Teuen 101 its a little off-topic for discussion on El-Alamein but...
Teuen101, on May 28 2012 - 12:27, said:
...before I go into the facts of WW2 we can agree the war was over in 1940-41 without U.S help
and No we can't agree because it isn't true.
Teuen101, on May 28 2012 - 12:27, said:
Under this scenario, Great Britain likely would have survived further German attacks. However, it is highly unlikely that they would have retained any Asian territories, as Japan would have been able to capture and hold all such territory with little effective opposition (especially not having to contend with the U.S. Navy). The North African campaign would likely ended up as a stalemate, with the U.K. retaining Egypt but little else. Similarly, the U.S.S.R. would almost certainly have continued resistance, and it's successful relocation of industry to the Urals would have provided it with sufficient output to continue resistance.
Absolutely not. The Japanese unlike as many beleive were not invincible, well led, well organised, well trained or well equipped. Their early success such as Singapore were as much to do with the gross incompetance of Generals such as Percy disgracefully surrendering Singapore than to do with their superior military might. Their invasion of Burma succeeded temporarily until Gen. Slim took over because the British army was totally unprepared for Jungle warfare, it was too mechanised and tied to the roads. As soon as Slim took over and moved back to India he de-mechanised and demanded 100,000 mules to get off the roads. He then attacked the Japanese forcing them to attack him on his terms and annihilated them on masse. The idea that without help the British would have lost India and could not have retaken Burma is wrong and owes more to 'Operation Burma' (Yes-Hollywood lies) than to reality. The Japanese were badly led and appalingly trained and equipped. The native populations of Burma would never accept the brutal Japanese regimes and were very pro-British. The campaign in Burma is basically forgotten because the British don't like to remember the humiliation of Singapore and the Americans don't like to acknowledge that they had significant help in defeating Japan. Japan was so busy fighting an unwinnable war in China it could never devout its full attention, or limited resources to a single enemy. Pearl Harbor was always going to be a disaster for them and they knew it. The Japanese could barely hold on to what they had let alone take more.
The North African campaign was a disaster for the Germans who expended vast resources to support forces so far away when Britain had more easier supply choices to fight in North Africa. It wasn't going to end as a satlemate because the meditteranean sea is full of sunken Italian and German shipping from land based ships, and British subs and warships. The N.African campaign was intended to be a quick victory to break a key British supply route, as soon as they realised it was failure the Germans should have left, unfortunately they couldn't abandon Mussolinis troops who couldn't even defat the tribes of Ethiopia no matter how brutally they tried to.
Teuen101, on May 28 2012 - 12:27, said:
In this case, the U.K. almost certainly would sue for peace by 1941, to avoid being starved out by the U-boat attacks. A peace treaty would have been favored by Hitler, stripping the U.K. of most of the British Empire - thus, Germany would have ended up with practically all of British possessions in Africa (most critically, Egypt and the Suez, plus the Arabian oil fields), while Japan takes all of British Asia and likely India (though probably not Australia).
With the added material resources of the former British Empire, and a "winner's" glow, several other (formerly neutral) countries would likely have thrown in on the Axis side, in what would have become labeled a "anti-Bolshevik" crusade. Russia is unlikely to have been able to survive a multi-front war (assuming the Japanese would now enter the war against the U.S.S.R.), and a bolstered Wehrmacht would almost certainly have been able to retain all of Western Russia.
The result here would be a clear Axis victory, with the end of the British Empire, the partition of Russia, and an expansive German and Japanese empires.
Britain under Churhill would never had signed a worthless (look at Hitlers record on keeping treaties-it is second only to the number of promises made to the American Indians in terms of broken treaties) treaty. Until the blitz there certainly were some British politicians who wanted peace but after the blitz started they shut up and peace without victory was not an option. It was not going to be starved out any more than the people of Leningrad were starved out. The U-boat campaign was ceratinly success ful initially oweing more to poor coordination and communication among allied shipping than anything else. Once convoys started the U-Boat threat started to wane, along with ASDIC, the breaking of Enigma and active measure such as hedgehog (all British by the way) The U-boat campaign was as much a drain on Germany as it was on Britian (80% death threat for U-Boat crews)
Do you really beleive the former British subjects of Kenya, Uganda, South Africa or Nigeria and others would have accepted Nazi Rule any more readily than say Canada or New Zealand? Of course not. The Empire was more than a car to sign over to a new owner. And as I pointed out Japan would not have taken India and couldn't even hold Burma effectively against the tribes there.
I simply do not agree that Germany could have held Russia even with the help of previosuly neutral countries (which you dont mention but presumably you are thinking of Spain, Sweden and Turkey) The USSR simply was too big and had too many resources and of course had a leader for whom casualties were not an issue in the form of Stalin. Japan could barely keep what it had and couldn't take on more. It; the Government didn't want to but wasn't in control of the army, command of Japanese military policy was at field level with commanders bringing the country to wars it didn't want. (Read: 'Road of Bones' you might like it) Japanese governmental control of its military was poor.
Teuen101, on May 28 2012 - 12:27, said:
The critical contribution of the U.S.A. in 1941-42 is a continued modest stream of equipment to both Russia and Great Britain, plus the morale boost of "help is on the way". This leads to the main contribution of the U.S.A. in both 1943 and 1944 of vast quantities of war material (and significant, though not overwhelming, manpower), and critical technological support. Essentially, the U.S.A. provides a lifeline to allow both Russia and the U.K. to continue to fight in 1941-42, which in turn enables the Allies to stall for time while bringing on-line their vastly superior industrial and technological advantages. WW2 as an "attrition" war heavily favors the Allies, while WW2 as a "fast" war heavily favors the Axis. Keeping the U.S.A. out of WW2 is the critical factor in deciding whether WW2 would be an "attrition" or "blitzkrieg" war.
Yes, the help of the US was crucial in winning WW2, only a fool could argue otherwise. I don't agree that without the US that Germany and Japan could not have been defeated though. It would have taken a very long time and probably the war with Japan would have to ended with a treaty because the Allies without the US (and lets face it without the atomic bomb) could not face an invasion of Japan.