up now and you all can keep farming the new guys in your packs of pro players.

 

 

Your concerns are misplaced.  You even stated in the first post "you think" which is not actually proof or facts.  

 

You think match maker picks and chooses winners.  It doesn't.  It's blind to it.  You want to not be saddled with bad teams?  Work on being better.  

 

 



umkhulu #65 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 17:14

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View PostKiller_Tomato_Noob, on Jun 04 2020 - 16:32, said:


Do you all have to be dismissive [edited]and truly not comprehend what is being said and MOCK THE POSTER for his concerns?

Really you people truly amaze me in your steadfast refusal to even look at the issue. Just seems like only SELECTED people get to benefit from this supposedly random MM while others get hosed.

Doesn't seem very fair to me at all. Seems like you all are interested in keeping the status quo than addressing an issue. You all win I'll shut up now and you all can keep farming the new guys in your packs of pro players.

 

 

I'm totally behind you on this one - unbalanced teams totally spoil the enjoyment of this game, but you are not going to convince any of the trolls on this forum of this fact. They have made it their life's work to oppose this view using every trick in the trolling handbook which include mocking, belittling, demeaning, insulting and a whole lot more. You will find that most players agree with you, but are not prepared to voice their views on this platform for obvious reasons!.... :)



spud_tuber #66 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 17:23

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View Postumkhulu, on Jun 04 2020 - 10:14, said:

 

I'm totally behind you on this one - unbalanced teams totally spoil the enjoyment of this game, but you are not going to convince any of the trolls on this forum of this fact. They have made it their life's work to oppose this view using every trick in the trolling handbook which include mocking, belittling, demeaning, insulting and a whole lot more. You will find that most players agree with you, but are not prepared to voice their views on this platform for obvious reasons!.... :)

You're mocked for your inability to understand statistics and logic much more than for your request for balanced teams, for the most part. 

 

However, I will admit that you will also be occasionally mocked for your desire to be carried, rather than learn to play the game.  You'd probably be mocked less for this last if you just admitted that was what you wanted instead of trying to hide it behind the aforementioned bad stats and logic, though.  



NeatoMan #67 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 17:34

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View Postumkhulu, on Jun 04 2020 - 11:14, said:

I'm totally behind you on this one - unbalanced teams totally spoil the enjoyment of this game, but you are not going to convince any of the trolls on this forum of this fact. They have made it their life's work to oppose this view using every trick in the trolling handbook which include mocking, belittling, demeaning, insulting and a whole lot more. You will find that most players agree with you, but are not prepared to voice their views on this platform for obvious reasons!.... :)

The only thing spoiling the enjoyment is your complete and totally unnecessary adherence to what some third party mod shows on your screen.

 

The difference between what you experience in battle with balanced teams and random MM is unrecognizable.   Turn off those damn mods and here is what happens in the two scenarios:

 

battle duration - insignificant difference

blowouts - insignificant difference

your personal performance - insignificant difference

win rate - pulled toward 50%

 

All that changes is overall win rates.  Your everyday and single battle experience does not change.

 

What's the difference between a battle that you lose 15-7 that was stacked vs one that you lose 15-7 that was balanced?   "b...b...but we had a chance"   That "chance" didn't help you or change the game play.   YOU STILL LOST.   It's going to end up with that same margin just as often in both scenarios.

 

So what have you really improved?  "I win more"    That's what it all boils down to.   You want to keep playing like crap, not do anything to help your teams win, but not have to deal with the consequences.   and you say we are the selfish ones. :sceptic: 

 



umkhulu #68 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 17:39

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View Postspud_tuber, on Jun 04 2020 - 17:23, said:

You're mocked for your inability to understand statistics and logic much more than for your request for balanced teams, for the most part. 

 

However, I will admit that you will also be occasionally mocked for your desire to be carried, rather than learn to play the game.  You'd probably be mocked less for this last if you just admitted that was what you wanted instead of trying to hide it behind the aforementioned bad stats and logic, though.  

 

I honestly believe that the game would be more enjoyable for all if WG made some effort to balance teams taking cognoscence of player tank combination.

 

I have always said that the outcome of battles is just TOO predictable!!!!.....

 



NeatoMan #69 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 17:42

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View Postumkhulu, on Jun 04 2020 - 11:39, said:

I honestly believe that the game would be more enjoyable for all if WG made some effort to balance teams taking cognoscence of player tank combination.

 

I have always said that the outcome of battles is just TOO predictable!!!!.....

but they aren't.  You only think they are predictable. Do you know which specific 70% win chance battles you are going to win, and which you are going to lose?  You can only guess, and you won't know how good your guesses are without keeping track for many battles.   The only thing balance affects is what happens after many battles

 

Your SBMM arguments need to be rephrased as "the game would be more enjoyable if WG let me win more".  That's what you are really asking for.


Edited by NeatoMan, Jun 04 2020 - 17:50.


umkhulu #70 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 18:10

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View PostNeatoMan, on Jun 04 2020 - 17:34, said:

The only thing spoiling the enjoyment is your complete and totally unnecessary adherence to what some third party mod shows on your screen.

 

The difference between what you experience in battle with balanced teams and random MM is unrecognizable.   Turn off those damn mods and here is what happens in the two scenarios:

 

battle duration - insignificant difference

blowouts - insignificant difference

your personal performance - insignificant difference

win rate - pulled toward 50%

 

All that changes is overall win rates.  Your everyday and single battle experience does not change.

 

What's the difference between a battle that you lose 15-7 that was stacked vs one that you lose 15-7 that was balanced?   "b...b...but we had a chance"   That "chance" didn't help you or change the game play.   YOU STILL LOST.   It's going to end up with that same margin just as often in both scenarios.

 

So what have you really improved?  "I win more"    That's what it all boils down to.   You want to keep playing like crap, not do anything to help your teams win, but not have to deal with the consequences.   and you say we are the selfish ones. :sceptic: 

 

 

I'm playing EU server without mods. I'm doing OK generally with over 1k WN8, Some sessions are particularly good and some are particularly bad, but I have a winrate just over 50%. Post battle stats show these prolonged winning and losing streaks to be directly related to team balance. Yes I know that my overall winrate will supposedly end up reflecting my contribution after a LARGE number of battles, but WHY do we have to endure a dismal gaming experience for an entire evening and sometimes even for the better part of a week when simply balancing the teams would improve things greatly!.....

 

Posted Image

 


Edited by umkhulu, Jun 04 2020 - 18:11.


NeatoMan #71 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 18:22

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View Postumkhulu, on Jun 04 2020 - 12:10, said:

I'm playing EU server without mods. I'm doing OK generally with over 1k WN8, Some sessions are particularly good and some are particularly bad, but I have a winrate just over 50%. Post battle stats show these prolonged winning and losing streaks to be directly related to team balance. Yes I know that my overall winrate will supposedly end up reflecting my contribution after a LARGE number of battles, but WHY do we have to endure a dismal gaming experience for an entire evening and sometimes even for the better part of a week when simply balancing the teams would improve things greatly!.....

Streaks have more to do the way the coin lands than they have to do with imbalance.  Most of the time there are balanced or favored teams in those streaks that just happened to fail; exacerbating what would normally have been a fairly unremarkable session.

 

Bad game sessions probably have more to do with to tank mismatches, missions and the meta game more than skill imbalances.

 

btw, you are playing far lower tiers over there than you currently are over here.  That's one reason why you are breaking even. 


Edited by NeatoMan, Jun 04 2020 - 18:30.


umkhulu #72 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 18:30

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View PostNeatoMan, on Jun 04 2020 - 18:22, said:

Streaks have more to do the way the coin lands than they have to do with imbalance.  Most of the time there are balanced or favored teams in those streaks that just happened to fail; exacerbating what would normally have been a fairly unremarkable session.

 

Bad game sessions probably have more to do with to tank mismatches, missions and the meta game more than skill imbalances.

 

Streaks have everything to do with the way a random matchmaker creates unbalanced teams!.

 

As I said in my previous post.... "game would be more enjoyable for all if WG made some effort to balance teams taking cognoscence of player tank combination"....



NeatoMan #73 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 18:34

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View Postumkhulu, on Jun 04 2020 - 12:30, said:

Streaks have everything to do with the way a random matchmaker creates unbalanced teams!.

nope.  even a perfectly balanced coin flip will have streaks.  if you were to compare your win/loss streaks to streaks of unbalanced teams (not counting yourself, because you can't blame the MM for what you bring to battle) I guarantee you'd find your streaks aren't all because of unbalanced battles.  Balanced teams, and even good teams fail too.  What causes long streaks are battles that should have been won, but weren't.

 

Out of our 10k battles here's the streak breakdown.   Negative numbers are streaks of win chance less than 43%.  There were four separate 7-game streaks of unfavored battles in our 10k+ data set.   Positive numbers are streaks of win chances greater than the 57%.   There were no streaks longer than 10.  Streaks of nothing but balanced games (43% to 57% win chance) happened about as often as the favored/unfavored streaks.  Granted these aren't all consecutive battles, but enough to catch the streaks that would have occurred while WoTnumbers was running.

 

unfavored streak #
-10 0
-9 0
-8 0
-7 4
-6 4
-5 20
-4 69
-3 158
-2 488
   
   
favored streak #
2 530
3 167
4 78
5 26
6 7
7 3
8 2
9 1
10 0

 

Block Quote

As I said in my previous post.... "game would be more enjoyable for all if WG made some effort to balance teams taking cognoscence of player tank combination"....

 I meant newer OP tanks vs older power crept tanks.   As far as that goes WG tank balance is horrible.  There are plenty of tanks that are at least a half tier higher in capabilities and others that are at least a half tier below, yet they get counted as equals by the MM


Edited by NeatoMan, Jun 04 2020 - 21:39.


Oh_Hell #74 Posted Jun 04 2020 - 20:21

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View PostKiwiMark67, on May 29 2020 - 13:34, said:

My first battle of the day lasted 14m30s, ended in a base cap 14-14.  Is that proof that MM is working?

Most of my battles are close, maybe 20% or so end with 5 or less tanks destroyed from the winning side.

 

Um, the game doesn't make you take an IQ test prior to playing, so blaming MM for a failure really isn't fair. You want to say they should base it on the players skill level, well if that player got their scores playing mostly clan battles and their clan is good, that doesn't make them good. They could be the person hiding in the back all the time and the clan does all the work, yet they get a high player rating. The move over to open play and they slant the stats. Same thing for someone playing a new tank, or one they don't play often. Doesn't mean the are a bad player, but they are jut unfamiliar with the current tank they are in. Same thing, they would skew the player stats. Instead of ringers you'd have dingers. It could be argued that it's done purposefully to get those players on the perpetual losing side to buy their way up, sell gold, perks, etc. Maybe it's true, but I'd think they would lose more potential customers that way, but I don't know what their sales revenue is, and if it were so you'd have most players with win rates of about 20%. The only way to truly make is fair is either everyone plays the same tank, but that would suck, so maybe everyone plays at the same level. No more 2 tier difference. Say goodbye to some of those badges you like to win because the really good players are going to clean your clock all the time.



black_colt #75 Posted Jun 05 2020 - 01:51

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View Postspud_tuber, on Jun 04 2020 - 08:02, said:

Read carefully.   I'll try to explain as clearly and and politely. 

 

Several players have kept track of the team skill balance, margin of victory, battle duration, etc over at least 1000 of their battles.  This data had been looked at and analyzed.   So far, everyone who has publicly shared their raw data has had pretty much the exact same results.

 

Same quality teammates (not counting the individual keeping track) vs opponents on average. 

 

Very similar distribution of skill imbalanced vs balanced, with relatively balanced battles being much more common.

 

Little difference in margin of victory or battle duration between balanced and moderately imbalanced battles.

 

Some increase in margin of victory and decrease in battle duration at extreme skill imbalances, but such extreme imbalances are themselves rare.

 

[If you feel any of the above isn't true for you,  I encourage you to run something like WoTNumbers for 1k+ battles then share the database from it.  Chances are, when you look at actual data you'll see it is true for you as well, and your feelings were wrong, but there is always the possibility that you're the exception]

 

The two important takeaways from the above are that: 

 

Blowouts are more often a product of something* other than skill imbalance than a product of skill imbalance.

 

Since all players get the same distribution of teammates and opponents, any differences in win rates are due to the individual players' contributions to their teams over time, and not due to the MM.

 

*that something is mostly likely the lack of HP regen and respawning allowing small advantages to snowball into large advantages. 

 

 


Exactly - without a verifiable large data-set, that can be peer-reviewed, proof cannot be claimed.  No large data-set equals opinion.

 

Opinions and/or observations are perfectly fine and valid but individuals who post opinions as [fact/proof] should expect their [fact/proof] to be questioned on the Forum[s].

 

Having a verifiable large data-set is even more critical if you want to convince others with a title of [All the proof needed to prove mm is broken]



SwiftCommander #76 Posted Jun 05 2020 - 17:38

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The real problem is not MM, it is the almost 50/50 split of players into two groups.  Half the players have all the tanks they want and only play the top tanks that fit the meta.  The other half are still tiering up tanks, playing sniping Tank Destroyers and tanks that are seriously underpowered.  MM makes no attempt to sort these out.  So at any time you can get a team of players that are all playing overpowered tanks, against a team of seriously slow underpowered tanks.

 

I can pretty much look at the line ups and see a wash-out coming before it starts, just from the tank line-up.   The game is completely one-dimensional right now.  80% of the tanks could be removed from the game, and it would be improved, because the vast majority of tanks are completely uncompetitive.  You can still have a good game in them if you are on the right team, and get in the right place, but you are being carried.

 

They also might as well remove all spotting mechanics and just make people visible all the time.  Anyone trying to play a stealth game is a moron.  You cant hide.  A bush on a ridgeline helps, but you can't shoot and hide at high tiers, so all it does is help you get the first shot, and then it doesn't matter if you have terrible camo or good camo, you are dead.

 

They really shouldn't be wasting time with equipment that isn't going to make a blind bit of difference to the game except make it worse.  Enough people will get the spotting equipment, so that the camo equipment will be worthless.  The only equipment that will be worth anything is equipment that raises your dpm.

 

What I really don't understand is why write all that code for spotting, and create a game that could be very complex, and then tune it in a way that makes it childishly simple and mindless.



VooDooKobra #77 Posted Jun 05 2020 - 19:26

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View PostSwiftCommander, on Jun 05 2020 - 09:38, said:

The real problem is not MM, it is the almost 50/50 split of players into two groups.  Half the players have all the tanks they want and only play the top tanks that fit the meta.  The other half are still tiering up tanks, playing sniping Tank Destroyers and tanks that are seriously underpowered.  MM makes no attempt to sort these out.  So at any time you can get a team of players that are all playing overpowered tanks, against a team of seriously slow underpowered tanks.

 

I can pretty much look at the line ups and see a wash-out coming before it starts, just from the tank line-up.   The game is completely one-dimensional right now.  80% of the tanks could be removed from the game, and it would be improved, because the vast majority of tanks are completely uncompetitive.  You can still have a good game in them if you are on the right team, and get in the right place, but you are being carried.

 

They also might as well remove all spotting mechanics and just make people visible all the time.  Anyone trying to play a stealth game is a moron.  You cant hide.  A bush on a ridgeline helps, but you can't shoot and hide at high tiers, so all it does is help you get the first shot, and then it doesn't matter if you have terrible camo or good camo, you are dead.

 

They really shouldn't be wasting time with equipment that isn't going to make a blind bit of difference to the game except make it worse.  Enough people will get the spotting equipment, so that the camo equipment will be worthless.  The only equipment that will be worth anything is equipment that raises your dpm.

 

What I really don't understand is why write all that code for spotting, and create a game that could be very complex, and then tune it in a way that makes it childishly simple and mindless.

1. can you back up that number that 80% of the tanks in this game are not competitive? can i see your data you gathered on this?  how many tanks have you actually tracked that are underperforming?

2. some tanks are stealthier than others ie. e25 played right tanks with high camo rating can hide as well sometimes that first shot is the most important one.  people do hide especially TDs and light tanks







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