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620 battles, interesting winrate stats. Draw your own conclusions.

winrate stats premium boosters booster wins losses

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Jaspo #1 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 02:42

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Following a months-long drop in my winrate with no identifiable cause, I kept track of my win/losses for 620 straight battles, and also kept track of whether I had premium time or experience boosters active.

 

Experience booster active (both with and without prem account active): 184 wins 224 losses 3 draws 411 battles 44.77% WR

 

Premium account active (both with and without exp booster active): 195 wins 241 losses 6 draws 442 battles 44.12% WR

 

Premium account & experience booster both active: 155 wins 195 losses 2 draws 352 battles 44.03% WR

 

Neither active: 65 wins 56 losses 3 draws 124 battles 52.42% WR

 

And as a bonus,

During a win mission (only kept track of this once): 10 wins 15 losses 1 draw 26 battles 38.46% WR

 

Apparently my feeling that I was losing more when I activated boosters wasn't just a feeling, at least not in this case.

 

Edit: I'm somewhat interested in working out some streaks analysis too, but I'm not sure of the most useful way to do so. Other things that I was interested in tracking but didn't due to the complexity of doing so - overall rng in each battle, top/mid/bottom tier, blowout or not.


Edited by Jaspo, Sep 07 2020 - 13:12.


NateRocko #2 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 02:48

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When you play with boosters, you feel inclined to make the most of them. And thus you push yourself into "extreme tryhard mode", which actually results in you performing significantly worse than you would if you were just playing normally. It's not the boosters, it's you.

Jaspo #3 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 02:56

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View PostNateRocko, on Sep 01 2020 - 19:48, said:

When you play with boosters, you feel inclined to make the most of them. And thus you push yourself into "extreme tryhard mode", which actually results in you performing significantly worse than you would if you were just playing normally. It's not the boosters, it's you.

I'm sorry, do you know me? No, no you don't, and you're jumping to conclusions nontheless. I don't do extreme tryhard mode, no. There's not a significant difference between my play on and off boosters (edit: that I am aware of), and even if there was, each individual player has, statistically, a rather limited ability to influence the battle, being only 1 of 15 participants on the team.

 

Makes me think that survival rate would've been another interesting thing to track, though. Also, individual performance per battle (simply, good, bad, or meh)


Edited by Jaspo, Sep 02 2020 - 03:52.


spud_tuber #4 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 02:58

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View PostJaspo, on Sep 01 2020 - 19:56, said:

I'm sorry, do you know me?

Invites people to draw their own conclusions....

Gets mad when they do...



Jaspo #5 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:03

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View Postspud_tuber, on Sep 01 2020 - 19:58, said:

Invites people to draw their own conclusions....

Gets mad when they do...

Not mad, just a bit surprised that you're stating something as solid fact when you have no way of knowing if it is.



Suicidal_Enemy #6 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:05

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View PostNateRocko, on Sep 01 2020 - 21:48, said:

When you play with boosters, you feel inclined to make the most of them. And thus you push yourself into "extreme tryhard mode", which actually results in you performing significantly worse than you would if you were just playing normally. It's not the boosters, it's you.

 

That's why I never use mine,

 

I tank myself thinking too much about it lol



spud_tuber #7 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:12

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View PostJaspo, on Sep 01 2020 - 20:03, said:

Not mad, just a bit surprised that you're stating something as solid fact when you have no way of knowing if it is.

So, you didn't mean draw your own conclusions, you meant draw the conclusion you have but don't want to say..

 

Namely, that the game is rigged against you when you run boosters or prem time.. which of course makes no sense, as if WG were demonstrable doing that, no one would buy boosters or prem time. 

 



rockbutcher #8 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:14

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It could also be comparing 124 games against many more.  The way you present your data is muddled.  The first line is with no prem time but boosters activated?

 

I guess your point is that we should all quit playing prem with boosters?



Tao_Te_Hobbit #9 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:16

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View Postspud_tuber, on Sep 01 2020 - 18:58, said:

Invites people to draw their own conclusions....

Gets mad when they do...

 

Only wants conclusions drawn that support preexisting confirmation bias.  :facepalm:



GeneralButtBuster #10 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:16

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So wargaming makes you lose when you buy premium account.... right, that makes alot of sense.

Shinji_lkari #11 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:17

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According to noobmeter, your win rate has more or less plateaud during your last 6000 battles: https://www.noobmeter.com/player/na/Jaspo/1013274537/

Can you identify on the curve when you used boosters and when you did not use them?



Jaspo #12 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:18

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View Postspud_tuber, on Sep 01 2020 - 20:12, said:

So, you didn't mean draw your own conclusions, you meant draw the conclusion you have but don't want to say..

 

Namely, that the game is rigged against you when you run boosters or prem time.. which of course makes no sense, as if WG were demonstrable doing that, no one would buy boosters or prem time. 

 

Hmm? I just spent two months collecting statistics and just published them here. They speak for themselves. I don't care if that's the conclusion you're drawing but I think you're a bit blind to see that you're making a number of huge assumptions and making absolute statements about them as if they are proven fact.



stevezaxx #13 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:19

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View PostJaspo, on Sep 01 2020 - 20:42, said:

Following a months-long drop in my winrate with no identifiable cause, I kept track of my win/losses for 620 straight battles, and also kept track of whether I had premium time or experience boosters active.

 

Experience Booster Active: 184 wins 224 losses 3 draws 411 battles 44.77% WR

 

Premium Account: 195 wins 241 losses 6 draws 442 battles 44.12% WR

 

Premium Account & Experience Booster Active: 155 wins 195 losses 2 draws 352 battles 44.03% WR

 

Neither: 65 wins 56 losses 3 draws 124 battles 52.42% WR

 

And as a bonus,

During a win mission (only kept track of this once): 10 wins 15 losses 1 draw 26 battles 38.46% WR

 

Apparently my feeling that I was losing more when I activated boosters wasn't just a feeling, at least not in this case.

 

Edit: I'm somewhat interested in working out some streaks analysis too, but I'm not sure of the most useful way to do so. Other things that I was interested in tracking but didn't due to the complexity of doing so - overall rng in each battle, top/mid/bottom tier, blowout or not.

For a proper test you would have to play NOT KNOWING whether you had boosters or premium time running. that is difficult to do as they show on your results screen, in addition to in the garage.

perhaps have another person in your house turn on boosters/premium or not, and put tape over the parts of the garage that show them?

 

re you edit comment about complexity: take screenshots of the pre-battle line up for MM and top/middle/bottom, and screenshots of the results screens after for blowout. Turn replays on  for later review to help determine the RNG.

 



NeatoMan #14 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:22

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View PostJaspo, on Sep 01 2020 - 20:42, said:

Edit: I'm somewhat interested in working out some streaks analysis too, but I'm not sure of the most useful way to do so. Other things that I was interested in tracking but didn't due to the complexity of doing so - overall rng in each battle, top/mid/bottom tier, blowout or not.

Wald-wolfowitz runs test

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=3QXSYuG-KHU



Jaspo #15 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:26

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What's with all these comments accusing me of trying to prove something? I did an experiment and published the results. Made no conclusive statements about anything. Granted, it could've been done better in some ways; most experiments can. This is a hobby though, I'm not getting paid to do this, I'm not going to go crazy rigorous about it.

spud_tuber #16 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:35

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View PostJaspo, on Sep 01 2020 - 20:18, said:

Hmm? I just spent two months collecting statistics and just published them here. They speak for themselves. I don't care if that's the conclusion you're drawing but I think you're a bit blind to see that you're making a number of huge assumptions and making absolute statements about them as if they are proven fact.

Perhaps you'll note that I haven't put forth any conclusions, I only called you on your attempt to shut down a possible conclusion someone else had after inviting us to draw our own conclusions.

 

Other possible conclusions are sample size not large enough to draw conclusions from, deliberately falsified data, you playing "grinders" you aren't as good with when boosters and/or prem are running vs keepers without, etc.

 

 



Skairippa #17 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:36

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View PostJaspo, on Sep 01 2020 - 21:26, said:

What's with all these comments accusing me of trying to prove something? I did an experiment and published the results. Made no conclusive statements about anything. Granted, it could've been done better in some ways; most experiments can. This is a hobby though, I'm not getting paid to do this, I'm not going to go crazy rigorous about it.

You've been playing 5 years and have to ask that?



Queso99 #18 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:37

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Would have been cool and more accurate of the no-premium no-booster battles were the same number than the others... Otherwise data is not conclusive. Whos to say after those 124 battles things would drop to the same 44% WR at the 442nd battle?

Edited by Queso99, Sep 02 2020 - 03:38.


Markd73 #19 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:37

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View Postspud_tuber, on Sep 02 2020 - 01:58, said:

Invites people to draw their own conclusions....

Gets mad when they do...

 

Welcome to the forums. Stay frosty my friend.



Markd73 #20 Posted Sep 02 2020 - 03:40

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View PostJaspo, on Sep 02 2020 - 02:26, said:

What's with all these comments accusing me of trying to prove something? I did an experiment and published the results. Made no conclusive statements about anything. Granted, it could've been done better in some ways; most experiments can. This is a hobby though, I'm not getting paid to do this, I'm not going to go crazy rigorous about it.

 

Seriously? You tell people to draw their own conclusions and then immediately try and dismiss someone who does exactly that.







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